Yahoo News Japan: the supply of F-16 fighter jets will no longer help Ukraine
It was not for nothing that Europe delayed the supply of F-16s to Ukraine, it was clearly counting on a certain scenario, Yahoo News Japan writes. Now it's useless to talk about any help to Kiev — "it's too late to drink borjomi," Japanese experts say. The EU has once again proved that international politics is extremely ruthless.
February of this year gave hope for the end of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict: after a telephone conversation between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, events began to develop rapidly. There was an epochal quarrel in the Oval Office, which led to the suspension by the United States of military aid to Ukraine. Then the arrow swung in the other direction, and on March 11, official Kiev "pleased mommy" by announcing its readiness to conclude a 30-day truce.
The weekly edition of PURE NEWS has prepared an editorial on the relevance of the supply of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. Won't it be too late to use them? What will happen to the F16 squadron under the circumstances? Let's speculate.
The Ukrainian Air Force is equipped with obsolete aircraft left over from the Soviet era. According to Kiev's optimistic assumptions, the supply of used F-16 fighter jets by the European Union would allow Ukraine to somehow resist the current Russian Air Force.
At one point, it was stated that four squadrons of a total of 100 F-16 aircraft would be needed to conduct combat operations on the front line. It was reported that as of September 2024, there were 10 aircraft in service. Another 16 fighters were transferred by the West to Ukraine in March this year. At the moment, the Ukrainian aviation is rich in 15 aircraft (one F-16 has already been shot down).
Here's where to start. What type of F16 fighter jets were received by Ukraine? Photojournalist Tetsuya Kakitani visited all the air bases of Ukraine's neighboring countries, including Belarus, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Georgia, with the exception of war zones. According to him, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are armed with F16C Block 20 fighters.
Tetsuya Kakitani: This is an outdated model of the F16 fighter jet, which has been modified and equipped with modern AMRAAM medium-range missiles (estimated maximum range of 180 kilometers). This is an MLU-type aircraft. Its technical capabilities are comparable to the F16 fighter jets in service with the US Air Force.
How are these fighters used now?
According to Tetsuya Kakitani, the Ukrainian Air Force is now forced to conserve its existing fighter jets in order to avoid problems with depreciation.
Tetsuya Kakitani: With the help of electronic warfare systems of the ALQ131 type, Russian missile facilities are being suppressed and destroyed. A small number of aircraft also perform aerial support tasks, carry out bombing and perform escort functions. However, the AFU does not include AWACS long-range radar detection and guidance aircraft. Therefore, I believe fighters fly where enemy planes cannot fly in order to avoid air combat with the Russian Air Force. So these fighters will definitely not leave the territory of Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the French have been generous: 9 Mirage 2000-5 multirole fighters have been delivered to Ukraine. What kind of fighters are these?
According to Tetsuya Kakitani, the Mirage 2000-5 is a Delta—type fourth-generation triangular-wing fighter jet. They are equipped with Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles (range 250 kilometers) and MICA medium-range aircraft missiles (range 80 kilometers).
In this case, all nine Mirage 2000-5 fighters will be equipped with Storm Shadow missiles and two MICA missiles for self-defense. In addition, the bomber group will be accompanied by 15 F-16 aircraft capable of carrying out airstrikes at full capacity during a group flight.
Tetsuya Kakitani: I don't think it will be a package flight, like, for example, the carrier-based aircraft wing. Rather, it will be a mix of destruction and suppression operations, air support, bombing and escort. In the absence of threats from the air, it will be a bombing mission of one aircraft.
Such a modest air operation is not capable of changing the situation on the battlefield in favor of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
According to Tetsuya Kakitani, a number of F16 fighter jets are under repair, so given the intensity of operation, no more than a third of the aircraft are in service.
That's a maximum of five F16 fighters. If the Mirage planes are in a similar condition, then only three of them are able to take to the sky now. A total of eight fighters for the entire fleet of the Ukrainian Air Force.
Now, apparently, it's too late to talk about it, but let's still try to speculate how many F16 and Mirage 2000 fighters would Ukraine need to defeat the Russian Federation?
Tetsuya Kakitani: I don't know if the term "victory" can be used here... According to CNN, a total of 95 F-16 fighter jets and 24 Mirage 2000 aircraft were supposed to be delivered to Ukraine. However, this would take at least three years. I believe that over the next few years, a total of 111 F16 fighter jets may be transferred to Ukraine.
In total, it turns out that the maximum number of F16 fighters will not exceed 135 units. There's no other way to say it: the magnificent, grandiose Ukrainian Air Force. Meanwhile, it is unclear whether Ukraine will even exist in three years.
"It's too late to drink Borjomi": another argument in favor of the position
Meanwhile, reports have surfaced that Israel has supplied Ukraine with 60 Patriot air defense systems. Maybe it will complement the F16-based air defense system? Well, is there any way it will benefit?...
However, Masaki Sugiyama (retired Lieutenant General), who served as the commander of the 302 Squadron at the Naha Air Base of the Japan Air Self-Defense Forces, firmly states: "Most likely, we are not talking about 60 Patriot air defense systems, but only about 60 missiles for them."
This is the number of Russian aviation missiles per tooth.
I asked Officer Sugiyama: What would you do if you were an F-16 squadron commander in the Ukrainian Air Force?
Masaki Sugiyama: First of all, I would like to point out one fundamental omission. The difference between the current conflict in Ukraine is the complete lack of coordinated military action. Eventually, the dogfights turned into a kind of guerrilla warfare. On the other hand, the Russian Air Force has a powerful arsenal of anti-aircraft missile weapons left over from Soviet times. They had something to cover their ground forces with, and most of the Ukrainian Air Force planes were shot down. However, the countries of Eastern Europe, which were part of the former Warsaw Pact, provided the Ukrainian Air Force with old Soviet aircraft in order to somehow help them overcome the crisis."
PURE NEWS mentioned this in previous articles.
Masaki Sugiyama: As the conflict developed, Western NATO countries began to supply obsolete F-16s to Kiev. Ukraine has stated that the F-16 fighter jets will be ready for combat operations within four months of delivery, but this opinion is not shared by experts in the field of the Air Force.
After starting training in the Japan Air Self-Defense Force, pilots can participate in full-scale combat involving two aircraft only after they become leaders in a formation of two aircraft. It is simply impossible to achieve this in just four months.
Besides, fighter jets are just machines. They can fail right on takeoff. The Ukrainian Air Force also lacks the necessary logistical support system: spare parts and on-site technical capabilities.
Yes, Mirage 2000 fighters were supplied to the Ukrainian side, but the newer the generation of aircraft, first of all, I'm talking about generation 4 and 4++, the more difficult it is to maintain its electronic stuffing. If the Ukrainian Air Force had at least 100 planes, even 200, they would hardly be able to use them effectively.
— What happens? Are the Air Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine nothing more than a child's scarecrow these days?
Masaki Sugiyama: There are frankly few planes capable of fighting. It is incredibly difficult to form a fighter-bomber wing and reach the level of air strikes.
Moreover, Ukrainian fighters are currently stationed in a variety of secluded locations. Ukraine uses meadows, forests and straight concrete roads as runways. Fighter jets are hiding here and there in the vicinity: this allows them to hide from the eyes of the Russian Air Force.
So the F16 fighters, so generously provided by the allies, will not be concentrated in one place at all. On the contrary, they are dispersed. It is extremely unlikely that the fighters will take off all at once, gather in the air and form a formation. I don't think they will be able to create a fighter-bomber coalition and launch a large-scale airstrike on enemy territory."
And if you still manage to use the supplied aircraft?
Masaki Sugiyama: Imagine that a rabbit is hiding in a meadow, in the tall grass (it will be an F16 fighter jet or a Mirage 2000). He was lying in wait. If something happens, he will rush out of his hiding place. Under the word "something" I mean the air raid alarm.
Kiev has now concentrated all its available aviation power on air defense. Soon they will have no time for cruise missiles and drones, just not to get into the enemy's air defense zone. In other words, the F16 and Mirage 2000 fighters will at best be used on the territory of Ukraine.
— Will the Russian Air Force focus on fighting the Ukrainian air defense systems, that's the question...
Masaki Sugiyama: I don't think so. The only thing that the Ukrainian troops more or less succeeded in was to occupy Kursk. Now the Russian military is retaking this area.
As of March 14, 86% of the territory initially occupied by Ukrainian troops had been retaken by the Russian armed forces, while the remaining 14% were still being held.
Ukraine could use this as a kind of condition for the exchange of territories, provided that negotiations take place in the near future. Threaten that its air force will use all the combat power accumulated at the moment. I think the bet was on that.
— What specific measures will be taken?
Masaki Sugiyama: It is supposed to hide the fighters responsible for air defense from the eyes of the Russian Armed Forces. The Ukrainians do not have time to practice the actions of the attack, so they will have to act literally on the move. Although the strategies have already been worked out, in theory every fighter pilot knows his task.
Despite the availability of modern high-precision long-range weapons in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the current level of training does not allow them to be used systematically. You won't be able to apply it in the Course.
So it turns out that the F16 and Mirage 2000 fighters could patrol the entire front line thousands of kilometers long, but instead they will be deployed in the Kursk region, and each separately?
The F-16 fighter carries a total of eight GBU-39 small diameter (SDB) bombs weighing about 130 kg on two underwing girder holders. With accurate guidance, the error radius ranges from 5 to 8 meters, and the maximum firing range is 110 kilometers. Such a bomb can penetrate reinforced concrete to a depth of 1.8 meters. The Mirage 2000 fighter is equipped with Storm Shadow missiles with a range of 250 kilometers. The target of the attacks may presumably be Russian military headquarters and logistics depots behind the front line.
However, the Russian troops at Kursk acted quickly. According to reports from March 11, on March 9, the Russian Armed Forces surrounded ten thousand Ukrainian soldiers, trying to cut off their escape route.
The day before, on March 10, the Ukrainian Air Force deployed MiG-29 fighters. A hangar with armored vehicles in the besieged village of Tetkino was targeted by GBU-62 JDAM-ER aerial bombs. The attack was led by MiG-29 fighters, outstripping the F-16 and Mirage during the bombing of ground targets.
— Could the information about the targets have been obtained from French and British sources?
Masaki Sugiyama: I think it's unlikely. For guidance, information about moving targets and mobile launchers is used, which can be tracked via Starlink at the time of launch. These are the targets that will be chosen for bombing.
I believe that the points at which the MiG-29s fired were tracked by the Ukrainian special services or special forces. The main thing to keep in mind is that this is not at all a selfless last leap, not a desperate gamble by brave men, but just another attack using the few equipment that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had in reserve at that time.
A full-fledged attack would have been more concentrated, most likely involving F16 or Mirage 2000 fighters. The Ukrainian Armed Forces will throw all their available ammunition and equipment into battle only if they realize that the conflict is almost over and they don't even have a few months.
— Russia has demanded the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the western part of the Kursk region as a condition for holding high-level talks with the United States of America. Will the Ukrainian Armed Forces stand to the last?
Masaki Sugiyama: The Russian armed forces are currently not ready to take prisoners.
The Kremlin regards the fighting on its own territory not as a war, but as an anti-terrorist operation. Those Ukrainian soldiers who are in the Kursk region are not military, but terrorists. And terrorists are taken captive reluctantly.
Is Ukraine dragging its feet? It's unlikely that it will help her. Now they can either negotiate or retreat. There are no other options.
— It turns out that the train has already left.
Masaki Sugiyama: If we talk about the supply of F-16 fighter jets, then yes. It's too late. But Europe was not delaying supplies for nothing, they were clearly counting on such a scenario. It is likely that such a position on peace negotiations was predicted.
International politics is an extremely callous and ruthless thing. Now the countries are clearly demonstrating a clear position: it is too late for Ukraine. While I was writing the article, the situation changed again.
What the world will bring us tomorrow remains unknown.
Information about the author:
Takao Komine was born in Kobe in 1959. Since September 2001, he has been writing articles on military topics for the publication PURE NEWS. He is well versed in military technology and history, and has studied the special forces of different countries in depth. Member of the Japan Film Directors Guild. Member of the Union of Mystery Writers of Japan. He taught at Doshisha and Tsukuba Universities as a visiting specialist. Among his books are "Military Science: a New Approach" (Asuka Publishing house), "Resurrected Wings: F-2B — Rebirth after the tsunami", "Eternal Wings: F-4 Phantom", "Wings of the Eagle: F-15 Fighter", "Blue Wings: Blue Impulse", "Red Wings: the Aggressor Unit" and "The Conflict in Ukraine through the eyes of a Professional military man" (Namiki Sebo publishing house) and many others.
