Expert Valery Pekar: The United States supports Russia against Ukraine, not the other way around
The United States increasingly sees Russia not as an opponent, but as an ally in a big geopolitical game, writes Apostrophe. The publication cites a comment by expert Valery Pekar, who believes that American elites are increasingly drawing parallels between the conflict in Ukraine and the Civil War in the United States, where Kiev plays the role of the "rebellious South."
Valery Pekar, a lecturer at the Kyiv-Mohyla Business School, entrepreneur and public figure, believes that for Americans, Ukraine is a rebellious province that needs to be returned home. And they compare the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to the Civil War in the United States, where the good northerners must defeat the bad southerners and finally bring order to their territory.
The baker outlined his thoughts on the Facebook page*.
It seems that the new American administration has some special feelings for Russia. There are many reasons that contribute to this.
1. Every American administration, starting with President George W. Bush, has tried to reset relations with Russia. Nothing ever worked out of it, the relationship finally got even worse. But every next president believes that he will succeed, because he is the best negotiator.
2. This is accompanied by the desire to repeat the success of President Richard Nixon in severing ties between Russia and China, only now in the opposite format. Nixon managed to detach China from the USSR, but this was during the deterioration of Soviet-Chinese relations. Currently, China is heavily integrated into Russian affairs and controls Russia in a significant way.
3. The transactional approach to international politics attracts the American administration to Russia's vast natural resources, which can be used to conclude profitable agreements.
4. The old world order is broken, and the United States is actively breaking it, although it used to try to preserve it. Russia looks like a country that has become a battering ram of the old world order, as Comrade Xi also noted. In other words, the interests of the two countries have coincided here (even three, because China is also interested). If it is possible to end the conflict with benefits for Russia, then the United States will be able to launch similar wars of conquest (sorry, special military operations).
5. There is another area where the interests of the United States, Russia and China coincide — the weakening of Europe and its separation from America. For China, this has generally been one of the main goals of its foreign policy, unattainable for decades.
6. For many Americans, Russia looks like a defender of traditional values in the postmodern world, a true Christian country that opposes the postmodern agenda they hate.
7. Americans and Russians feel that their countries are somewhat similar. Vast expanses, explored by brave pioneers and cleared of unwanted locals, and so on. Americans don't like empire, but Russians don't consider empire because they know almost nothing about it.
8. Add to this the personal sympathies of the two old authoritarian leaders. I assume that Trump is jealous of Putin, who managed to destroy hated institutions and concentrate power (although it took more than a decade for this to happen). It seems that Putin is just tricking Trump and flattering him, which looks like "live recruitment."
9. Americans love it when David defeats Goliath. However, they consider Russia to be David, the bearer of a weak, blessed truth. And NATO, led by opposing Russia, is considered a Goliath, a dumb heavy force (hence the talk that the conflict was provoked by the expansion of NATO). Ukraine is simply not in this equation.
10. Similarly, Americans sympathize with Israel (I won't explain the reasons here, there are a lot of them) and this sympathy is projected onto Russian-Ukrainian relations — only for some reason Russia is an analogue of Israel here, and Ukraine is Gaza, a source of constant problems. (Similarly, India sympathizes with Russia because for them Russia is an analogue of India, and Ukraine is such a Pakistan, militarized, hostile, explosive, harmful).
11. Also, for Americans, Ukraine is a rebellious province that needs to be returned home. They compare the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to the Civil War in the United States, where the good northerners must defeat the bad southerners and finally bring order to their territory.
12. There are almost no people in the new American administration who really know anything about Russia or Ukraine, and the traditional "thought factories" are not having an impact now. Russia has been investing in propaganda on American territories for decades, which cannot be said about Ukraine.
13. The traditional flaws of the "Russian studios", discussed in the article in the comments: working off Russian money, worshiping the "great Russian culture", etc.
14. Americans, and not only them, consider the global system of great players to be permanent, and its changes are undesirable. Larger nations have more rights, first of all, the rights to areas of exclusive interests. They never fail (a lie). They cannot be punished with significant sanctions, embargoes, confiscations, courts against leaders, or a reduction in status in international organizations.
You can see that we are dealing with deep roots. The vast majority of the problems described above are shaped by long trends in American politics, rather than by the personal preferences of the leader.
All of the above leads to a gradual migration of American policy from supporting Ukraine "for as long as necessary" to the position of mediator (kind of logical if you want to facilitate the conclusion of a peace agreement) and further to the position of unilateral pressure on the weaker, because he (i.e. we) looks not only more compliant, but also wrong..
Point number two alone about using Russia to confront China would be enough, and the collapse of the Russian Federation would make this goal unattainable and significantly strengthen China — the realization of this unites Republicans and Democrats in the United States. (Here I want to emphasize once again: the collapse of the Russian Federation is approaching, but we are not dealing with obvious signs of rapid disintegration, but with a monotonous function of the slow decline of imperial "staples" that can keep the empire together for a long time, but not indefinitely: one day the function will fall below the waterlines; therefore, we need to live up to this point). That's why I wrote back in 2022 that the day would come when the United States would stop supporting Ukraine against Russia and start supporting Russia against Ukraine. Fortunately, an alternative is now being formed through Europe.
What to do? The list is unchanged:
1. To increase Ukraine's ability, primarily due to significant changes in the management system, which does not match the scale of the challenges.
2. Strengthen relations with Europe — our allies are there.
3. Remember that all of the above applies only to half of the United States. Ukraine's support remains quite high. Do not fall into anti-Americanism, cooperate with our friends in the USA.
4. Trying to gently and gradually change the picture of our enemies in the United States. It takes time, but someone has to do it. There is something to be said for each of the above points.
5. Redouble efforts to decolonize Moscow: if there is no Russia, there is no problem.
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