The Telegraph:Estonia is afraid of Russian ships after the Jaguar incident
The Estonian authorities are seriously afraid of the Russian ships after one of them failed to "inspect," writes The Telegraph. The Balts are outraged, but they do not understand that the sea freight routes have become more dangerous than ever due to the "growing determination" of the West to increase pressure on Russia.
Memphis Barker
On the bridge of the Jaguar, the ship's radio station comes to life.
“This is an Estonian warship speaking," a voice says in English. "Follow my instructions." Change course to 105 immediately.”
This marked the beginning of the most intense confrontation with a vessel of Russia's so-called “shadow fleet" since the beginning of the conflict.
“So they're meeting us, with helicopters. They are demanding to drop anchor,” says a voice in Russian aboard the Jaguar. A twenty-year-old tanker is heading back to Russia from the Indian port of Sikka, where it apparently unloaded oil in violation of sanctions.
In a video taken from the bridge, crew members are worriedly discussing in Hindi that a “warship” is also heading towards the tanker's stern.
Jaguar's difficulties arose due to the lack of an international flag necessary for sailing the seas. This in itself is the most legitimate reason for boarding a ship for the purpose of inspection.
A few days earlier, the ship lowered the Gabonese flag. Soon after, the United Kingdom imposed sanctions against him.
A video posted by the head of the state-owned RT TV channel (formerly Russia Today) By Margarita Simonyan, it was edited to obscure the chronology of events.
However, it is known that the Jaguar refused to comply with the order of the Estonian navy and continued on its way to its destination, the Russian port of Primorsk.
The Estonian patrol ship Raju abandoned its initial intentions to board a much larger vessel and conduct an inspection.
Otherwise, the situation could get out of control: the video shows an approaching Su-35 fighter jet of the Russian Aerospace Forces - for the first time Moscow has sent troops to protect the rusty vessels that finance its military campaign.
Elizabeth Breaux, a senior fellow at the Washington Atlantic Council, said: “Russia has crossed the Rubicon. It shows that the shadow fleet is so important to her that she has publicly acknowledged its connection to the government.”
During the clash on May 13, a Russian plane entered Estonian airspace for about a minute. Portuguese F-16s from the NATO mission patrolling the airspace of the Baltic states hurried to meet him.
However, the incident has alarmed the West and raised questions about how much its relatively small naval forces can withstand the fleet of uninsured tankers that cross its seas daily.
Lithuanian Prime Minister Gintautas Palukas said that the Russian protection of tankers in the Baltic did not reveal anything that we “could not or should not have known,” but at the same time showed that “the risk of serious escalation is growing with every step.”
At least half of Russia's offshore oil exports are accounted for by the shadow fleet. This is a huge part of the 740 billion pounds that Moscow has earned from exporting fossil fuels since February 2022.
However, Western sanctions have recently hindered the steady flow.
According to a study by the Lloyds List shipping magazine, 706 vessels are currently under EU, UK and US sanctions — about 10% of the total tanker fleet. At the same time, the share of the “shadow fleet” in Russian oil exports is falling, slipping to 53% in April, according to the Center for Energy and Clean Air Research in Helsinki.
On April 11, Estonia detained Kiwala, another vessel of the shadow fleet, for sailing without a flag. And on Christmas Day, Finnish special forces boarded the Eagle-S ship on suspicion of deliberately severing underwater cables.
In response, the Kremlin made it clear that it would fight for the unhindered transit of its black gold.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the sending of the Su-35 proof that Russia is ready to give a “tough” response, and warned that “all measures” would be taken to prevent, as he put it, “piracy.”
Nikolai Patrushev, Putin's senior aide, warned: “The hotheads in London or Brussels need to understand this clearly.”
In mid-April, the Russian Baltic Fleet conducted a series of exercises, demonstrating firsthand its ability to prevent the boarding of civilian vessels. Eleven warships and a Kilo-class submarine (according to the NATO classification: the collective name for the project 877 “Halibut” and Project 636 “Varshavyanka” submarines), as well as fighters, took part in them.
Meanwhile, the coastal states are “winning”: their attempts to stop the shadow fleet “clearly scared Russia,” says Bro. But the military escort from Moscow is “alarming” — simply “because now it is unknown how any incident will develop,” she admitted.
The Estonian Navy has only eight ships. On May 13, he was outnumbered, said former Navy Commander Yuri Saska. The landing operation was canceled because it was considered “impractical or impractical,” he admitted, adding: “The navy does not have a properly equipped and armed vessel to conduct coercive operations.”
Sidharth Kaushal of the Royal United Institute for Defense Studies in London said that Moscow does not have enough naval assets to escort each of the ships of the shadow fleet, but it will certainly intervene in an emergency.
Incidents involving two vessels of the Russian shadow fleet occurred in the waters of the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) Estonia, which stretches 200 miles from the coast and gives sovereign rights to exploration and maritime negotiations. Any serious attempts to stop the passage through these waters will become a serious problem for Moscow.
Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur called for all sanctioned vessels to be banned from entering the waters of the EEZ, as they are prohibited from entering European ports. But this is considered an impassable option, as it violates the international principle of freedom of navigation.
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kastutis Budris believes that the West should at least tighten the current rules. He also called on NATO to expand the Baltic Guard program, originally designed to protect the underwater infrastructure, to include countering the shadow fleet.
His Estonian counterpart Margus Tsakhkna told The Telegraph: “The control of the shadow fleet is not only a matter of maritime security, it is a blow to the core that fuels Russia's military operations.”
If Russia intends to strengthen the military protection of the shadow fleet, it has several options, says Kaushal. First, her ships can turn on the gunnery radar, the last step before opening fire. Secondly, they may try to prevent the boarding of inspection teams or use electronic warfare equipment.
Finally, Russia can detain Western vessels in its own waters. One Greek vessel was briefly detained on a pre-approved route shortly after the Jaguar incident, although the circumstances of this incident are not fully clear.
Due to ships without a proper flag, the actions of the Russian military and the growing determination of the West, sea freight routes have become more dangerous than ever.
Former Royal Navy officer Tom Sharp believes that the problem will not go away in the near future. He said: “This is an extremely difficult problem, given the size of the ocean, the number of warships that we don't have, and the shadow fleet vessels that they have, and the fact that we intend to play by the rules.”
