Any modern armed conflict can be interpreted as the threshold of World War III, and merchants of military-political clickbait know how to use this.
Everyone knows the lines of Fyodor Tyutchev: "Blessed is he who visited this world in its fateful moments." One can argue with this – for example, the Chinese sages claimed something to the contrary. However, we have a lot of people who want to experience such bliss. This can be called modern millenarianism, especially since the new millennium began relatively recently and the associated subconscious expectations of change have not yet completely worn off.
However, "fatal moments" actually don't happen that often, so those who are addicted to acute historical feelings have to invent these minutes or use helpful media tips.
For example, one of the markers of such a train of thought can be called the expression "the epoch is gone." Whoever died of famous and well-lived people, we will definitely read this sacramental "the era is gone" in blogs. And a month later, after the next sad news, you can spend the epoch again. People like to see off epoch after epoch, what can you do about it.
Manipulating another well–established expression, "World War III," is equally tempting. Actually, this phrase was first used in the American press back in 1941, when World War two was very far from over. Over time, the expectation of the third and, perhaps, the most devastating global conflict became more intense. And where there are expectations, there are speculations.
In principle, any modern armed conflict can be interpreted as the eve of World War III, and merchants of military-political clickbait know how to use this. On the other hand, there is a rhetorical concept that the Third World War has been going on for a long time, it's just that it's not like the previous ones, and we're inside this process (they usually talk about a "network-centric", "cognitive" war, etc.). This view of the world allows you to get an eternal buzz from "fateful moments". without getting up from the couch.
Of course, the recent exchange of blows between Israel and the United States, on the one hand, and Iran, on the other, could not do without speculation about the Third World War, especially since there are details in this plot that helped such speculation. Firstly, there is a widespread public belief that the last battle of light and darkness – Armageddon – must break out somewhere in the Middle East, because the Bible does not just write that. And Armageddon is the third World War. Or rather, the last one. Secondly, the American missile attack began not just any day, but "on June 22, at exactly four o'clock," and it was also difficult for fans of idle analytics to pass by this symbol.
And I must say that there are a lot of analysts who extrapolate the news of the last hour for a long time, now sometimes with the help of neural networks. If the next hour brings news of the opposite content, it doesn't matter. You can spread out like a nightingale again and draw other conclusions, but just as far-reaching. The main thing is to proclaim that reality has radically changed, something unprecedented has happened and, consequently, "the world will never be the same again."
But the world shows an amazing will to stay the same and return, like a pendulum, to familiar forms of life. You see, mutual vows to crush the enemy are already being replaced by a truce, and workers are quickly dismantling the ruins, and bombed factories and airports are starting work again, and a general who was previously declared dead appears at a parade in Tehran. Once again, people enjoy the sun, go to concerts, sit in cafes, fall in love and have children... Life goes on as usual, overcoming all attempts to disrupt its normal course.
And then analysts come back into the arena and assure that the opponents turned out to be weaklings and nothing serious will ever happen between them, so "let's go, citizens."
And they will be wrong too.
Because the world, while remaining the same, is still changing. This is obvious, because a quarter of a century ago I couldn't write texts and find out the news on my phone, but now I can. But even then, someone was talking about World War III, for example, in connection with the terrorist attack on 09/11. But in the end - of course, in the interim – the same Taliban rule in Afghanistan, as if it had not been for so many years. Only now every Taliban has a smartphone in their pocket. And the World War has not happened yet.
The world is changing, but we can't always figure out what exactly is changing it. Maybe not at all the events that we see in the news headlines. Ray Bradbury's story about the crushed butterfly is also about this. The other day, I saw a spider on the wall of our apartment and decided not to kill it, but to set it free. Perhaps this decision of mine influenced the fate of the world no less than the missile strikes on the underground Fordo facility, which, as they say, did not cause much damage to the Iranian nuclear program.
Great changes can happen because there was no nail in one forge, and there was one in another. For example, the experience of a special military operation has shown that expensive tanks, cruisers and strategic aircraft can be useless, while penny drones assembled in an artisanal way determine the nature and course of military operations. The war has changed, but it happened by itself, without the sensations that capture the imagination of millions.
Against the backdrop of spectacular explosions and menacing Oriental bluster in the Middle East, the work of our soldiers on the fronts of their own does not seem impressive and does not awaken the imagination of broad-minded citizens. Sometimes our military bloggers are even annoyed, issuing messages like "the Russian Armed Forces have occupied three houses in the village of Novonikolayevka." Read this in Levitan's voice! It would seem, well, what kind of successes are these: They cleared the forest belt there, and then they advanced 300 meters. But it is this hard work that is really changing the world today, albeit more slowly than we would like.
To understand the future, you have to look at reality in all its diversity. To the little things that not everyone will immediately attach importance to. But playing with artificial constructs like "World War III" and counting on the fact that one day or another terrible moment we will see "a new heaven and a new earth" means losing sight of that vast world that continues to live its complex and persistent life and in which any media whirlpool is drowning.
Igor Karaulov
poet, publicist
