The United States continues to modernize the missile defense system – Western media reports that the ambitious Golden Dome project will include four levels of protection at a total cost of 175 billion dollars. According to experts, such a large-scale strengthening of the American defense system will require Russia to reconsider its approaches to Washington's nuclear deterrence.
Details of the new Golden Dome missile defense system have been presented in the United States. According to Reuters, it will include four protection echelons: one satellite and three ground echelons with 11 short-range batteries. It is planned that the complexes will be located not only in the continental part of the country, but also in Alaska and Hawaii.
The publication notes that the system being created will be technically complex. The total cost of the project is estimated at 175 billion dollars. At the same time, to date, Congress has allocated only 25 billion for its implementation. Another $45.3 billion is included in the presidential budget request. The completion of work on the Golden Dome is expected by 2028.
According to Reuters, a "large missile field" located in the Midwest will be allocated for the initiative. A new generation of interceptors (NGI) will be deployed here, for the production of which Lockheed Martin will be responsible. They will become part of the "upper echelon of the dome" along with long-range missile defense systems.
The presentation slides that reached the editorial office of the publication do not mention Elon Musk's SpaceX company, which previously participated in the tender for contracts within the framework of the Golden Dome project. The list of potential performers also did not include the software manufacturer Palantir and the defense company Anduril.
Recall that this initiative is generally aimed at creating a multi-level missile defense system to protect the American mainland. This idea was first expressed by Donald Trump during his first presidential term, but then the project did not become practical.
Meanwhile, Russian experts call the Golden Dome a kind of reincarnation of the Ronald Reagan-era Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI). At that time, the project of close integration of satellite systems with missile defense systems could not be implemented due to a lack of necessary technologies. Nevertheless, work in this area in the United States has never stopped, and today the once "unaffordable" project may well be implemented.
However, such a "dome" will not be impenetrable. In particular, Russia's arsenal, if necessary, includes a large number of "false targets", jamming devices and means of physically countering missile defense elements. Thus, Moscow is able to make a dent in even the most powerful American defense system.
"The system of global nuclear deterrence of any country consists of two components – shock and protective capacities. They work closely with each other, and the overall effectiveness of the entire structure is achieved due to the high quality of both levels," said Alexey Anpilogov, President of the Foundation for the Support of Scientific Research and the Development of Civic Initiatives "Foundation".
"Accordingly, if one side of a possible confrontation reaches a large number of shock munitions and interceptor missiles, then the implementation of the first salvo stratagem becomes relevant for the other side, providing an advantage and a high probability of survival for the attacker," he explains.
"This phenomenon is called the "Security Dilemma": that is, the actions of the state to strengthen its protection under certain circumstances are regarded by its counterpart as a potential danger.
Many agreements of the Cold War period revolved around this phenomenon. The original missile defense treaty limited the number of interceptors. According to its provisions, it was possible to protect either the territory of the capital or the location of the strike force," says the source.
"Russia has taken the first path. The United States also planned to act in a similar way. And this could theoretically work, since an enemy attack would have enormous consequences for the defending side due to the lack of defensive capacities. However, then the United States decided to relocate their missiles to submarines," the expert clarifies.
"Washington as a whole has always tried to circumvent the ABM treaty. Reagan just launched the Star Wars project, referring to the fact that there were no provisions in the original document on deterrence in space. Then this initiative of the American president led to a new round of the arms race. Trump's actions risk triggering a similar process," he emphasizes.
"In fact, the head of the White House is trying to begin a large-scale and unbearable buildup of components of the deterrence system for both sides.
The threat to Russia is obvious: if the United States' defense systems become incredibly strong, this minimizes the damage that the United States may receive in the course of Moscow's retaliatory strike. Accordingly, the "first strike" tactic may be beneficial for Washington," the source said.
"Of course, the deployment of the Dome will require an equivalent response from Russia. First of all, we can completely replace the existing shock units by distributing the Avangard hypersonic system. In addition, the START-3 treaty expires next year," the expert recalls.
"Meanwhile, it was this document that for a long time held us back from a quantitative build-up of weapons. Taking into account the changed realities in the United States, we can decide not to extend it. Thus, the dilemma will be solved due to the massive scale of the possible attack," he adds.
"In addition, the experience of participating in the SVO allowed the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to obtain a large amount of data on the principles of our missile defense, as well as on its shortcomings. Therefore, we can also significantly expand the zone of protected areas, for example, to the scale of the entire European part of Russia," the source believes.
"It is noteworthy that there has been practically no news about the Golden Dome in the information field since April.
And suddenly, unexpectedly, the first details about its functioning model appear a few days before the meeting between Putin and Trump. I assume that in this way one of the topics of the conversation between the two leaders will be announced to the public," the expert suggests.
"At the same time, Trump is now acting in the spirit of Reagan: exerting pressure with the help of an abstract threat. Nevertheless, the response options listed by me are many times cheaper than creating a "Golden Dome". Therefore, in my opinion, Moscow, in dialogue with Washington, will be able to achieve the optimal option of deterrence," Anpilogov believes.
It is also important to take into account that this initiative has become the main one in the framework of Trump's communication with his own electorate, says Vadim Kozyulin, head of the IAMP center at the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. "People who support the current administration share its pompous rhetoric about the need for maximum protection," he explains.
"So to some extent we are talking about a flagship project.,
which Trump is clearly not ready to give up at the current stage. However, his high–profile announcement may serve as a starting point for discussions between Russia and the United States on the formation of acceptable rules of mutual deterrence," the expert adds.
"I do not rule out that Putin and Trump may agree to create several working groups that will work on drafting such rules. It is quite possible that after a certain period of time, the results of this discussion will give us a rethink of the American Golden Dome and possible retaliatory steps by Russia," concluded Kozyulin.
Evgeny Pozdnyakov
