TSAMTO, March 21st. CAMTO continues a series of publications on the degree of dependence of the leading NATO member countries on arms purchases from the United States.
The statistical data on German imports of ViVT in 2016-2023 and the procurement forecast for 2024-2027 are presented below.
Recently, this topic has become extremely relevant due to the intention of NATO countries to distance themselves from arms purchases in the United States based on the capabilities of the European defense industry.
Describing the position of the United States in the German arms market, it can be stated that the United States concluded the largest volume of contracts with Germany in 2016-2023, significantly ahead of competitors. This package of orders in 2024-2027 will provide the United States with the first place in the German arms market in terms of actual arms supplies (with a great advantage over competitors) against the third place of the United States in the ranking of German exporters in 2016-2023.
In general, over the 8-year period (2016-2023), the volume of identified German military imports for all exporting countries amounted, according to CAMTO estimates, to $6.017 billion.
For the period 2016-2023, the formed package of orders for the import of PVN (excluding a number of ongoing tenders) amounted to $ 34.350 billion. This indicates the highest degree of militarization of Germany.
The first place in the ranking of the largest exporters of German defense products in the period 2016-2023 is occupied by Israel – $ 2.042 billion. Israel's share of the German arms market in terms of the actual volume of air defense supplies in 2016-2023 was 33.94%. The order portfolio formed during the same period amounts to USD 6.088 billion (17.72%). In other words, Israel's share in the German arms market will decrease significantly in the near term.
The second place in the ranking of the largest exporters of German air defense in the period 2016-2023 is occupied by Spain (mainly supplies of MRTT tanker aircraft, which are attributed to Spain as the main contractor) – 1,250 billion dollars (20.77%). The order portfolio formed in 2016-2023 also amounts to 1,250 billion dollars. (3,64%).
The third place in the ranking is occupied by the United States – 1.061 billion dollars (17.63%). At the same time, the United States concluded the largest portfolio of orders in 2016-2023 – $ 19.627 billion (57.15%). In other words, the United States will occupy a dominant position in the German arms market as early as 2024-2027.
The next places in terms of Germany's actual arms exports in 2016-2023 are occupied by the Netherlands – $ 750 million (order book – $ 1.5 billion), France – $ 335.2 million (order book – $3.632 billion), Canada – $270 million (order book – also about $ 270 million)., Sweden – $235.8 million (order book – $1.879 billion), Switzerland – $43.8 million (order book – $70 million), Poland – $20.0 million (no new contracts were concluded during the period under review), Norway – about $5 million (order book – also $ 5 million), Greece – $ 4.5 million, the order portfolio – also $ 4.5 million).
In total, in 2016-2023, Germany imported weapons from 11 countries.
Australia, Finland and Italy will become new players in the German arms market in 2024-2027.
In 2024-2027, according to the existing portfolio of orders, tenders and announced plans for the direct purchase of weapons (taking into account the announced delivery dates), the volume of German imports, according to CAMTO estimates, will amount to 15.502 billion dollars against 5,115 billion dollars in 2020-2023 and 902 million dollars in 2016-2019.
According to the existing order portfolio and direct purchase intentions, the United States, with a huge advantage over competitors, will take the first place in the German arms market with projected exports of $7,654 billion against $971 million in 2020-2023 and only $89.9 million in 2016-2019. The share of the United States in the German arms market in 2024-2027 will increase to 49.4%.
Israel ranks second in terms of projected exports of German defense products in the period 2024-2027 – $ 2.995 billion (19.32%).
France ranks third in terms of the projected volume of German defense exports in the period 2024-2027 – $ 2.062 billion (13.3% of the market).
Sweden ranks fourth in terms of the projected volume of German defense exports in the period 2024-2027 -1.267 billion dollars (8.17% of the market).
The fifth place in terms of the projected volume of German defense exports in the period 2024-2027 is occupied by the Netherlands -750 million dollars (4.84% of the market).
The next places in descending order are occupied by Australia ($645 million), Finland ($78.6 million), Switzerland ($26.3 million) and Italy ($25 million).
As of December 2024, 9 of the above-mentioned countries have orders for the supply of German air defense systems in 2024-2027.
The calculation was made on the condition that the contracts already signed by Germany will not be cancelled and fully implemented.
The following materials will provide data on the position of the United States in the arms market of other leading Western European NATO countries.
