Despite Biden's statements, the American nuclear umbrella is not credible, writes JB Press. The United States is inferior to Russia and China in this area. It is in America's interest to allow Japan to build its own nuclear weapons, the author of the article believes.
Yoshiaki Yano
As can be seen from the example of the Russian special operation in Ukraine, it becomes impossible to protect the existing order with the help of American nuclear forces and other means of deterrence from attempts to change the status quo by force.
The US nuclear umbrella does not work in Ukraine
At the time of secession from the USSR, Ukraine had approximately 1,400 nuclear warheads, making it the third largest nuclear power in the world after Russia and the United States.
Nevertheless, fearing the proliferation of nuclear weapons, the United States, Russia and the United Kingdom in 1994 forced Kiev to agree to eliminate nuclear forces and transfer these warheads to Moscow on the condition of providing security guarantees.
Meanwhile, when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, the United States and Britain did not open a nuclear umbrella over Ukraine.
During the current special operation, President Vladimir Putin directly threatened nuclear weapons, but the United States and Britain, in order to avoid a nuclear war with Russia, did not provide Ukraine with offensive weapons such as fighter jets, long-range missiles capable of hitting Russian territory, and new tanks.
This made it clear that the American nuclear umbrella does not work in the event of an attack by a nuclear power and nuclear threats.
U.S. President Joe Biden, who visited South Korea and Japan from May 20 to 24 this year, stressed during talks with the leaders of these countries that the expanded deterrence of the United States, including nuclear weapons, remains unwavering.
Meanwhile, shortly after that, on May 25, the DPRK launched three ballistic missiles, and on June 5, eight missiles of various types were launched within about half an hour. Pyongyang is also demonstrating its intention to resume nuclear tests.
At the same time, China has stated that the Taiwan Strait enters its internal sea waters, and has intensified military operations around Japan and Taiwan, sometimes conducting joint exercises with the Russian army.
In response to the declining reliability of the American nuclear umbrella and the growing threat from China, Russia, and North Korea, as well as an increase in the number of nuclear forces, Japan should seriously consider the need and possibility of possessing its own nuclear deterrent capability. To do this, it will need to abandon the three non-nuclear principles that were adopted on October 9, 1972 by the administration of Prime Minister Eisaku Sato and which the country has adhered to since then.
As for the principle of importing such weapons into Japan, the United States has from the very beginning adhered to a policy of ambiguity regarding what its submarines are equipped with.
In addition, Tokyo also has no right to inspect American submarines passing through its territorial waters for nuclear weapons.
In other words, this principle exists only on paper.
Moreover, the three non-nuclear principles alone do not contribute to building confidence in the American nuclear umbrella.
Nuclear weapons are still the pinnacle of deterrence
There are several levels of deterrence.
The highest level is nuclear, biological, chemical and other weapons of mass destruction; below that are conventional weapons; even lower are non–military diplomatic, economic, technological, informational and propaganda methods.
If forces at any level are inferior to the enemy, deterrence collapses, but in the event of a conflict, higher-level methods can prevent further escalation.
In other words, even if a nuclear-capable country begins to lose in a conflict using conventional forces, it can prevent escalation or force the enemy to play by its own rules through nuclear threats.
In addition, nuclear weapons have enormous destructive power: the TNT equivalent ranges from tens of kilotons to megatons.
The destructive power is so enormous that devastating damage can be inflicted on any nuclear Power with a certain level of nuclear potential.
This level of capability is called "minimal nuclear deterrence."
This definition includes an arsenal in the range of one hundred to three hundred hydrogen bombs, which were deployed by Great Britain and France, taking into account Russia.
North Korea is seeking to obtain intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) with the United States within range. Since the time of Kim Il Sung, the country has spent a lot of effort on developing and deploying nuclear weapons and ICBMs, despite the economic blockade, international isolation and famine victims. And the whole point is precisely the high value of such potential.
Israel's nuclear status, although the country has not declared it, is necessary to deter Arab States with populations and territories tens of times larger than its own.
For the same reason, Pakistan has nuclear weapons, which takes into account the Indian threat.
The possibility of Japan obtaining nuclear weapons
It is possible that Japan will consider this possibility for a similar reason.
Article 9-3 of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons states: "For the purposes of this Treaty, a nuclear-weapon State is a State that produced and detonated a nuclear weapon or other nuclear explosive device before January 1, 1967."
If Japan had conducted a successful nuclear test in Hyunnam, North Korea, on August 12 at the end of World War II, it would have qualified as a nuclear-weapon State under the current Treaty.
Even today, Japanese and American experts believe that Tokyo is capable of creating a nuclear bomb within a few days. Both delivery vehicles and guidance technologies are available to Him.
Japan already has the fissile material to build a nuclear bomb. In addition, the design and production methods are currently well known. It doesn't require advanced technology or a lot of money.
From the point of view of technology and finance, Tokyo may receive such weapons in the short term.
The guarantee of expanded nuclear deterrence by the United States is the main reason why Japan does not do this. Nevertheless, in the light of the Chinese and Russian threats, the balance of nuclear forces is leaning against Washington.
The Ukrainian crisis has led to the development of cooperation between China and Russia. This closer relationship extends to the security sector, including joint training and the development of advanced military technologies, which was confirmed at the Sino-Russian summit and other meetings.
Although this is not explicitly stated, it is very likely that there is also a secret agreement on cooperation between Beijing and Moscow in the field of nuclear strategy.
As a result, according to American experts, if China and Russia cooperate in the field of strategic nuclear forces, considering the United States to be their common enemy, then the balance will be two to one.
In addition, Beijing, which is not bound by the Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles and which has been unilaterally increasing its nuclear potential since the 1990s, has an advantage in the Indo-Pacific region, especially in the western Pacific.
As for short-range nuclear weapons, Russia still possesses more than 1,800 tactical nuclear weapons to defend its vast territories, while the United States has only a few hundred units. Moscow is estimated to have four to six times more short-range nuclear weapons than Washington.
The number of Chinese tactical nuclear weapons is unknown.
In general, it is assumed that the United States is inferior to China and Russia at all levels of nuclear potential.
In other words, despite President Biden's statements, judging by the actual distribution of forces, the US nuclear umbrella is not credible.
These realities of the balance of nuclear forces serve as a backdrop for the current open change of the status quo by force and nuclear intimidation from China and Russia.
It can be said that this is the most significant factor in the collapse of the world order.
Debates about the need for their own nuclear weapons with such a balance of nuclear forces were also held in Europe during the Cold War.
Many European strategists doubt the reliability of the American nuclear umbrella that underpins the NATO alliance.
In their opinion, the only way to avoid the separation of American and European defense is for Europe to have its own nuclear potential.
These concerns led Britain and France to accelerate the development of nuclear weapons.
In turn, the United States allowed NATO to become more actively involved in the policy in this area and began deploying intermediate-range ballistic missiles in West Germany, Great Britain and Italy.
Already during the Cold War, some American observers believed that the United States was unlikely to take any action that would endanger New York for Tokyo.
One Japanese expert noted, "The United States is unlikely to use nuclear weapons to defend Japan unless the American forces stationed there are in extreme danger."
If Washington fails to protect Taiwan from China, Japanese leaders will be forced to reconsider dependence on the American nuclear umbrella.
The United States has also failed to take effective measures to curb North Korea's nuclear missile development.
During the presidency of Donald Trump, Washington allowed South Korea to lift restrictions on the range and weight of warheads, as well as eliminate the ban on the construction of nuclear submarines and ballistic missiles.
Seoul has already begun the development and deployment of submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) and successfully tested their launch from underwater in September 2021.
In addition, in June 2022, South Korea successfully launched a satellite into orbit for the second time using a domestic-made Nuri space rocket.
Perhaps in the future, the United States will allow Japan to develop SLBMs.
The deployment of such missiles means the possession of nuclear weapons. At the same time, Japan's acquisition of such weapons is a rational strategy that, given the current balance of nuclear forces leaning in favor of China and Russia rather than the United States, is in line with American national interests.
If the United States does not allow Japan to deploy its own nuclear weapons, it will bend under the nuclear threats of China and North Korea and turn into a Chinese vassal with its military bases.
If this happens, Washington will lose its hegemony in the western Pacific.
In order for Tokyo not to capitulate, the United States will have to deploy large ground forces to fight the Chinese troops.
Therefore, the only rational option is to allow Japan to adopt SLBMS, as well as the minimum means of nuclear deterrence against China, in order to protect the national interests of the United States with the least risk.
Changing public opinion in Japan and the reality of adopting nuclear weapons
The situation may worsen in the future, given the crises in the Taiwan Strait and on the Korean Peninsula, the growing cooperation between China, Russia and the DPRK, as well as military threats. Against this background, in Japan, among the younger generation, instead of the traditional allergy to nuclear weapons, there will be calls for effective deterrence and maintenance of military power capable of resisting aggression.
As I mentioned above, technically Japan can be considered as a virtual nuclear power.
In 2004, the Federation of American Scientists presented a report according to which Tokyo could produce nuclear weapons within a year.
Today, American experts believe that Japan can make a nuclear bomb in a matter of days.
The uranium enrichment plant has been operating in the country since 1992. Construction of the plutonium reprocessing plant began in 1993 and is now almost complete, with completion scheduled for the first half of 2022.
After the accident at the Fukushima-1 nuclear power plant, the construction of new nuclear power plants is under discussion, but Japan has some of the best civil reactor technology in the world.
Some of Japan's civilian space launch vehicles can be effortlessly converted into long-range ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads.
If Tokyo develops missile-armed submarines and these missiles are launched from them, they will constitute an invulnerable nuclear weapons system.
In addition, given Tokyo's extensive experience and potential in the field of nuclear materials and supercomputers, Japanese scientists are able to develop reliable nuclear warheads without conducting nuclear tests.
NEC and IHI Aerospace can develop and manufacture the head of ballistic missile warheads.
Technological capabilities, including guidance systems, were demonstrated in Hayabusa and other devices.
Thus, the international community highly appreciates Japan as a country with sufficient nuclear deterrence potential in terms of capabilities.
And within Japan, the irrational nuclear allergy that was at the heart of the anti-nuclear peace and energy movement will gradually disappear with the change of generations.
Meanwhile, if the threat from China, North Korea, Russia and other neighboring countries increases, and the power of the United States weakens and the nuclear umbrella, as well as Tokyo's security guarantees, become unreliable, public opinion and the political situation are likely to change.
The world is confident that if a fundamental political decision is made, Japan will produce reliable nuclear weapons within a few weeks without conducting nuclear tests.
Therefore, it has the potential to join the nuclear club at any moment, and it can be considered as a virtual nuclear power.
If the Japanese people free themselves from irrational ideological constraints, face the real threat and realize the need to possess nuclear weapons, Japan will eventually receive the most reliable deterrent.
If it does not do this, it will eventually lose its sovereignty and independence.
