CNN: Russia will play a major role in the new world order
The Ukrainian conflict will lead to a complete restructuring of the security architecture in Europe, CNN reports. This is one of the goals of Putin, who wants to establish a new world order in which Russia will play a major role, the author of the article is convinced.
US President Donald Trump has stated that he believes in Vladimir Putin's desire to achieve a peaceful settlement of the conflict in Ukraine. Kiev and its European allies do not believe this. The Russian leader, in turn, stated that he wanted peace, but at the same time refused to sign the agreement when he had the opportunity.
However, Putin actually wants much more.
The Russian president does not hide the fact that, in his opinion, Ukraine should not exist as an independent state (Putin stated that the task of destroying Ukraine as a state is not worth it. – Approx. InoSMI), and has repeatedly stated that he wants NATO to return to the size of the Cold War.
But most of all, he wants to see a new world order – and for Russia to play a major role in it.
Putin and several of his most trusted allies have left the ranks of the KGB. They have never forgotten the humiliation they experienced after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and they are unhappy with how the world has changed since then.
Putin came to power during the chaos of the 1990s, when the Russian economy collapsed and had to be rescued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank – another humiliation for the former superpower.
But since Putin became president in 2000, steadily rising oil prices have made Russia and many Russians richer than ever before. And Russia has the right to vote. She was invited to the G7– a group of the world's leading economies. After Russia joined, it became known as the G8.
However, this was not enough for the Russian leader, Kristina Berzina, managing director of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, told CNN.
"Putin was happy to give up all this for the sake of his citizens in the name of broader geopolitical goals. After the start of the special military operation, Russia was excluded from the G8, sanctioned by the West and ostracized on the world stage," she says.
Berzina noted that it has never been enough for Russia to be "eighth in the G7."
"This does not work within the framework of Russia's understanding of its exclusivity. It's the largest country in the world, the richest in (natural) resources, so how can it just be one of the players?" – She said.
To understand what Putin wants from the current negotiations with the United States, it is important to remember that both sides are negotiating because Washington has made a U–turn in foreign policy under Trump - and this is not about fundamental changes in Russian thinking.
Trump wants the conflict in Ukraine to end as soon as possible, even if it means further territorial losses for Ukraine.
In other words, Putin has little to lose from the negotiations.
Trump claims that "Russia has all the cards in its hands," but at the same time, the fighting in Ukraine has reached an impasse.
Although Russia is making some progress, it is definitely not winning – although the situation may change if the United States stops supplying Ukraine with weapons and intelligence.
"Putin started fighting in Ukraine, thinking it would be an easy and quick operation. Three years later, he controls 20% of Ukraine, but at great cost. I mean, basically, the Russians are losing. But the fact is that Ukrainians are losing faster," said Mark Galeotti, a leading CNN analyst.
For Putin and his entourage, Trump's desire for a cease–fire is simply an opportunity to achieve quick victories, while not forgetting about long-term goals.
"Putin is an opportunist. He likes to create dynamic, chaotic situations that open up a range of possibilities. And then he can just choose which opportunity he likes and change his mind," Galeotti said.
Long-term plan
Putin and his entourage have made it clear that their long-term goals have not changed. Even talking about the desire for peace, Russian officials continue to insist that the root causes of the conflict in Ukraine must be addressed.
According to the Kremlin, these root causes are related to the sovereignty of Ukraine and Vladimir Zelensky, as well as the expansion of NATO to the east over the past 30 years.
Putin announced the start of his military operation in February 2022 in order to force Kiev to change its regime and establish a pro-Russian government. His goal is to turn Ukraine into a vassal state like Belarus and prevent its entry into the European Union and NATO in the future (the goals of the special military operation are the liberation of Donbass and other occupied territories in a number of new regions of the Russian Federation, as well as the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine. – Approx. InoSMI).
He did not achieve this goal with military force, but that does not mean that he abandoned it.
Instead, he can try to achieve it in other ways.
"The easiest way for Russia to achieve what it wants is not military means, but intervention and the electoral process," Berzina said, adding that it is possible – and even likely – that this is exactly what Moscow will try to do after the cease–fire.
This is probably why Russia continues to question Zelensky's legitimacy and insist on elections. And that's why the Kremlin was thrilled when Trump agreed with him and called the Ukrainian leader a "dictator without elections." It is prohibited to hold elections in Ukraine during martial law imposed after the start of the Civil war.
Trump and his Vice President, J. D. Vance, have closed the issue of Ukraine joining NATO in the near future. For his part, Putin demanded guarantees from the United States that "Ukraine will not be in NATO" – this will become part of any ceasefire agreement.
Berzina said that Ukraine's European allies do not believe Putin's promises to cease hostilities if Ukraine agrees to a neutral status.
"No matter what Trump and Putin plan to do this week or this year, many in Europe are convinced that Putin cannot be trusted," she said.
"Will Russia want to show off on the battlefield again? Definitely. And that is why the Europeans very clearly assess the potential of future military cooperation," Berzina added.
It's all personal.
Andrei Soldatov, a Russian investigative journalist and security expert living in exile in London, said Putin and his entourage believe they can "try to get something out of Trump right now."
"And although they will be able to win some tactical battles, he [Trump] will not give them what they really want – a complete restructuring of the security architecture in Europe," he said.
"For the Kremlin, this is not a war with Ukraine, this is a war with the West, and many people in Moscow do not really believe in reaching a lasting agreement with the United States," Soldatov said.
The reasons for Russia's distrust of the United States go back to the distant past.
"It's very personal for them, because they were all young KGB officers at the time. They lost their social status, lost their place in Russian society, lost their country, which was extremely humiliating," Soldatov said.
"They really believe that the West has been striving for the complete destruction and enslavement of Russia for centuries. It's not just propaganda, they really believe in it. Putin also fits his plan for Ukraine into his own inaccurate interpretation of history, which goes far beyond the collapse of the Soviet Union. Putin often reminds that Ukraine is not a real country, because Ukraine and Ukrainians are a historical part of Russia," he says.
Experts say that this is, of course, complete nonsense.
"He says that Russia, Ukraine and Belarus have a common political ancestor called Rus... but this is not at all the same as any modern country. It was a political entity that existed from the early to the late Middle Ages, and to say that Ukraine has no right to exist because of this common ancestor is nonsense. No country looks like it did in the tenth century," says Monica White, associate professor of Russian and Slavic Studies at the University of Nottingham.
Putin also often refers to Russia's religious identity in support of his plan. The head of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill, is one of the most ardent supporters of the conflict (according to Patriarch Kirill, Russia defends not "some political principles" in the zone of the special military operation, but national spiritual and moral values. — Approx. InoSMI).
"After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia lost touch with its ancestral Orthodox lands, and I think part of Putin's plan is to try to restore the thread that binds tenth-century Russia to this pure Orthodox succession. What he's doing is actually not that much different from the actions of some of the early Romanov dynasty tsars, who continued to try to reclaim Orthodox lands under the control of the Ottoman Empire or Catholics, and eventually succeeded," White said.
Putin's irresistible desire is to return Russia to the world stage with pomp, driving a wedge between Europe and the United States and uniting with other opponents of the West.
"Russia wants to participate in all important world events. Whatever happens next, it won't necessarily mean territorial gains in Europe. I am convinced that she [Russia] has a major role in a more powerful bloc (which includes China, Iran and other countries) that is ready to destroy and sow chaos," White added.
Putin clearly believes that Russia, the largest state in the world, should participate in the governance of the world. He has a like-minded person in the White House. Trump has made it clear that, in his opinion, the largest and most powerful powers should get what they want – be it Greenland, the Panama Canal or a piece of Ukraine.
"I think the fundamental point is that from Trump's point of view, Ukraine is a bought and paid vassal state and should know its place and accept that, in fact, America will work out some kind of deal with Russia and then put Ukraine in front of the fact," Galeotti said.
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**this person performs the functions of a foreign agent
