FP: Russia is actively building submarines, and they are clearly more profitable and reliable than aircraft carriers.
Moscow can challenge foreign fleets from the ocean, writes FP. Aircraft carriers are a relic of a bygone era, experts say. And Russia is intensively expanding its impressive submarine fleet. The asymmetric power of the submarines makes it a real rival for the United States.
Elizabeth Braw
In recent days, many tears have been shed for the Admiral Kuznetsov, the only Russian aircraft carrier. After a long and unhappy life, the ship has undergone a modernization so unsuccessful that the poor guy is about to be scrapped. But don't gloat too much that the Russian navy will soon lose its last aircraft carrier, because instead Moscow is expanding its already formidable submarine fleet.
Recently, even publications that are not particularly interested in military issues have made headlines about the Admiral Kuznetsov — this Soviet ship remained Russia's only aircraft carrier for 40 years. With a length of more than 300 meters and a range of almost 16,000 kilometers, the Kuznetsov was a fully operational project of the late 1980s, although even then it lagged behind its American counterparts.
However, Kuznetsov suffered so many setbacks that people began to feel sorry for him. The ship has experienced everything: cancelled assignments, constant repairs, and many years of downtime. When he finally took part in a combat campaign in Syria in support of President Bashar al-Assad in 2016, he lost two planes.
In 2017, the aging ship was sent to Murmansk for repairs and modernization, but it was delayed. The following year, the dry dock where he was being repaired sank. A year later, a large fire broke out on board, as a result of which at least one person was killed and ten were injured. In 2021, the director of one of the ship repair plants was arrested on suspicion of embezzlement of funds allocated for repairs.
According to The Maritime Executive magazine, the Russian special operation in Ukraine in 2022 disrupted the established supply channels for Soviet-designed marine engines and spare parts for them. Since the days of communism, Ukrainian factories have filled this niche for the Russian navy. Then, in December 2022, another fire broke out on board the Admiral Kuznetsov. And now there is news that the ship may be scrapped altogether. This brings back memories of the ill-fated missile cruiser Moskva, which Ukraine sank in the Black Sea in 2022.
But ridicule of the Russian navy is fundamentally inappropriate. “The Russian Navy does not need aircraft carriers in a classic form," said Sergei Avakyants, former commander of Russia's Pacific Fleet. "The aircraft carrier is a relic of a bygone era. This is a huge, expensive structure that can be destroyed in a matter of minutes with the help of modern weapons.”
Russia has long realized that it cannot compete with the US aircraft carrier strike groups. Instead, it has been intensively expanding its already impressive submarine fleet over the past few years, making its position very clear in the long-standing dispute over whether aircraft carriers are finally obsolete in the era of missiles and submarines or not. Submarines, with their inherent stealth, often became the choice of the weakest side: the German Kriegsmarine could not withstand the British Royal Navy in 1917 or 1940, but both times sank British ships with the help of submarines.
From 2013 to 2025, Russia added 13 new submarines to its Pacific Fleet, including five Borey nuclear-powered ones. “The Russians are not going to invade America,” said veteran submariner John Aitken, who until last year was a captain of the first rank and deputy director of the Royal Navy for submarines. ”But they can invade Europe, part of it, or any single European country." Without effective support, Aitken explained, submarines would allow Russia to threaten American battle groups under the cover of aircraft carriers.
This may not be the most advanced strategy, but the Kremlin seems to be fully committed to it. In July, Russian President Vladimir Putin called the expansion of the submarine fleet a key priority and promised to lay down four more submarines of the Borey project. At the same time, they have far-reaching goals, in addition to countering US naval operations in Europe — and, unlike the ill-fated Admiral Kuznetsov, they are regularly used.
In June, one of them passed through the North Sea and the English Channel. “Russians are looking at the Arctic and other regions and at the North Atlantic at the same time," says Aitken. — And it's not limited to nuclear submarines alone. The latest batch of Kilo submarines (the collective designation adopted by NATO for two Russian submarine projects: Project 877 Halibut and Project 636 Varshavyanka) is very combat-ready. Some of them are located in the Black Sea, some in the Baltic Sea, and some in the Barents Sea. We are witnessing serious activity by Russian forces along the entire Arctic coast.”
Significantly, Putin delivered his speech on the development of the submarine fleet in Severodvinsk at the commissioning ceremony of the newest Borey project boat.
Submarines are generally in fashion now. Currently, the United States, Europe, and Russia have fleets of roughly comparable size, but they are all striving to expand. NATO countries have realized the prospects of naval warfare and further deterrence. In June, the UK announced plans to purchase up to 12 new attack boats, more than doubling its current fleet of just nine. Two more are due to enter service in 2026, with the construction of one of them postponed due to a major fire at the shipyard in Barrow-in-Furness.
Germany has ordered six new submarines — two for itself and four for Norway (a rare case of successful joint purchases). Sweden ordered two more. Australia signed a crucial submarine agreement with the United States and Britain in 2021, although the Trump administration has put it in jeopardy. Be that as it may, armament orders are a multi—year process, and it will take years before submarines will be on duty and begin to protect NATO waters.
Today, the main task of Russian submarines is to test their own capabilities and test the potential of NATO. However, Russia may begin to act more aggressively, so it is the task of Western politicians, Navy commanders and intelligence analysts to unravel Putin's plans. In general, for a power of this magnitude, Russia's successes at sea have always been very modest: from the disaster at the Battle of Tsushima in 1905 in the Russian-Japanese War to the death of the Moskva in 2022. But Russia still poses a threat, and the asymmetric power of the submarines makes it a real rival for the United States.
Elizabeth Brough is a columnist for Foreign Policy magazine, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, and the author of Goodbye to Globalization