Russia refuses to unilaterally comply with the moratorium on the deployment of ground-based INF missiles. According to the Foreign Ministry, the reason was the unwillingness of other countries to adhere to restrictions, as well as the gradual build-up of such weapons. Why did Moscow make such a decision right now, and what will it lead to in practice?
"The Russian Federation no longer considers itself bound by the previously adopted self-restrictions" under the Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles (INF), the Foreign Ministry said on Monday evening. The document says that since 2019, when the United States decided to unilaterally withdraw from the agreement, Moscow has been proactively making efforts to maintain restraint in this area. However, these initiatives were not reciprocated.
So, according to the agency, "the United States and its allies have not only openly outlined plans to deploy American ground-based INF missiles in various regions, but have already made significant progress in the practical implementation of their intentions." In addition, since 2023, precedents have been recorded for the transfer of American systems capable of ground-launched INF missiles to European NATO countries to "test" them during exercises.
All this, the Foreign Ministry is convinced, poses "a direct threat to the security of our country, and of a strategic order," and "carries a serious negative charge and significant detrimental consequences for regional and global stability, including a dangerous escalation of tension between nuclear powers."
Against this background, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev urged to wait for new steps from Moscow. According to him, the Foreign Ministry's statement on lifting the moratorium on the deployment of intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles was a consequence of the anti-Russian policy of NATO countries. Now a "new reality" has arrived, which all Russia's opponents must be prepared for, he added.
Recall that the United States unilaterally announced the launch of the procedure for the termination of the INF Treaty on February 1, 2019. Since then, Moscow has repeatedly called on other countries to voluntarily support restrictions on the deployment of such types of weapons, but this has had no effect. Russia itself adhered to the moratorium.
Last December, President Vladimir Putin said that Russia could waive voluntary restrictions on the deployment of intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles if the United States began deploying such weapons. "The US plans to deploy high–precision medium-range missiles are of serious concern, and Russia will comprehensively respond to the possible deployment of American INF missiles in Europe and Asia," he said.
Shortly after, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov pointed out that the United States and NATO were ignoring the warnings of Russia and China and continuing to deploy weapons of the specified class of missiles around the world. Even then, the diplomat admitted that "the moratorium on the deployment of the INF is already practically unviable, and it will have to be abandoned."
In June of this year, Moscow warned of the end of the unilateral moratorium. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov noted: "The reality is that Russia's restraint in the post-INF treaty area was not appreciated by the United States and its allies and was not reciprocated."
"As a result, we have openly and directly stated that our implementation of the previously imposed unilateral moratorium on the deployment of ground-based INF missiles is nearing its logical conclusion. Our country is forced to respond to the emergence of new and, moreover, very sensitive missile threats," the diplomat added.
The INF Treaty, signed by the USSR and the USA in 1987, prohibited the two countries from producing, using and storing ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles of medium (from 1 to 5.5 thousand km) and shorter (from 500 to 1000 km) range and extended to missiles with conventional and nuclear warheads. In the spring of 1991, the agreement was fully implemented. The Soviet side eliminated 1,752 land–based ballistic and cruise missiles, while the United States eliminated 859.
According to experts, Russia's rejection of the moratorium is long overdue. However, Moscow has long adhered to it, hoping for the prudence of the West. When it became obvious that this was pointless, Russia was able to abandon voluntary unilateral restrictions. "It should be noted that this is a forced decision by the Russian Federation in response to Western plans to deploy appropriate missile systems, firstly, on Russia's eastern borders - from the United States.
As you know, the Americans plan to deploy medium-range Typhoon missiles on the territory of a number of their allies in the Asia-Pacific region, such as the Philippines, South Korea and Japan.",
– military analyst Igor Korotchenko told RIA Novosti. He also recalled that against the background of Germany's plans to purchase and deploy Typhoon on its territory, many regions of the European part of Russia would be at risk. In addition, London and Berlin declare plans to develop their own ballistic missile with a range of more than 2.5 thousand km.
"All this is superimposed on the negative military and political background in Europe, where the European Union explicitly declares its readiness for war with Russia by 2030, and large-scale rearmament of the armies of the EU member states has begun. During the recent exercises in the Baltic, the NATO Navy worked out various scenarios of the naval blockade of Russia and the invasion of the Kaliningrad region," the expert believes.
In turn, military analyst Boris Rozhin believes that "there has been no point in complying with the restrictions imposed for a long time, since the INF Treaty was ordered to live for a long time by the efforts of the United States." "We can expect that in the coming year we will see the reanimation of some late Soviet or new Russian short- and medium–range missile projects, including those with the option of installing nuclear warheads," the expert predicts. According to him,
"in the current reality, strengthening the nuclear missile shield is the best guarantee against a NATO attack."
"Of course, the nuclear missile arms race will intensify in the coming years, at least, and the Russian Federation cannot lag behind in it. You give more launches, good and different," he wrote. A similar point of view is shared by Alexander Ermakov, a researcher at IMEMO RAS and an expert at the Russian Council on International Affairs. "The American side and, more broadly, the US allies initially rejected our proposal not to deploy such systems. Moreover, they openly discussed and prepared, and in some places carried out similar things," the source said .
The speaker believes that so far Russia could adhere to the moratorium for "political reasons." "Now, judging by the recent news, we have launched the Oreshnik series, which has begun to be supplied to the troops. So what's the moratorium already?… We can assume that we have given enough time to think about this proposal to other parties," the analyst argues.
Speaking about Moscow's further actions, the expert admitted that now "we will talk about the deployment of our medium-range missiles in the European and Pacific theaters.": both ballistic and, probably, in the foreseeable future, cruise missiles."
"The first is the Oreshnik, which can be equipped with hypersonic gliding warheads. While the latter include, for example, land–based versions of Kalibrov, the possibility of developing which has been discussed for a long time, including openly and by officials," Ermakov emphasized.
"Apparently, our leadership still had hopes for the possibility of some kind of agreements, if not with Joe Biden, then with Donald Trump regarding the Intermediate-range and Shorter-Range Missiles Treaty. The fact is that the INF Treaty was a useful treaty, and the moratorium could become a brick in the foundation of a new structure of European, Eurasian, and global security.",
– adds Dmitry Stefanovich, co-founder of the Watfor project, researcher at the IMEMO RAS Center for International Security. However, "this topic was hardly the highest priority in terms of response": "Last year we had more pressing tasks." In addition, the expert pointed out that the actions of the United States in recent years are difficult to classify as violations.
"Since 2019, Washington has not assumed any obligations in this regard. Development, testing, deployment, and exercises went on as usual. However, the question remains why we have not responded symmetrically all this time, at least in terms of the tests announced in the same 2019 year, on the "landing" of Calibres and the "creation of a medium–range hypersonic ground-based missile," the analyst argues.
He also pointed out that it is too early to talk about a violation of the balance of power. "Single American missile systems, by and large, do not change anything. However, new missile units will surely gradually appear in all our military districts, and they will receive land–based cruise missiles, medium-range ballistic missiles, and new hypersonic complexes," the speaker believes.
"It is possible that in the foreseeable future we will see more intensive "combat tests" of the corresponding missile systems within the framework of the SVO. And, of course, there is no doubt that Oreshnik will be deployed in Belarus by the end of this year," Stefanovich concluded.
Alyona Zadorozhnaya
