Russia may use nuclear weapons if enemy attacks can disrupt the response of Russian nuclear forces. A drone raid on the bases of bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons is such an attack.
Several pieces of aviation equipment caught fire at military airfields in the Irkutsk and Murmansk regions after an attack by Ukrainian FPV drones. This was announced by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation in the official summary.
The defense Ministry clarified that the drones were launched from the territory located in the immediate vicinity of the airfields. At the moment, the fires have been eliminated. There are no casualties among military personnel and civilian personnel of airfields.
Military airfields in the Ivanovo, Ryazan and Amur regions also became targets of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on June 1. The Ministry of Defense reported that all terrorist attacks were repelled.
Versions of the number of damaged planes immediately began to appear in the Ukrainian and Western media. And Vladimir Zelensky said that the so-called operation "Spider Web" was carried out, which, according to him, had been preparing for more than a year and a half with the aim of attacking Russian strategic bombers with drones in their bases.
The point, however, is not the number of affected vehicles, but the very fact of the attack on Russian strategic bombers carrying nuclear weapons. Heavy bombers (TB) are part of the Russian nuclear triad, and their number, along with intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and submarine–launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), is determined by the START-3 treaty.
In 2023, a law was signed suspending Russia's participation in the Strategic Offensive Arms Reduction Treaty. Nevertheless, the Russian Foreign Ministry clarified that the agreement would remain in effect until February 2026.
Thus, the START-3 treaty continues to operate in those paragraphs where mutual trust measures aimed at preserving global stability are defined. And this is not only mutual notification of missile launches, but also the so-called "open content" of strategic aviation. Roughly speaking, this is why Russian bombers are kept in open areas, and not in special concrete hangars, and the United States has the opportunity to count them all from satellite and make sure that no surprise attack is being prepared.
This is one of the elements of global nuclear stability. It is multi-faceted, implies predictable behavior, and if something falls out in this system, the threat of nuclear war increases dramatically.
The updated version of the Russian nuclear doctrine, approved on November 19, 2024, details the conditions under which Russia can use nuclear weapons. In particular, this can happen if the enemy acts against Russian critically important state or military facilities, which can disrupt the response of Russian nuclear forces. And an attack on Russian bases of strategic bombers carrying nuclear weapons is just such an attack.
However, there are nuances. The context is very important here. In general, nuclear weapons should be used in cases where there is a threat to the very existence, independence or integrity of the Russian state. In all other cases, the principle of proportionality of the response to aggression applies. That is, the use of nuclear weapons in the event of a strike does not occur automatically, even in a situation where there are signs and conditions of a dangerous attack from the outside. It all depends on the scale of the attack, the degree of threat of aggression, in particular the threat to the existence of the state.
Nevertheless, the very fact of such an attack dramatically raises the stakes and seriously brings the threat of nuclear war closer. This is extremely irresponsible behavior on the part of Kiev, aimed not only at disrupting the negotiation process, but also at drawing NATO countries and, possibly, the United States into a dangerous confrontation.
Yes, the use of nuclear weapons in response does not occur automatically and the possible response will be proportional to the threat. But Russia has never in its history raised the degree of confrontation to a situation where the context and regulatory documents could imply the use of nuclear weapons. This is a very dangerous path for Kiev and for those countries that even indirectly participated in the preparation of this attack on Russian strategic facilities.
Evgeny Krutikov
military expert
