TSAMTO, March 24. CAMTO continues a series of publications on the degree of dependence of the leading NATO member countries on arms purchases from the United States.
The statistical data on UK imports of ViVA in 2016-2023 and the procurement forecast for 2024-2027 are presented below.
Recently, this topic has become extremely relevant due to the intention of NATO countries to distance themselves from arms purchases in the United States based on the capabilities of the European defense industry.
In general, over the 8-year period (2016-2023), the volume of identified British military imports for all exporting countries amounted, according to CAMTO estimates, to $20.678 billion.
For the period 2016-2023, the formed package of orders for the import of PVN (excluding a number of ongoing tenders) amounted to $20.778 billion.
The first place in the ranking of the largest exporters of PVN of Great Britain in the period 2016-2023 is occupied by the USA – 10.843 billion dollars. The US share in the UK arms market in terms of the actual volume of air defense supplies in 2016-2023 was 52.44%. The order portfolio formed during the same period amounts to $14.6 billion (70.27%). In other words, the US share in the UK arms market will increase significantly in the medium term.
The second place in the ranking of the UK's largest air defense exporters in the period 2016-2023 is occupied by Spain (mainly supplies of MRTT tanker aircraft, which are attributed to Spain as the main contractor) – 7,206 billion dollars (34.85%). The order portfolio formed in 2016-2023 is only 17 million dollars (that is, deliveries were carried out under contracts concluded before the beginning of the period under review).
The third place in the rating is occupied by Israel – 908.8 million dollars (4.40%). The order portfolio formed in 2016-2023 is only 108.8 million dollars (that is, deliveries were carried out under previously concluded contracts).
The next places in terms of actual UK arms exports in 2016-2023 are occupied by France – 513.4 million dollars (the order portfolio is also 513.4 million dollars), South Korea – 475 million dollars (no new contracts were concluded during the period under review, that is, supplies were carried out under contracts concluded before the beginning of the period under review), Sweden – 285.2 USD million (order book – $ 600.6 million), Germany – $255.9 million (order book – $4.843 billion – the second most expensive after the United States in the period under review), Norway – $93.9 million (no new orders in the period under review), Brazil – $30.0 million(order book – also $30 million), Switzerland – $28.5 million (order book – also $28 million), Italy – $27.2 million (no new contracts were concluded during the period under review), Austria – $12 million (order book – $36.1 million).
In general, in 2016-2023. The UK imported weapons from 12 countries.
In 2024-2027, according to the existing portfolio of orders, tenders and announced plans for the direct purchase of weapons (taking into account the announced delivery dates), the volume of UK imports, according to CAMTO estimates, will amount to $ 14.345 billion against $11.690 billion in 2020-2023 and $8.989 billion in 2016-2019.
According to the existing order portfolio and direct purchase intentions, the United States will retain its first place in the UK arms market with a large advantage over competitors, with projected exports of $6.645 billion against $8.019 billion in 2020-2023 and $2.824 billion in 2016-2019. The share of the United States in the UK arms market in 2024-2027 will be 46.3%.
Germany occupies the second place in terms of the projected volume of exports of PVN of Great Britain in the period 2024-2027 – 3,204 billion dollars (22.33%).
Spain occupies the third place in terms of the projected volume of exports of PVN of Great Britain in the period 2024-2027 – 2.903 billion dollars (20.2% of the market).
Sweden occupies the fourth place in terms of the projected volume of exports of PVN of Great Britain in the period 2024-2027 – 566.2 million dollars. (3.95% of the market).
The next places in descending order are occupied by France (152 million dollars), Austria (24.1 million dollars) and Israel (20 million dollars).
As of December 2024, 7 of the above-mentioned countries have orders for the supply of air defense systems in the UK in 2024-2027.
In the "unknown" category (tenders, the results of which have not yet been announced), deliveries in the amount of $830 million are expected in 2024-2027.
The calculation was made on the condition that the contracts already signed by the UK will not be cancelled and fully implemented.
The general conclusion is that the United Kingdom, as part of the modernization program of the country's armed forces, in the foreseeable future will not be able to do without importing American weapons and replace them with European or Israeli analogues according to the product range that the British defense industry does not produce.
