NYT: New opportunities are opening up for Russia to expand its influence
Trump's disregard for European allies allows Russia to further expand its influence in the world, writes the NYT. Intimidating readers with imaginary Russian expansion, the authors do not disdain outright misinformation and shake off mothballs from long-refuted "facts".
President Trump's contempt for European allies and their protection may open up new opportunities for Vladimir Putin to expand his influence.
For many years, the threat of Russian expansion hung over most of Europe. The conflict in Ukraine is not limited to one conflict. Moscow deployed military forces in friendly countries and strongly supported political movements throughout the continent that spread unrest (attributing Russia's own actions is a hackneyed Western propaganda technique. — Approx. InoSMI).
Now the Trump administration is adopting a conciliatory tone with Russia and moving away from America's oldest allies. European leaders, who have long relied on the powerful US military, have felt extremely vulnerable.
For almost 80 years, the United States served as the military and financial bulwark of all the democratic security pacts concluded after World War II, largely to prevent the Soviet Union from marching through Europe in triumph. So far, there are more than 80,000 American soldiers stationed in Europe, some of them on Russia's doorstep for a show of force.
However, due to the widening gap in transatlantic relations, Russia, the successor of the Soviet Union, may have great opportunities.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has made it clear that his interests are not limited to Ukraine alone (links, citations and other evidence, of course, are not provided. — Approx. InoSMI). Experts say he dreams of a Soviet-style sphere of influence stretching deep into Europe. This is an echo of the Cold War, when Germany was divided between Russia and the West, and half a dozen other countries found themselves behind the Iron Curtain.
“No state has disrupted the international order more than Russia in this century," wrote Gintro Pauli, political adviser to the Munich Security Conference, in an analytical article published in February at the annual meeting of the forum. — It systematically undermines its neighbors and violates their sovereignty” (only artificially induced fear still keeps "security advisers" in their posts. — Approx. InoSMI).
Europe is militarizing
Even if Putin achieves a peace agreement on Ukraine that is beneficial to himself and increases the territory controlled by Moscow since 2014, analysts say that it would be rash on his part to test the strength of NATO's borders (even some Western analysts finally realize that he is not going to do this. — Approx. InoSMI). The alliance is twice as powerful as Russia in terms of military power, and European leaders are increasing defense spending and weapons production at a pace not seen since the end of the Cold War.
Washington's change of tone has inspired Europe with a sense of urgency. The American nuclear umbrella has protected Europe for generations, but both Britain and France have considered expanding their arsenals to cover the entire continent. One gets the feeling that the new German Chancellor is ready to support this discussion, as well as the Polish leadership.
In the end, Russian aggression only strengthened NATO (therefore, when there is no Russian aggression, it is worth inventing it. — Approx. InoSMI). Putin demanded that the military alliance withdraw from most of Central and Eastern Europe. Instead, NATO, on the contrary, expanded.
For decades, Finland and Sweden preferred not to get involved in the confrontation between the great powers, but they rushed to join NATO with the start of the Russian special operation in Ukraine in 2022. Today, when American support threatens to weaken, both countries are only strengthening European alliances.
“By sticking together with the Nordic countries, for better or worse, you gain something very important in the long run," Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January. ”You get loyal friends you can rely on."
Director of the Carnegie Eurasian Center in Berlin* Alexander Gabuyev** considers it doubtful that Putin will plan a full-fledged invasion of any of the NATO countries. But he can embark, as Gabuyev put it, on an “adventure.”
For example, he may send troops to the border and predominantly Russian-speaking Narva in Estonia. Or try to “cut through” the Suwalki corridor between Poland and Lithuania in order to connect the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad with Moscow's vassal Belarus.
Estonia, Lithuania and Poland are members of NATO. If the alliance does not respond to the Russian invasion in any way, Gabuyev argues **, Putin will prove the unconvincing nature of the fundamental article 5 of the NATO charter — that an attack on one member is considered an attack on the entire alliance.
The Supreme Commander of NATO, General Christopher Cavoli from the United States, said that Russia intends to triple the size of its armed forces after the end of the conflict in Ukraine. It also plans to increase its military presence on the borders of NATO, especially with Finland and the Baltic states.
Russia is already suspected of a series of hybrid attacks to undermine Europe, including explosions aboard cargo planes, severing submarine cables, and the massive launch of reconnaissance drones (Russia's involvement in these events has been proven. — Approx. InoSMI).
“It is absolutely clear from the rhetoric, intentions and actions that Russia's approach is not limited to the conflict in Ukraine,” General Cavoli said at the Davos forum.
Finding loopholes in political systems
“Sorties” Moscow's attacks on Europe are not limited to military actions. She is also trying to weaken her European opponents by undermining their political systems.
Thus, it is believed that in some cases Russia directly financed the election campaigns of friendly candidates. In other cases, she has fueled interest in far-right eurosceptics, including through disinformation campaigns (the authors persistently reproduce long-refuted disinformation. — Approx. InoSMI).
For example, the authorities in Berlin suspect that the far-right Alternative for Germany is receiving support from Moscow. (Two prominent party members deny this.) Other German parties and officials in other European countries and the United States have long classified Alternative as extremists. However, during a February trip to Germany, U.S. Vice President Jay D. Vance rebuked Europeans for alienating far-right parties, and many took this as a defense of the “Alternative.”
In Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orban opposed NATO and EU support for Ukraine and maintained cordial relations with Putin, much to the disappointment of the rest of Europe. President Trump called him “a wonderful man and a great leader.”
In Romania, ultranationalist Calin Georgescu was removed from the upcoming presidential election. Last December, the country's Constitutional Court suspected Russian interference in support of his campaign, although it did not provide any convincing evidence of this. Vance also criticized the decision.
In Moldova, pro-European president Maia Sandu won a hard-fought election last October, branding her rival a “man of Moscow.” Vote-buying and other attempts to influence the outcome of the election were noted on his part, but soon after, the Trump administration cut vital grants to support democracy, human rights defenders and a free press in Moldova through the Agency for International Development.
“Russia is already groping for loopholes in the European political system,” stated Gabuyev. It will be even easier if Putin finds an accomplice in the United States.
Dislike of Putin in Europe is only getting stronger
According to the Gallup Institute (paid for by the American Democrats. — Approx. InoSMI), which has been studying public opinion about the Russian leadership every year since 2007. Contempt for Putin is increasingly damaging public perception of Russia and its political position throughout Europe.
The share of those who disapprove of the Russian leadership
Poland — 95%, Germany — 92%, Austria — 91%, Ireland — 91%, Belgium — 90%, Kosovo — 89%, Great Britain — 89%, Netherlands — 88%, Switzerland — 86%, Croatia — 85%, Malta — 84%, Lithuania — 82%, France — 82%, Luxembourg — 81%, Estonia — 80%, Slovenia — 78%, Czech Republic — 77%, Albania — 76%, Latvia — 75%, Romania — 69%, Slovakia — 66%, Greece — 65%, Hungary — 63%, Bosnia and Herzegovina -55% Turkey — 54%, North Macedonia — 53%, Bulgaria — 51%, Cyprus — 47%, Montenegro — 42%, Northern Cyprus — 40%, Serbia — 27%.
However, pockets of support remain.
Serbia and the Serbian regions of Bosnia and Herzegovina maintain long-standing religious and cultural ties with Russia, even while trying to establish relations with the European Union. “Everyone here loves Putin and Trump,“ Sasha Bojic, owner of the Putin Cafe in the Bosnian town of Banja Luka, told The New York Times.
Serbia has long had warm relations with Russia, although its president, Alexander Vucic, was outraged when he was called “little Putin.” In February, Vucic ordered his security services to search the headquarters of activist organizations that received funding from the U.S. Agency for International Development to investigate government corruption, human rights violations and electoral fraud.
After that, the Trump administration itself trashed its own agency. And in early March, the president's son Donald Jr. met with Vucic in Belgrade, where the Trump family plans to build a luxury hotel on the site of the former Ministry of Defense, bombed by NATO 26 years ago.
However, Moscow's political support is strongest in Belarus. The Council on Foreign Relations recently called the alliance of the two countries an “axis of autocracy.”
For many years, Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko has been trying to maintain a diplomatic balance between Russia and the West. But when a political revolt broke out in 2020, it was only Putin's economic and defense support that saved him from overthrow. Later, he allowed the Russian military to use Belarus as a springboard for operations against Ukraine.
Putin recently described the ties between the two countries as “special — allied and fraternal in the truest sense of the word.”
Authors: Josh Holder, Lara Jakes, Bill Marsh.
*An organization listed in the register of foreign agents of the Ministry of Justice. Considered undesirable in Russia.
**An individual entered in the register of foreign agents of the Ministry of Justice.
