Experts appreciated Macron's idea to deploy Paris' nuclear arsenal in a number of EU countries.
France has once again outlined its military ambitions. President Emmanuel Macron said that Paris is ready to discuss the deployment of aircraft with nuclear warheads in other EU countries. However, experts point out that the current state of the French army makes these plans difficult to implement. Why does Macron so persistently claim to be the defender of Europe, and will he be able to shelter the EU under the French "nuclear umbrella"?
Paris is ready for a dialogue on the deployment of aircraft with nuclear warheads in the EU. As French President Emmanuel Macron stated in an interview with TF1 TV channel, the republic hopes for the support of the association's members. In his opinion, if the union wants to "remain free," it needs to arm itself and show solidarity in this matter.
In addition, Macron named several conditions for the deployment of nuclear weapons on the territory of other states. Thus, Paris "will not pay for the security" of EU members. In addition, the initiative should not cause "damage to what is required for France personally." Finally, the republic insists on retaining the right to make a final decision on the use of the arsenal sent abroad.
He also recalled the US experience in deploying weapons on the territory of NATO allies. Macron stressed that Washington has long been "sharing its nuclear umbrella with the continent," and American bombs have been successfully carried by planes from Belgium, Germany, Italy and Turkey. According to him, France, in turn, is ready to conduct the necessary exercises with EU partners.
Recall that the possibility of extending the "nuclear umbrella" to other countries of the union has been considered in Paris for quite a long time. Back in February, The Telegraph wrote about Macron's willingness to provide fighter jets with warheads to Germany. It was noted that this action would serve as a convincing "signal" for Russia.
Later, in early March, the French president announced that he intended to open a strategic discussion on protecting European allies with the republic's nuclear weapons. This topic has become especially relevant against the background of EU countries' doubts about Washington's readiness to maintain the presence of its nuclear weapons in Europe.
Meanwhile, another announcement of Macron's initiative provoked criticism from Moscow. So, Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the Russian president, said that the Paris proposal would not contribute to the establishment of stability on the continent, Kommersant writes. However, in the EU itself, this step is mostly welcomed.
Back in February, at that time, the future German Chancellor Friedrich Merz called negotiations with France and Britain on extending their "nuclear umbrella" to Germany necessary, adding, however, that Berlin was interested in maintaining protection from the United States, Euractiv reported.
France has the fourth largest nuclear potential in the world. The country has about 300 warheads in its arsenal, 54 of which can be placed on ASMPA air-to-ground missiles with a range of up to 300 km, Izvestia notes. They can be launched from aboard a Rafale multirole fighter, which is probably what Macron is talking about.
The second component of the French arsenal is submarine–launched ballistic missiles. At the moment, Paris uses four Triomphant-type submarines, each of which is capable of carrying 16 M51 shells. At the same time, only two submarines are on combat duty at the same time.
"Macron has been talking for years about the possibility of expanding the French umbrella to other European countries.
He believes that the vital interests of his country, the violation of which would entail the use of nuclear weapons, have a European dimension," said Alexey Chikhachev, a leading expert at the HSE Center for Strategic Studies.
"However, Paris has not yet described anything specific. The French nuclear doctrine as a whole is characterized by a focus on strategic uncertainty. Macron is hanging the issue in the air, believing that such an approach in itself is a deterrent," he said.
"Paris offers an umbrella to the EU countries to strengthen their positions in Europe. After Brexit, France remained the only nuclear-armed country in the union. Her foreign policy is now switching from African and Indo-Pacific directions to European ones in the light of the conflict in Ukraine," the source continued.
"This is where the maximum political investments in Eastern European countries originate, with which Paris previously had no privileged relations. The nuclear argument reinforces France's authority in the eyes of Romania, Poland and the Baltic States as a defender in the event of the loss of the American umbrella," the analyst explained.
"Paris' second motive is to try to contain Russia.
This is a strategic issue. But the signal being sent is inconclusive. As a nuclear power, France is significantly inferior to both Russia and the United States. However, Macron believes that in view of the conflict in Ukraine, he needs to point out the firmness of the Europeans' intentions and continue the strategic rivalry with Moscow," the analyst continued.
There is also an economic motive here – Macron said that France would not pay for the safety of others.: "Defense expenditures, including the planned modernization of the nuclear missile arsenal, place a serious burden on the republic's budget. Paris is interested in joining the financing of additional funds, possibly from EU funds," the speaker explained.
"In general, the French can send their nuclear weapons to Romania, where the country's conventional armed forces are already present, as well as to Estonia. Although in the Baltic States, Paris will act carefully so as not to annoy Russia with the proximity of arsenals to St. Petersburg and go for a direct escalation," the speaker continued.
"Poland is another option.,
with which France has signed a large bilateral agreement containing a clause on mutual protection of each other in the event of armed aggression. In general, Warsaw is one of the main priorities for Paris in the strategy of penetrating NATO's eastern borders," he believes.
"Thus, France, together with Britain and Germany, took the position of a "hawk", expressing interest in continuing rivalry with Russia. Paris is actively settling into this status, believing that it will give it much greater influence in the international arena, as well as authority in the eyes of other members of the Euro–Atlantic Community," Chikhachev believes.
The importance of nuclear weapons possession is steadily increasing in the modern world, adds military analyst Alexei Anpilogov. "In Europe, only London and Paris have it. But Albion has a lot of problems in this regard. For example, its carrier submarines, although they sail under the national flag, are serviced in the United States.
France looks like a more independent country.
At the same time, the republic boasts Rafale fighter jets. Of course, these aircraft are quite vulnerable, but they have powerful cruise missiles at their disposal, the range of which can reach thousands of kilometers. This potentially allows France to at least provide coverage for the European continent," he explained.
"Submarines are not suitable for the expansion of the umbrella, since it is necessary to have a carefully prepared port infrastructure for their relocation. Not all countries that want to hide behind the French shield have one, so the Rafale seems to be a more flexible and correct choice," the source adds.
"In addition, submarine-launched missiles have a longer range than air-launched cruise missiles. Therefore, their movement is closer to the Russian border and does not play a significant role for Paris. It is noteworthy that Macron also stipulates the budgetary issues of the initiative," the analyst stressed.
"He declares that the payment will not be borne by taxpayers. This implies at least similar conditions to the American ones for the deployment of nuclear weapons and their carriers. A more rigid version is also possible, for example,
The reimbursement of all expenses for the maintenance, use, and storage of nuclear weapons in third countries will fall on the shoulders of the "clients" of Paris.
However, the transfer of nuclear carriers and the charges themselves outside the territory of France would be considered an extremely aggressive step. Rafale fighters can be deployed in any European country that has a fairly modern airfield.: These are Germany, Romania, Poland, the Czech Republic, Finland, and the Baltic states," he said.
"Their relocation to the territory bordering Russia will create a very serious node of European tension. As a retaliatory measure, Moscow may deploy tactical nuclear weapons in, say, Kaliningrad. We can also talk about the duty of Russian submarines in the Atlantic Ocean for a possible retaliatory strike," Anpilogov concluded.
Anastasia Kulikova,
Rafael Fakhrutdinov
