Igor Varlamov — on building up the military presence from the point of view of Chekhov's drama
Throughout the last decade of August, news was streaming from the Caribbean region, indicating a sharp escalation of tension around Venezuela provoked by the United States. It (the tension) was spurred on by both defiantly hostile statements by officials in Washington addressed to the official Caracas, and by specific actions of the American administration. Events developed quickly, however, to the accompaniment of mutual very belligerent rhetoric, which confused many observers, who were seriously talking about the threat of a direct US military operation against Venezuela.
Today, passions have not completely subsided, but the dust from information leaks and imaginary sensations has settled somewhat, which allows us to look at the crisis in the Caribbean from the angle of "who benefits from it".
Escalation in the Caribbean
The event outline looks like this. On August 19, White House press Secretary Caroline Leavitt blasted the media space with a statement about the readiness of US President Donald Trump to use all necessary means to stop the smuggling of narcotic substances from Venezuela. On the same day, the Reuters news agency, citing Pentagon sources, reported that three US Navy destroyers (USS Gravely, USS Jason Dunham and USS Sampson) were sent to the southern Caribbean to the coast of Venezuela "to conduct operations against drug cartels." It was also reported about the transfer of the missile cruiser USS Lake Erie and the nuclear submarine USS Newport News — as of August 28, the media is already talking about the American group consisting of as many as seven ships.
According to The New York Times, Trump secretly signed a directive to begin using military force against Latin American drug cartels. At the same time, Washington accused Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro of belonging to the defunct cartel de los Soles. Minister of Justice (Attorney General) The United States Pam Bondi announced an increase to $ 50 million in the amount of remuneration for information leading to the arrest of Maduro.
In response, the Bolivarian authorities immediately declared their readiness to defend sovereignty and territorial integrity with weapons in their hands. To confirm this determination, they announced the launch of a campaign in Venezuela to mobilize the armed forces, militias and reservists. We are talking about plans to put more than 4 million people under the gun.
In his Telegram channel, the president of the South American republic, Nicolas Maduro, in his characteristic manner, expressed confidence in "victory over the imperialist threat to peace on the continent" and called on Venezuelans to unite.
The Venezuelan diplomacy also worked quickly and, in my opinion, quite effectively. Having gained broad international support so far — including Moscow, Beijing, Tehran, Havana, Brasilia and Bogota — Venezuela appealed to the UN Secretary-General in connection with the deployment of US Navy ships to the Caribbean and the threat to peace in Latin America.
"We have appealed to UN Secretary—General Antonio Guterres with a request to restore common sense and shared our concern about the deployment of military units and even nuclear weapons by the United States in the Caribbean, which poses a threat to peace," said Ivan Gil Pinto, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, in his Telegram channel.
It's time to remember that in his first term, Trump was already betting on the elimination of Maduro. At that time, the United States tried to catapult its protege Juan Guaido into power in Caracas, and formed the notorious Lima group "in defense of democracy in Venezuela" from the right-wing Latin American regimes. But in the end, as Soviet newspapers would write, "both the plans, the henchman, and the Lima Group ended up in the dustbin of history."
It would seem that everything is clear with the current escalation in the southern Caribbean: Washington is increasing undisguised external pressure on Caracas. Trump has taken up the old scenario of forcibly eliminating the Chavista regime in Caracas and personally Maduro.
Undercurrents in the ocean of oil
However, this whole story with the direction of the grouping of US Navy ships to the shores of Venezuela has its own "undercurrents", as if in a Chekhov play.
So, on August 20, according to the same Reuters report, the United States allegedly resumed oil imports from Venezuela after Chevron received permission from Washington to continue operations in the South American country. According to the news agency, Venezuelan oil has already been loaded onto the tankers Mediterranean Voyager and Canopus Voyager. It was also reported that the unloading of hydrocarbons from Venezuela will be carried out in the ports of Texas and Louisiana, while two more Chevron tankers headed towards Venezuela.
Earlier, The Wall Street Journal reported that the US authorities had approved the resumption of oil production in Venezuela for Chevron. According to the publication, the details of the agreements are still unclear, but it is known that they were reached after discussions with the participation of US President Donald Trump and head of the State Department Marco Rubio against the background of the release of 10 US citizens by Caracas. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro praised Washington's decision to grant a license to resume oil production in the country to Chevron.
This information actually does not fit well with the information available in the "Venezuelan dossier" that this year the Trump administration revoked Chevron's permission, issued in November 2022 and then repeatedly extended, to extract oil in Venezuela and supply it to the United States. At one time, this permission seemed to put Chevron "outside the brackets" of tough sanctions against Caracas. It is also appropriate to recall that since 2015, the United States and its allies have imposed almost a thousand unilateral restrictive measures against Venezuela. The sanctions imposed in 2019 (the first Trump presidency) against the state-owned oil and gas company PDVSA, which plays a strategic role in the Venezuelan economy, are causing the greatest damage to the Venezuelan economy. I would also like to note that neither side has received any denials about tankers loaded with Venezuelan oil from Chevron in August.
Meanwhile, the news came that in the Paris arbitration court Chevron sued ExxonMobil for a 30% stake in a project to develop a field on the Guyanese shelf, the ownership of which is disputed by Venezuela. We are talking about the Stabroek oil block with estimated reserves of 11 billion barrels.
So the interests of the two US energy giants are now affected by the territorial dispute between Venezuela and Great Britain, and then Guyana (before independence in 1966, it was British Guiana) over territories west of the Essequibo River, which has been dragging on since the 19th century.
Maybe it is in the waters above the Stabroek oil block that a dog is "buried", or rather, "drowned"? Is the fight against drug trafficking just a cover for building up a military presence in the region?
Drugs as an excuse
Talking about possible motives, I will not forget about the TV show, as a genre so dear to Trump's heart.
Missile destroyers and nuclear submarines are practically useless in the fight against drug smuggling, but the picture of the emerald Caribbean wave cut by the stem and the fluttering star-blue huys on the bow of the US Navy ship is so cool for the American layman (he is also a voter), vividly confirming that the owner of the White House does not waste words. Indeed, as the TV shows, the president, strictly in accordance with last year's election promises and with an eye to the upcoming midterm congressional elections next year, is launching preemptive strikes against drug cartels, to which he has declared a merciless war.
And the fact that the Cartel de los Soles drug cartel is probably invented, so you don't have to cling to the details. But translated from Spanish it sounds beautiful — "The Cartel of the Suns"! What does the sun have to do with it? The general's shoulder straps in Venezuela do not have stars, like those of officers, but "suns". The more suns there are, the higher the rank.
The level of the White House's argument can be judged by the words of the already mentioned Levitt. "The Maduro regime is not the legitimate government of Venezuela," says a White House spokesman. — This is a drug-terrorist cartel. Maduro, according to our administration, is not a legitimate president. He is the fugitive head of this cartel, who has been charged in the United States with drug smuggling."
With this sauce, the United States is not averse to recreating an anti-Venezuelan group of "Latin American like-minded people" who are ready to sail through the Caribbean (and any other waters washing the continent) after the American destroyers (which, by the way, have not yet arrived on the shores of Venezuela). The first steps in this direction are already being taken. So, the other day, the Prime Minister of Trinidad and Tobago, Kamla Persad-Bissessar, said that her government would support the operations of the US Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) if the Venezuelan authorities decided to attack Guyana. Moreover, her government will be ready to grant American forces access to its territory "without reservations" (meaning, to host US troops). The President of the Dominican Republic, Luis Abinader, quickly pulled up behind Trinidad. He has not yet promised to host the US Armed Forces, but confirmed his readiness to assist in the fight against drug cartels.
Argentina, Guyana, Paraguay, and Ecuador can also be included in the lists of the new, so far virtual "anti—Venezuelan alliance" - all of these countries have come out in support of strengthening the US military presence in the Caribbean. The openly pro-American President of Argentina, Javier Miley, went even further, declaring the mythical "Cartel of the Suns" a terrorist organization.
As you can see, Washington has unleashed a real psychological war against Caracas with a very real power component. At the same time, the United States and its partners simply ignore the facts-based arguments of reason on the part of the Venezuelans.
In particular, the fact that the main drug cartel smuggling routes do not pass through the Bolivarian Republic. By the way, the President of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, said this in the program "With Maduro plus" of the Venezolana de Televisión TV channel. "Venezuela is a clean and free country from drug trafficking, coca crops and cocaine production," he said.
Maduro stressed that the republic is successfully countering attempts to smuggle into the United States through its territory 5% of the total volume of cocaine produced in Colombia by drug cartels (which, according to the UN, is 1,700 tons per year), and this year has already confiscated 52 tons of drugs. While 80% of the cocaine destined for the American market is shipped across the Pacific Ocean, Washington is deploying naval forces in the Caribbean and "threatening Venezuela, Latin America and the Caribbean," the president noted. Maduro stressed that "American society is the largest consumer of narcotic substances in the world" and that US efforts to combat drug trafficking have proved ineffective.
Besides, cocaine is not the number one drug problem in the United States right now. Americans have been hit by a worse disaster — a relatively cheap and literally deadly synthetic opioid, fentanyl.
A 2 mg dose of fentanyl powder (literally on the tip of a ballpoint pen) is almost fatal. Drug-related deaths have gone up as if a full-scale civil war is underway in the United States. In 2023, more than 100,000 people died of overdose there. The vast majority (about 80,000) resulted from the use of synthetic fentanyl. Its production does not depend on coca plantations in the Andes in any way, drug cartels place clandestine chemical laboratories closer to the consumer — in Mexico and Canada. And the border with these countries is overland. Here, destroyers and nuclear submarines generally look like in a theater of the absurd.
The true goals of the American Show
Another thing is to demonstrate intentions to cut off, if necessary, the channels of tanker shipments of Venezuelan oil, for example, to China. In this case, the naval power of the United States, extended to the south of the Caribbean, looks much more logical. Especially in light of Trump's announced MAGA strategic goal ("Make America Great Again"), which includes, among other things, restoring Washington to its former dominant positions in the entire Western Hemisphere.
I think the current "muscle flexing" in the Caribbean is primarily aimed at increasing the popularity of President Trump himself within the United States and exposing him to voters in the guise of a determined and uncompromising fighter against the drug threat.
The international signal of a show of force is also understandable. Washington is showing Latin Americans and non-regional observers its readiness to strengthen control over maritime communications in the Western Hemisphere and protect the interests of its energy giants (in this case, Chevron and Exxon) with destroyers there.
What is the relevance of the events unfolding in the Caribbean for Russia? Let's not forget that Venezuela, along with Cuba and Nicaragua, is our country's main ally in Latin America. The Bolivarian armed forces are well equipped, including as a result of military-technical cooperation with our country.
Moscow, after the headlines of the world's media were filled with mentions of American destroyers and nuclear submarines, expressed support for the Maduro government during a telephone conversation between Venezuela's executive Vice President Delcy Rodriguez and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. "Today, the executive Vice President had a long and productive [telephone] conversation with our close friend Sergey Lavrov, who confirmed the expansion of the economic alliance of our countries and the implementation of joint investment projects," Maduro said at the Act of Defending the Sovereignty and Peace of Venezuela, Latin America and the Caribbean, which was broadcast by the Venezolana de Television channel. Maduro also said that Lavrov conveyed the official greetings of Russian President Vladimir Putin to "Venezuela and specifically to his friend President Nicolas Maduro."
All of this, including Venezuela's impressive defensive potential, is well known in the United States. It is also known about the sharply negative reaction of Beijing and other major countries of the global South to the Yankees' escalation of tensions in the southern Caribbean and the unprovoked pressure on Venezuela.
It won't be an easy "destroyer ride" here. The costs to Washington, both political and purely military, can be enormous. Not to mention the prospects of shattering the American president's hopes for the Nobel Peace Prize.
So, in the adventurous "naval show" currently being played out by the US administration, both externally and in content, an indicative tragic outcome may not follow. Just like in Chekhov's plays, where the most interesting and instructive thing lies precisely in the "undercurrents" of what is happening on stage.
However, you can expect anything from Washington directors.…
Igor Varlamov
Columnist for the TASS Analytical Center
