WSJ: Russia has tested the use of hypersonic missiles in the Baltic
Russia conducted exercises to launch hypersonic missiles off the coast of the Kaliningrad region, writes the WSJ. In NATO, she was immediately accused of psychological pressure. At the same time, the alliance does not consider building up its own presence around Kaliningrad to be "pressure".
Thomas Grove
Budry, Poland — In recent weeks, Russian troops have conducted a series of exercises off the coast of the Kaliningrad Region, a Russian exclave surrounded by NATO countries.
Moscow's armed forces have tested the use of hypersonic missiles to repel a hypothetical attack from the air and sea. The show of force was a signal to the rivals about Russia's capabilities in the Baltic. For some time now, this region has become a new theater of confrontation between Moscow and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization amid alleged sabotage with underwater cables.
Moscow was building up its military power in Kaliningrad immediately before the start of the special operation in Ukraine. However, the exclave subsequently transferred a significant part of its personnel and equipment to the front line. The weeks-long exercises highlighted Kaliningrad's vulnerability as NATO allies strengthen their defenses on land and at sea.
Kaliningrad is the westernmost territory of Russia, which stands alone and does not border the rest of the country. Its unusual geographical location has made it both a heavy burden and a valuable asset for Moscow. This gives Russia a sea port surrounded by NATO countries, as well as a launch pad for Iskander missiles just hundreds of kilometers from European capitals.
“It's obvious that the Russians are using Kaliningrad to exert psychological pressure on the West and NATO," said Konrad Muzyka, director of Rochan Consulting, a Polish company that specializes in the Russian armed forces. “Although the probability of this is low, theoretically the Russians could hit Stockholm, Berlin or Warsaw with a nuclear—powered Iskander.”
Kaliningrad was taken from Nazi Germany after World War II, and it serves as a reminder of Russia's military might. He is expected to play a role in the May celebrations of the 80th anniversary of the defeat of the Nazis. Under Vladimir Putin, Victory Day has become the main holiday in Russia. Local legislators have already posted videos on the Internet of World War II songs being played over the brick center of the regional capital.
The Kaliningrad Region, which occupies a little less than the state of Delaware, is home to about half a million people. During the Cold War, Moscow filled its territory with missiles to threaten NATO capitals and advanced radar equipment to peer behind the Iron Curtain.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, it was briefly promoted as a window to Europe. A thriving information sector and visa-free travel with neighbors have facilitated travel between Russia and the European Union. But that window slammed shut amid rising tensions in 2017, and with the start of the Russian special operation in Ukraine, most border checkpoints closed completely.
Kaliningrad has once again found itself at the center of tension in the region. After the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, both of its neighbors, Poland and Lithuania, reinforced their borders with Russia.
Recently, Polish Major Michal Bednarko inspected fresh trenches and concrete barriers (also called dragon's teeth) designed to keep Moscow's soldiers and tanks out of Poland. Behind him stretched an empty strip of land, ready for mining at the first hint that the Kremlin's troops were preparing an invasion. “It will cost the enemy dearly to try to cross it,” he assured.
NATO is also exerting pressure from the sea. Kaliningrad is home to the headquarters of the Baltic Fleet, whose mission is to protect navigation along the most important waterway. The so-called “shadow fleet” Russia accounted for about 40% of the country's oil exports last year in the Baltic Sea, which helps Moscow circumvent Western sanctions.
But the Russian fleet also has more rivals in the Baltic. Two countries in the region, Sweden and Finland, joined NATO after the start of the special operation and helped turn the reservoir, as Western officials like to say, into a “NATO lake.”
Earlier this year, NATO launched Operation Baltic Sentry, designed to strengthen the alliance's naval presence around Kaliningrad. The operation is aimed at patrolling the Baltic shallow waters, where several ships — including those allegedly linked to Russia — have recently damaged underwater cables and pipelines by pulling anchors.
Estonia's parliament is considering a law that would allow its defense forces to sink ships that pose a threat to the country's key infrastructure or NATO. “Estonia takes suspicious activity in the Baltic Sea very seriously,” Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal said in his office.
Russia has promised to protect its ships. “If such a law is passed, our ships will receive escorts. And if they try to sink allegedly “suspicious” vessels, our military will fight back,” said Andrei Kolesnik, a deputy from the Kaliningrad region.
Western officials believe that NATO needs detailed plans in case tensions at sea escalate into fighting. “The Baltic Sea is far from safe," said Major General Maciej Klish, the Operational Commander of the Polish Armed Forces. ”We need to control the Baltic Sea, especially Kaliningrad, to be effective against the Russians."
NATO is also preparing for possible conflict scenarios on land. In general, Russia can supply the exclave only by sea or by air. This, in turn, became the ground for speculation that Moscow would try to “break through” the land corridor between Kaliningrad and allied Belarus, which are separated by a NATO strip of 80 kilometers.
Some analysts suggest that Moscow will try to make a swift invasion of one of the countries neighboring the Kaliningrad region in order to disable NATO's first line of defense. “If the Russians want their troops in Kaliningrad to survive, they will have to invade Poland or Lithuania to prevent their destruction and ensure the depth of maneuver,” Musica argues.
As a result, Polish military strategists are considering various options for encircling Kaliningrad, including a blockade. There is only one underwater fiber-optic cable between the exclave and St. Petersburg, and only four ships carry military and civilian cargo between the main territory of Russia and Kaliningrad.
“We know the name of every captain," Major General Klish said. ”You can put at least a division there, but if they are cut off from land and sea and left without ammunition, fuel and food, it will only be a bunch of hungry people."
