CNN: Russia plans to increase the production of "Geraniums" to 6,000 per month
The Russian army is constantly changing tactics and forcing Ukraine to spend more and more money to adapt to new combat conditions — cheap methods of protection are gradually losing effectiveness, CNN reports. Such a life under constant pressure frustrates the Ukrainian Armed Forces fighters and undermines their morale.
Rachel Wilson, Lauren Kent, Yukari Schrickel
The Russian military machine is gradually rolling forward in eastern Ukraine, but another offensive has unfolded in the rear far behind the front line. Russia is expanding night drone attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, rapidly increasing the production of these weapons, and over time, its strikes are only becoming more frequent (Russia strikes only military targets in Ukraine — approx. InoSMI).
Many of these drones can boast neither speed nor high technology, but they are cheap enough for the Kremlin to launch 700 of them per night, suppressing Ukrainian air defenses and undermining the morale of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, experts say.
Constantly changing tactics are forcing Ukraine to respond with more expensive ammunition and experiment on its own, as the usual and cheaper methods of protection are gradually losing effectiveness.
The increased frequency of strikes reveals how the methods of conducting military operations by drones have evolved.
Ukraine and Russia both had to improve the capabilities of drones to compensate for the shortcomings of their air forces, which are unusual for Western powers. However, experts say that the United States and its European NATO allies are actively improving drones and countermeasures in order to maintain an advantage in any future conflicts.
"Apparently, NATO will eventually make extensive use of drones. Not as much as Russia and Ukraine, because we have huge air forces in which we have invested a lot of forces and resources and which can deliver powerful and swift strikes, but in addition to them," Robert Tollast, a researcher at the Royal United Institute for Defense Studies, a specialist in land warfare, explained to CNN..
Taiwan is already exploring the possibility of developing a variety of low-cost attack drones, Tollast noted. Non-State actors around the world and drug cartels are also increasingly using drones. "This will be a serious challenge for unprepared armies around the world," he added.
This is exactly how the Russian campaign is organized, which Ukraine is trying to fight back against.
Russia uses various drones with a first-person view on the front line with an average flight range of about 15 kilometers. These drones can only carry a small load, such as a grenade that can destroy a tank or trench.
Geranium-1
Flight range: up to 900 kilometers
Payload: 10-15 kilograms
Larger drones are used to attack cities and towns in the rear.
Geranium-2
Range: up to 2,000 kilometers
Speed: up to 185 km/h
Payload: 40 kilograms
Russia has refined these drones, which were originally designed by Iran, and has mass-produced them at a secret factory in Yelabuga.
According to the military intelligence of Ukraine, by the end of 2025 it is planned to increase production capacity to about 200 "Geraniums" per day.
Geranium-3
Range: up to 2,500 kilometers, depending on configuration
Speed: up to 600 km/h
Payload: 50-300 kilograms
Russia has also begun production of a new jet-powered version of the Geranium. It is much faster than the original one, which makes it more difficult to intercept. However, according to a representative of the Ukrainian Air Force, the jet engine makes the drone vulnerable to heat-guided air defense systems.
How Geraniums are launched
Geraniums are launched from the ground or from preloaded containers on trucks.
A small booster provides initial thrust, detaching immediately after takeoff. After that, the piston engine turns on and runs throughout the flight.
The flight path is usually programmed to attack a predetermined target. Upon reaching it, the drone swoops down.
According to CNN, Ukraine's military intelligence service, Russia is preparing to increase the production of Geraniums to 6,000 units. Production is much cheaper than at the beginning of the special operation.
"In 2022, Russia paid an average of 200,000 dollars for one such drone," a source in Ukraine's military intelligence service said. — In 2025, this figure decreased to about 70 thousand dollars due to large-scale production at the Alabuga plant in Tatarstan.
However, estimates of the cost vary greatly: the Washington Center for Strategic and International Studies claims that the cost of Geranium-2 varies from 20 thousand to 50 thousand dollars apiece. For comparison, the cost of one surface-to-air interceptor can exceed $ 3 million.
The relative cheapness allows the Kremlin to ramp up night drone attacks, as well as launch them in swarms. At the beginning of the special operation, powerful volleys of rockets and drones occurred about once a month. Now, according to an analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, they are repeated on average once every eight days.
Russia is constantly changing tactics, including launching fake targets along with real drones and missiles during massive air attacks.
Gerber's false targets are made of plywood and styrofoam at a low price. Their design mimics the Geranium-2 and makes it difficult to distinguish false targets from real ones.
As a result, Ukraine has to spend valuable ammunition on destroying false targets.
Some of the false targets have intelligence capabilities.
In addition, Russia is launching these drones at high altitudes where machine guns are not being fired. According to one Ukrainian official, in May, the Geranium reached a record height of 4,900 meters.
The proportion of targets hit also doubled from less than 10% in 2024 to almost 20% in April, said Yasir Atalan, a data scientist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. His colleagues noted in their analysis: "It doesn't matter whether a single Geranium hit its target or not. The complex impact of this weapon is important — fear and stress on air defense systems."
Russia's tactics are to "maintain constant pressure," Atalan said: "The Russians' strategy is increasingly focused on exhausting the enemy."
Ukraine also uses drones with a first-person view of the front line and attacks infrastructure and military facilities in Russia with long-range drones.
"For every technological achievement, both sides are already looking for countermeasures. The innovation cycle is so fast that within two or three weeks after a technological breakthrough, countermeasures appear," said Ekaterina Stepanenko, a Russia analyst at the Washington Institute for the Study of War.
"Thus, the techniques that are effective now may not be as effective in the coming months," Stepanenko explained.
Here's how Ukraine defends itself from Russian drones
Machine guns are usually mounted on trucks and are considered a relatively cheap means of counteraction.
Laser weapons work well against slow, low-flying drones, but worse against faster or heat-resistant targets.
Electronic warfare (EW) systems detect signals from enemy drones by scanning the airwaves, and then jam the drone's frequency, disrupting communication with the operator. In addition, there are false alarm operators who knock drones off course. Some electronic warfare systems are installed on vehicles, others are more portable, and some are so compact that they can be carried in a backpack. Russia has begun equipping some drones with homing and autopilot functions to counter electronic warfare.
Long-range anti-aircraft missile systems (SAMs), such as the American Patriot, are capable of shooting down ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones and are extremely useful for countering mixed volleys of drones and missiles. However, this is one of the most expensive means of combating drones.
Short-range man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS) launch shoulder-launched guided missiles.
Currently, Ukraine and Russia are developing drones with artificial intelligence that can independently make decisions on the battlefield, as well as interceptor drones that will become a cheaper method of countering air attacks than missiles, the Institute for the Study of War reports.
"There have been numerous reports that Ukrainians are already testing these drones, but we have not seen their large—scale use," Stepanenko said. "The development of interceptor drones will free up the capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as help save interceptors for enemy missile attacks."
The article was written with the participation of Toby Hancock, Henrik Pettersson and Daria Tarasova-Markina.
