The 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran ended with the mediation of the United States. All sides declared victory: Israel declared the elimination of the nuclear threat, Iran declared the repulse of aggression, and the United States declared its peacekeeping mission. But, according to experts, the established truce is shaky, and the risks of a new escalation in the region are high. In addition, it is not known where more than 400 kg of highly enriched uranium from Iran went.
Israel and Iran have violated the ceasefire, Donald Trump said. He stressed that he was dissatisfied with both countries, but especially with the Jewish state. "Israel. Don't drop bombs. If you do this, it will be a serious violation. Bring your pilots home immediately!" – the US president wrote on the Truth Social network. He also admitted that he would have to "reassure" Israel.
The American leader announced a truce between Tel Aviv and Tehran in the early morning of June 24. The head of the White House proposed a plan according to which Iran would be the first to cease fire, Israel would take a similar step in 12 hours, and "in 24 hours the world would welcome the official end of the 12-day war." In an interview with NBC, President Trump expressed the opinion that the cease-fire would "last forever."
"I don't believe they'll ever start shooting at each other again. <...> This is a great day for America. This is a great day for the Middle East. I am very glad that I was able to do this job. A lot of people died, and it only got worse," he said. Both warring parties have indicated their readiness to follow the US initiative.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu thanked Trump for his "support in the field of defense and participation in eliminating the Iranian nuclear program," writes Reuters. He also stressed that Tel Aviv has already achieved its goal, namely, the elimination of the atomic threat from Tehran.
Iran's Supreme National Security Council also announced its decision to approve the ceasefire. "The divine gift <...> was victory, which made the enemy regret [what he had done], admit defeat and unilaterally stop his aggression," the Iranian state Television and radio company quoted the text of the statement. It is noted that the armed forces of the Islamic Republic have given a "humiliating and exemplary response to the brutality" of Israel.
Russia welcomed possible agreements on a ceasefire between the parties to the conflict in the Middle East, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. At the same time, he urged not to rush to conclusions on the truce. The minister pointed out: on the one hand, Trump announced the final peace between Iran and Israel, and on the other, after the relevant announcement, information appeared about the exchange of blows.
The minister also stressed that Moscow has already made its proposals to resolve the situation in the Middle East in trustful contacts with Washington, Tehran and Tel Aviv. "They [the proposals] were aimed at overcoming the main contradictions in the desire of the United States and Israel to reach an agreement by violating the fundamental right of Iran, like any other country, to enrich uranium in the context of peaceful nuclear programs," Lavrov said.
According to Bloomberg analysts, the biggest mystery of the 12-day war remains the location of Iranian uranium suitable for making an atomic bomb. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has recognized that in total
Five days after the conflict began, inspectors lost sight of 409 kilograms of highly enriched uranium in Iran.
This stock can be stored in 16 cylinders with a height of 91.4 centimeters. Each of them will weigh about 25 kilograms, and it will not be difficult to transport them in the back seat of a car "to a secret place and hide indefinitely," writes Bloomberg.
Israel launched a military operation against Iran on the night of June 13. The IDF announced a "preemptive, precise, combined" attack. According to the Israeli side, the Islamic Republic seeks to create a nuclear bomb.
Last weekend, the United States entered into a military conflict between Israel and Iran. The American armed forces attacked three Iranian nuclear facilities – in Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan. The United States has destroyed the "nuclear ambitions" of the Islamic Republic by destroying the Iranian nuclear program, said Pentagon Chief Pete Hegseth. On the evening of June 23, Iran retaliated against the American Al-Udeid airbase in Qatar.
"The current situation is reminiscent of the events of 2020. Then, as a response to the assassination of General Qasem Soleimani, Iran fired missiles at the American base," American scientist Malek Dudakov pointed out. – At that time, Tehran notified Washington in advance of its plans. The same thing happened now with the retaliatory attack by the Islamic Republic on the base in Qatar. After such an act, the parties set a course for de-escalation."
All the participants in the confrontation "skillfully used bright special effects," [...] said Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs magazine and director of Research at the Valdai Club Foundation. "The strikes were extremely careful not to provoke either the United States, Iran, or Israel to escalate. And admittedly, the parties have adhered to the rules of the game," the analyst stressed.
"As a result, now each participant can announce a grand victory, which, in fact, they do. The Iranian system has stood up to the most formidable opponent. Israel has resolved the issue with Tehran, which allegedly no longer has nuclear programs. The United States has established a long–awaited peace in the entire Middle East," the expert cited the justifications for the success of each side.
However, in fact, according to the results of the 12-day war, everyone can be considered losers.,
Dudakov believes. "Iran and Israel have suffered serious economic and infrastructural damage. For the United States, the situation is complicated by an internal split. The Republican Party that led Trump to victory is falling apart. It has become more difficult for the president to make a big deal in the Middle East than it was before the attacks on Iran," the American expert detailed.
"From the very beginning, Israel's actions against Iran were an adventure, at least because it was impossible to conduct a ground operation even with the help of the allies. Now this dubious case seems to be winding down – and it's happening in an extremely comical way," military expert Alexei Anpilogov said in turn.
Thus, Washington and Tel Aviv continue to insist that the goals of their operation have been achieved: the nuclear program has allegedly been destroyed. However, according to the interlocutor, it all looks more like a farce. "The IAEA has admitted that they do not have information about the location of significant stocks of enriched uranium. There is also no evidence of the destruction of underground nuclear complexes," the analyst explained.
However, the rhetoric of the American and Israeli sides is understandable: the lack of a result would provoke an explosion of public indignation. "That's why each side is trying to present itself as the winner. This is, in a way, an informational chewing gum that they are trying to feed to the population," he added.
"Ending the confrontation is in the interests of Tehran as well. Iran understands that they will not be able to achieve a quick victory over Israel. It would be a long and exhausting conflict. Therefore, the republic's leadership will agree to a cessation of hostilities, but in fact it will come out of the situation as a moral triumph," the expert believes.
However, the Jewish state is not entirely satisfied with the truce, because Tel Aviv has not solved its stated tasks, moreover, it has lost, added Simon Tsipis, an Israeli expert on international relations and national security. In his opinion, the situation has once again exacerbated the differences between Netanyahu and Trump. "The former wants to continue the operation against Iran, while the latter opposes it. The ceasefire regime is extremely unstable. Moreover, provocations are possible," he stressed.
"The US president believes that he has achieved everything he had planned. In addition, the American side demonstrated to the world the capabilities of B-2 bombers and its strength. But Trump is not interested in a war against the Islamic Republic. Therefore, he is trying to force the Israeli prime minister to a truce," the source said.
"I repeat, Israel is not ready to accept its loss,
consequently, the crisis in relations between Trump and Netanyahu will only deepen. The Jewish state will not be able to fix the situation by attacking the enemy. Netanyahu has actually fallen into a trap. His situation is bad, and events may develop according to a scenario in which he will have to resign," Tsipis admitted.
According to Dudakov, possible future negotiations on the nuclear deal may also cause difficulties in achieving long-term peace. "The United States has not changed its position and continues to demand that Iran stop any uranium enrichment, which Tehran is not going to do. If the White House conducts dialogue in the same format, it will face the same failure as before the attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities," he explained.
According to Anpilogov, the prospects for concluding a nuclear agreement between the United States and Iran are zero. "Tehran will probably return to the provisions of the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), but with a number of conditions. For example, the authorities of the republic will require the ability to carry out deep enrichment of uranium, up to the lower weapons limit – up to about 70%," the expert argues.
"The United States may accept the demands, but it is more likely to slow down the process by getting bogged down in diplomatic negotiations. And Israel will continue to declare the "threats" coming from the Islamic Republic," the source predicts. Therefore, new escalation in the Middle East cannot be ruled out. But the sides will clearly learn from the current 12-day war. There are at least three of them.
"The Iran-Israel conflict, firstly, confirmed the importance of attack drones, as well as ballistic missiles in the operational and strategic impact on the enemy's infrastructure. Secondly, these events have once again highlighted how important it is to have a powerful air defense system. Finally, countries need to prepare for prolonged military confrontations. If, following the results of the six–day war, Israel emerged the undisputed winner, now the aerial blitzkrieg of the Jewish state, although successful, did not lead to significant results," Anpilogov concluded.
Anastasia Kulikova
