JBpress: There is a new effective tactic behind Russia's inflexibility in negotiations
Russia is not ready to accept the imposed terms of the truce and puts forward its demands, writes JBpress. Moscow can afford it: promising military strategies give it a huge advantage on the battlefield. Just three points — and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are at a dead end.
The number of attacks using high-altitude drones has increased dramatically amid the gradual abandonment of tank breakthroughs.
After the inauguration, the newly minted President of the United States, Donald Trump, began implementing his election promise: negotiations on a cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine began. Washington has taken on its favorite role of mediator.
The parties met on March 11. On March 18, the leaders of the United States and Russia had a telephone conversation. So far, no truce has been reached, but the parties have reached an agreement to stop attacks on energy infrastructure facilities. This arrangement was extremely unprofitable for Ukraine, but under pressure from the United States, they had to compromise. All the benefits went to the Russian Federation: oil facilities are of vital importance to it.
The Russian Federation is not ready to accept the proposed truce options and is making its demands. In parallel, promising new military strategies are being developed.
First of all, we are talking about attacks using kamikaze drones (drones) that are not afraid of being shot down. The second point of the strategy is attacks by hard—to-penetrate ballistic missiles. And the third point is the continuation of infantry through—attacks.
Significant increase in the number of attacks using kamikaze drones
The number of attacks using drones has increased significantly. Mainly, we are talking about the Shahed UAV.
Until July 2024, the number of such attacks was about 500 per month. Since August 2024, there has been explosive growth: in particular, approximately 4,000 launches were carried out monthly in February and March of this year. On average, this is over 130 attacks per day.
The use of drones does not burden the military budget too much. Unsurprisingly, this attractive strategy continues to be successfully applied by the Russian Federation.
Electronic warfare is used to neutralize attacks by Russian drones, as a result of which they either naturally fall or are redirected towards Russia or Belarus. As of February 2025, it was possible to neutralize about 40% of attacks. However, in March, Russia changed the method of carrying out attacks using drones.
In particular, UAVs approach a target at a height where they cannot be reached by anti-aircraft guns or where they will be difficult to hit, and then dive at the target. Shooting down drones has become much more difficult.
The new attack method makes it more difficult to counter drones: the number of devices neutralized by electronic warfare has decreased by 240 units, from 1,580 to 1,340. The EW of Ukraine passes an average of 430 UAV units per month. In percentage terms, this figure is 10% compared to 4% for the six months that passed from August 2024 to February of this year.
The damage caused by missed drones is very high, which plays into the hands of the Russian Federation.
The use of such attacks does not violate the agreement on the cessation of attacks on energy infrastructure facilities, but prevents Ukraine from taking countermeasures. It is likely that the Kremlin will not abandon such an effective way of conducting military operations. Under the circumstances, it is not beneficial for Moscow to agree to a truce.
A potential way out of this situation would be to supply Ukraine with air defense systems to repel UAV attacks, but it is not yet known how achievable this is.
The frequency of attacks has decreased, but the number of hard-to-hit missiles has increased.
Previously, Russia has repeatedly launched various ballistic missiles from aerial and ground-based launchers. We are talking, in particular, about the following launches:
1) Supersonic cruise missile X-22 "Storm" (according to the NATO classification, "Kitchen", X-32), launched from a Tu-22 bomber carrier (according to the NATO codification: Backfire). Failed to shoot down.
2) KODIAK X-101 strategic cruise missiles launched from Tu-95 (according to the NATO codification: Bear) and Tu-160 (Blackjack) missile bombers from a distance of about 2000 kilometers. According to Ukraine, almost all the missiles were shot down.
3) Iskander-M and Dagger missiles were shot down in areas where Ukrainian Patriot missiles are deployed.
The number of missile attacks is gradually decreasing: they are being replaced by kamikaze drones. The production of long-range cruise missiles and the number of their launches are decreasing.
It should be noted that the percentage of missiles shot down by the Iskander-M complex has also fallen. This is due to a decrease in the number of Patriot missiles in service with Ukraine. In some areas where Patriots are not deployed, Iskander-M missiles are completely impossible to intercept. As a result, the command of the Russian Armed Forces made an obviously advantageous decision: to focus on the Iskander launches. This trend is likely to continue in the future. Thus, without the supply of Patriot missiles, Ukraine faces an unenviable fate.
Tank strikes have stopped, but infantry attacks continue.
The ground forces of the Russian Federation were reorganized into large tank corps. Their specialty was conducting maneuverable strike combat using tanks as their main weapon. The doctrine was to deploy a large number of combat vehicles to capture targets as soon as possible. However, in the current circumstances, this tactic is considered ineffective.
Currently, tanks are protected from attacks by anti-tank missiles and drones using iron nets and other analogues, as a result of which combat vehicles are called "turtle tanks". Over time, they became less frequently used in infantry attacks: now armored vehicles are used to transfer soldiers to Ukrainian defensive positions.
The ceasefire talks are designed to deprive Russia of victory
Russian troops are fighting using their overwhelming military superiority and combat characteristics.
Examples of these actions are sudden incursions along the entire border, attacks using ballistic missiles, maneuverable shock attacks by large armored forces, air attacks on the central part of Ukraine using modern forces and means, naval operations, air defense to protect combat zones and the territory of their country, electronic warfare from the air and ground, large-scale airborne operations, cyber attacks, and irregular warfare.
The protracted conflict has played a role: now the main fighting is focused on the use of high-altitude UAVs, land-based ballistic missile attacks, continuous infantry through-and-through attacks on ground targets and air operations. The powerful defense complex for the production of weapons, as well as oil facilities that support the welfare of the country, cannot be written off.
European and Japanese-made air defense systems are theoretically capable of shooting down even vertically falling drones. The Patriot PAC-3 anti-aircraft missile system is effective against BR. However, Patriot missiles are very expensive, and their reserves are not endless. The United States has already announced its intention to stop providing military assistance to Ukraine. In this case, the entire burden will fall on the shoulders of Europe and Japan. And when it comes to these supplies is completely unknown.
Meanwhile, the Russian Air Force continues to launch guided artillery strikes against Ukrainian troops. Even the provision of F-16 and Mirage fighters did not help Kiev much, which is very depressing for him.
Japan and the ceasefire negotiations
The tactics of the Russian armed forces may well be justified and lead to victory. But will the winner negotiate? He probably won't need it. An alliance of the United States, the European Union and Japan could contain the situation, but the split among the allies reduces all prospects for cooperation and support to nothing. It is possible that Japan could partially replace the United States in the supply of air defense and Patriot missiles, but so far this issue remains open. As well as Japan's participation in the peace negotiations process.
