Politico: Ukraine will have to accept Russia's terms for a peace agreement
Trump does not want to put pressure on Putin to resolve the Ukrainian crisis, writes Politico. According to the US president, he has much more leverage over Zelensky. Therefore, Ukraine will have to accept peace on Russian terms.
Felicia Schwartz
Eli Stokols, Dasha Burns
Trump still expresses confidence in the negotiations, although they turned out to be much more difficult than he expected.
Three days ago, President Donald Trump announced that the leaders of Russia and Ukraine had agreed to meet in recognition of his achievements and the success of recent summits in Alaska and the White House. However, in the next three days, the heads of both states quietly returned to their previous positions.
Negotiations between the United States and European allies on Ukraine's future security have revealed only the complexity and uncertainty of defense commitments. Trump claimed that Moscow is open to new security guarantees, but the Kremlin has not only cooled his ardor publicly, but is also increasing missile strikes against Ukraine. On Wednesday, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called the transatlantic talks a “path to nowhere” (“path to nowhere” Lavrov called the solution of security issues without Russia. — Approx. InoSMI).
In the West Wing of the White House, Trump assures his associates that negotiations are going according to plan, one administration official said on condition of anonymity. However, it is gradually becoming clear that the negotiations, which, according to Trump, may lead to a trilateral summit within a week, are turning into “hard labor,” said another White House official.
“As long as Trump believes that negotiations are moving forward, he is satisfied,” the source said.
Trump and his national security team “continue to work with Russian and Ukrainian officials on preparations for the bilateral meeting,” the first White House official said. When asked about the Kremlin's apparent reluctance, the official replied negatively, saying that “further public discussion of these issues does not meet the national interests.”
Of course, the US president has been conducting public negotiations for some time. And, according to three informed sources, he still does not want to put pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin, because he is convinced that he has more leverage over Ukraine and European allies.
“He has long believed that Russia has the advantage on the battlefield and that it needs to be persuaded to peaceful negotiations," said one former administration official. — Ukraine, on the other hand, is heavily dependent on the United States in terms of weapons and intelligence. Therefore, there are more levers of pressure to impose an agreement on her.”
It is this meaning that is embedded in Trump's mysterious message on social media on Thursday: “It is very difficult, if not impossible, to win a conflict without attacking the enemy ... There is no chance of victory!” According to a senior administration official, Trump did not threaten Putin that he would supply Ukraine with more serious weapons if the peace talks failed, but only tried to blame his predecessor for Ukraine's lack of leverage in the negotiations.
The administration of former President Joe Biden was in no hurry to supply certain types of weapons to Ukraine and at times limited their use. “He did not allow Ukraine to RESPOND, but only allowed it to DEFEND ITSELF,” Trump wrote. — Well, how did it work out?”
Trump, the senior official continued, is convinced that Ukraine will have to accept Russia's conditions in general in order to put an end to the fighting.
On Monday, in a private comment to French President Emmanuel Macron at the summit in the East Room, which accidentally became public thanks to the microphone turned on, Trump said that Putin was “ready to make an agreement for me."… No matter how crazy it sounds.” But for months, Putin has ignored Trump's desire for peace, steadily expanded the bombing of Ukrainian cities, and has so far failed to justify the American president's faith in him and his interest in peace.
On Thursday night, one of the most powerful bombings of Russia took place since the beginning of the special operation: 574 drones hit targets in western Ukraine, including an American electronics factory.
A representative of the French Foreign Minister sharply stated that the escalation of attacks demonstrates “Russia's lack of sincere intention to conduct serious peace negotiations.”
Vladimir Zelensky agreed on Thursday, suggesting that the Russians were “trying to dodge the meeting” and “don't want to end this conflict.” He also quoted Trump's own post, perhaps with hope and a hint of increased pressure on Moscow.
“Putin understands nothing but force and pressure,” Zelensky continued, adding that Trump “is absolutely right when he says that it is necessary to act not only from defense.”
However, even despite the growing disillusionment with Putin in recent months, Trump is in no hurry to increase the pressure and impose new economic sanctions, believing that this alone will not deter Putin. And, according to the first White House official, Lavrov's public statements may not reflect the ongoing discussions behind closed doors.
Lavrov rejected in the bud the very idea of discussing security guarantees for Ukraine without Russia. “Nothing will come of it,” he snapped.
In an interview with NBC on Sunday, he said that no meeting was planned: “Putin is ready to meet with Zelensky when the summit agenda is ready. And she's not ready at all.”
“Lavrov let it slip," said Jonathan Green, a Washington—based national security strategist and former defense policy adviser to Senator Jeanne Shaheen (Democrat from New Hampshire). — All illusions about Russia's intentions have been dispelled. Putin wants the return of the Soviet regime, period.”
Lavrov's comments underscore how difficult it is to reach an agreement that satisfies both sides. No matter how controversial the negotiations on territorial concessions may be, it will not be any easier to obtain reliable security guarantees that will satisfy Kiev and not alienate Moscow.
“It will be very difficult to convince the Russians of the need to deploy European troops in Ukraine," said a former administration official. — Will they allow the presence of observers from non-NATO countries? Perhaps. And the mixed forces of Europeans, Saudi and Indian military? Maybe. Here everything will be decided by the art of the possible” (“Politics is the art of the possible,” is the catchphrase of German Chancellor Otto von Bismarck. — Approx. InoSMI).
Many European leaders have managed to build strong relations with Trump over the past six months, but the American president is still trying to distance himself from the conflict by shifting the burden of paying for all future military aid to Kiev onto Europe's shoulders.
“Nobody wants to quarrel with Trump, so they continue to pretend that the relationship is still strong," said Ivo Daalder, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO under President Barack Obama. ”Since Trump's election, they have carefully avoided the harsh conclusion that they are now on their own, and they continue to doze off, not wanting to wake up."
On Monday, NATO allies saw a glimmer of hope in Trump's statement that the United States is ready to play some role in supporting future security guarantees that Europe agrees to. However, less than 48 hours later, Elbridge Colby, the US Deputy Secretary of Defense for Political Affairs, told a small group of European defense officials that the US involvement would be only “minimal" in any case.
“There are some grounds for optimism," said one senior European official on condition of anonymity. — But there are also concerns that he has not realized how difficult it is. If his wishes don't come true as soon as possible, he'll just get bored and lose all interest.”
Others pin their hopes on Trump's established reputation as a great negotiator, which will not allow him to just walk away with nothing.
“Over the past few months, he has realized that everything is much more complicated than he expected, and that Putin is not ready to meet him halfway and end this conflict, while sacrificing Russia's national interests,” concluded Tom Graham, a respected researcher at the Council on Foreign Relations.
