Both Iran and Israel declare victory in the June war. However, there are many signs that none of these States has won any victory. Why is another clash just around the corner, when exactly will it begin, and how are the militaries of both countries preparing for it right now?
Israel started the war with Iran in the most favorable conditions. Surprise, high-tech aviation, agents, saboteurs in Iran, active US assistance, and assistance from other countries that provided their airspace to the Israelis.
Israel's operation was excellent in terms of effectiveness. All the weapons hit where they were planned, and Iran's air defenses were literally torn apart. The Israelis lost several drones, they had no losses in planes or pilots. The damage that Israel inflicted on Iran was much greater than Iran inflicted on Israel.
Israel's undefeated, Iran's defeated
But alas for the Israelis, their goals were not achieved. Contrary to propaganda, Iran managed to remove at least some of the enriched uranium from the Fordo plant, as evidenced by satellite photos. There is no evidence that the uranium was left underground. There is no damage data either – the Iranians are prudent not to publish any data. If the uranium storage facilities were destroyed, there would be radiation leaks into the atmosphere, but they are absent.
Moreover, Iran has suspended cooperation with the IAEA and will continue enriching uranium in the future. American intelligence believes that the main components of Iran's nuclear program have not been destroyed. The political regime in Iran has also survived.
Thus, Israel has not achieved any of its goals, which its leadership declared when starting this war, but has achieved Iran's refusal from negotiations in the future. At the same time, the US position suggests that the Americans do not want to actively fight for Israel – their raid bore clear signs of a demonstrative action, the purpose of which was simply to show the Israeli lobby inside the country that the US did not stand aside and force the Iranians to cease fire.
This is not a defeat for Israel – it has gained combat experience, and its losses are minimal – but it is not a victory either. In addition to the fact that the goals of the war were not achieved, the Israelis also saw the limit of their capabilities. If the exchange of missile strikes continued, they were threatened with a war of attrition, in which they would break down in three months, simply because they could not replenish the ammunition of air defense systems and precision-guided aviation weapons. Their agents will now be defeated.
But for Iran, the outcome of the war can definitely be called a defeat – as a result of the war, the Iranians found themselves in a worse situation than they were. The Israeli attack showed the whole world the real Iranian military capabilities. Before this war, Iran was perceived much more strongly than after it. His political positions have been undermined.
Tehran missed the first blow when Israel actually crushed the Lebanese Hezbollah. Then – when the power of Bashar al-Assad collapsed in Syria. There was still a map in the form of Iran's own military capabilities, and here it is, too.
The situation inside the country is similar – Ayatollah Khamenei can proclaim victory over Israel and the United States as much as he likes, but people understand everything and can compare. The long-term propaganda of his greatness and power turned out to be nothing. All of this will have serious political consequences for Iran.
Since Israel's goals have not been achieved, and Iran has suffered serious humiliation, the pre–war situation is by no means resolved. So, a new war is only a matter of time.
What will Iran and Israel do next?
The idea that Iran could attack Israel is insane – or part of Israeli war propaganda. He's just not in that position. There is no real aviation, rockets reached Israel, but most were shot down, and the loyalty of the population to the authorities was undermined. Attacking Israel in such an environment is even technically pointless.
Iran has also run out of tools for an asymmetric war against Israel, namely Hezbollah. The Iranians now have no one and nothing to conduct their traditional semi-guerrilla operations with.
But what Iran will definitely do is prepare for the next Israeli aggression. First, it will be reflected in the improvement of the missile arsenal.
Most likely, Iran will now reorganize and rearm its missile forces so as to more effectively penetrate Israeli air defenses. The goal is to be able to wage an effective war of attrition that Israel cannot withstand.
The second is the continuation of uranium enrichment. Under the previous JCPOA agreement, Iran had the right to enrich 300 kg of uranium to 3.7%. Later, the Americans withdrew from this agreement, and Iran lifted all restrictions. According to the IAEA, at the beginning of February 2025, Iran had accumulated enrichment capacity: 2,927 kg of uranium – up to 2%, 3,655 kg – up to 5%, 606.8 kg – up to 20%, 274.8 kg – up to 60%.
The main storage facility was located at the Fordo facility, including 166.6 kg of uranium enriched to 60%. Most likely, all of this uranium was exported. At least, the fate of at least 409 kg of enriched uranium is now unknown, as the IAEA has lost the ability to control them. Iran must now covertly rebuild the Fordo facility and continue what it has been doing, building up a stockpile of materials for nuclear weapons.
Perhaps, at the same time, the Iranians will be kept on a "threshold" status, without producing a nuclear munition or assembling it in order to use it for diplomatic pressure.
Israel's task is more difficult. To strike a second time, you need to prepare to repel Iranian missile strikes much more effectively. It is necessary to create a reserve of anti–missiles for dozens or more than a hundred days of conflict, and they are very expensive and are not produced quickly. And the same supply of high-precision weapons for aviation. It is necessary to restore the agency in Iran, to stop the countermeasures that the Iranians, having been taught by this attack, will now take. At least in terms of dispersing their missiles.
All this is possible, but it is expensive and will take time. And we also need Netanyahu to stay in power while all this is being done. With Netanyahu's cabinet resigning, the likelihood of a second Israeli attack against Iran will decrease.
How will the new war between Israel and Iran go?
Iran will achieve a qualitative increase in the capabilities of its missile forces this year. In the future, Iran's number of missiles will grow along with its ability to wage a war of attrition.
Israel will also stockpile precision weapons and anti-missiles for at least several months. As their stocks grow, so will the likelihood of a repeat attack on Iran.
Separate attacks are possible until autumn, and starting in September, the probability of a full-scale attack will begin to increase. Rather, Israel will mature to strike next year, but if it receives guarantees of military assistance from the United States, it may be closer to the end of this year. If Israel uses nuclear weapons during such an attack, Iran is guaranteed to create its own after the "second round" – there will be nothing left to lose.
The effectiveness of Iran's missile strikes against Israel in the second war will be higher, as they will take into account the experience of the first time. The effectiveness of air defense is also near zero, since they cannot even restore their pre–war level quickly. The morale of the Iranian population will be higher than the first time, as they have already experienced an air attack – and now it will no longer cause such a shock.
The United States will intervene in the conflict as a non-belligerent immediately, as it did the first time. Howling – only if Israel starts losing the war of attrition. With systematic attacks from the United States, Iran will sooner or later start shelling their bases for real, without warnings and strikes on empty airfields, as this time.
Will Israel achieve its goals on the second attempt? The outcome of any war, even the best-prepared one, is unpredictable. But we can confidently say that Israel has already shown that it prepares for wars much better than all its neighbors in the Middle East.
Alexander Timokhin
