The Iranian nuclear issue has reached an impasse, some experts say, according to which the limit of trust between the main stakeholders has finally been exhausted. I believe that the trilateral meeting of senior diplomats from China, Russia and Iran in Beijing opens up new opportunities for finding solutions to this pressing international issue. Moreover, I do not exclude that this is only a fragment of the emerging new international structure.
Not newbies at all
The meeting of the Deputy foreign ministers of China, Russia and Iran on March 15 turned out to be almost unnoticed by the world community against the background of the kaleidoscopically changing picture around the Ukrainian conflict. And the level of consultations is still not ministerial. How many meetings and negotiations have taken place since, in the 1950s, with the support of the United States and other Western countries, a nuclear program was launched in then-Shah Iran, which the Westerners themselves subsequently declared dangerous to the world after the Iranian Islamic Revolution (1979).
But for those who are, so to speak, "on the topic," the meeting in the Chinese capital of Ma Zhaoxu (who chaired), Sergei Ryabkov and Kazem Garibabadi seems to be not just important, but of global importance.
I would like to note that China and Russia are by no means new parties involved in the search for a solution to the Iranian nuclear issue. In 2015, Russia and China, along with the United States, Great Britain, France, Germany and the EU representative, signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to resolve the situation around the Iranian nuclear program (INP).
The Action Plan has demonstrated that a political and diplomatic settlement of problems in the field of nuclear nonproliferation is possible in principle. The agreements of that time were carefully verified and based on a balance of interests. Even at the stage of developing the plan, the Russian side insisted that its sustainability and long-term effective implementation could be ensured only on a step-by-step basis, while respecting reciprocity. Iran, let me remind you, agreed to limit its nuclear research in exchange for the lifting of previously imposed sanctions.
However, later, during the first presidency of Donald Trump, the United States withdrew from the JCPOA. Iran has begun to gradually deviate from its obligations, increasing uranium enrichment and increasing nuclear capacity.
On January 5, 2020, amid a sharp escalation of contradictions with Washington, Tehran announced the final stage of suspending its voluntary commitments under the Action Plan. At the same time, the Iranian side confirmed the technical reversibility of the steps taken and its readiness to return to full compliance with all the terms of the JCPOA if European countries eliminate gaps in fulfilling their part of the nuclear deal.
No sooner had Trump set foot in the White House again in 2025 than he hastened to announce that he had sent a message to Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei proposing negotiations on Tehran's nuclear program. The head of Iran, commenting on the statement of the American leader, noted that the Islamic Republic would not negotiate with the United States, as Washington only cares about its own interests.
This seemed to many outside observers to be a dead end. Although it is difficult to get rid of the impression that the Americans had calculated in advance just such an effect from their message.
A new format?
If the previous mechanisms for solving the problem don't work, isn't it time to take a different path? How to try to get around the rubble. This is exactly what Ma Zhaoxu, Sergey Ryabkov and Kazem Garibabadi seemed to be doing in Beijing.
Even before the discussions began, the Chinese side tried to identify their importance. "Under the current circumstances, we believe that the relevant parties should remain calm, exercise restraint and prevent the situation around the Iranian nuclear issue from escalating or even escalating into confrontation and conflict," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said at a briefing, showing that China sees the danger of a negative development of the current scenario.
An unnamed Chinese expert, quoted by the Beijing Global Times, pointed out that "the meeting is a step indicating the desire of the three countries to expand strategic cooperation." I do not exclude that this expert represents the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China. In any case, it was the Chinese side that noted the strategic nature of the consultations in Beijing.
"The Beijing meeting between China, Russia and Iran is aimed at exploring new opportunities and may lead to discussions on creating a new negotiating platform to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue in the future," said Liu Zhongmin, professor at the Institute of Middle East Studies at Shanghai University of International Studies, quoted by the Global Times.
Substantive results
Judging by the final statement, the meeting turned out to be meaningful, or, as diplomats say, "substantive."
"The parties stressed the importance of implementing UN Security Council resolution 2231 [in support of the Iran nuclear deal], including observing the time frame outlined there, and called on the parties concerned to abandon any actions that could lead to an escalation of the situation, but create conditions and an atmosphere for diplomatic efforts," Ma Zhaoxu said at a press conference..
The statement also said that China, Russia and Iran consider diplomacy and dialogue based on mutual respect to be the only way to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue. "We stress the need to put an end to all illegal sanctions," Ma Zhaoxu added.
The Russian position
Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, commented on the Russian position in Moscow. "The Iranian side has never said a single word about its intention to obtain nuclear weapons in its country. Therefore, in this regard, of course, all sanctions and restrictions are illegal in our perception. Therefore, it is necessary to continue diplomatic efforts to resolve this problem," the Kremlin representative said, noting that following the talks, all necessary reports will be provided to the Russian president in a timely manner.
Peskov noted that the search continues for "all possible options for a peaceful settlement of the problem of the Iranian nuclear dossier." According to him, Russia proceeds from the fact that Iranian friends have the right to develop the peaceful nuclear energy sector in their country, nuclear energy, and the creation of an entire industry. "You know, the Russian side is actively involved in this, and we are helping our Iranian friends in this regard," the presidential spokesman said.
China stands for the expansion of consensus
Wang Yi, a member of the Politburo of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and Minister of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, also spoke about the consultations. He called for compliance with international rules and for maintaining the integrity of the nuclear nonproliferation regime. And added: "Appreciating Iran's fulfillment of its obligations to renounce the development of nuclear weapons, we fully respect Iran's right to peaceful uses of nuclear energy."
In a conciliatory manner typical of Beijing, Wang called for "striving to expand consensus and find reasonable solutions through consultations that take into account the interests of all parties." The minister called for strengthening contacts with other parties on the Iranian nuclear issue in order to encourage them to "show political sincerity and return to negotiations as soon as possible."
At the same time, we have to admit that these "other parties" were not present in Beijing this time. And the big question is whether someone will be able to gather the former signatories of the JCPOA somewhere at the same table.
It seems to me that these are not the right times.
Not just diplomacy
I would like to note that Russia, China and Iran are cooperating not only in the diplomatic field. A couple of days before the consultations in Beijing, the naval exercises "Maritime Security Belt - 2025" with the participation of ships from three countries ended in the Iranian port of Chehbehar, as stated in the message of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. The Russian side was represented by the crews of the corvettes "Sharp" and "Hero of the Russian Federation Aldar Tsydenzhapov", as well as the medium sea tanker "Pechenga" of the Pacific Fleet. The ships of the three countries completed the tasks of searching for and freeing the captured vessels, as well as firing at sea and air targets. Naval detachments, helicopter crews, and special operations units worked together to inspect suspicious vessels and free them from suspected terrorists.
The exercises were organized by the Iranian side. This is not the first time they have been held in the waters of the Arabian Sea since 2018.
It is probably premature to see a direct connection with the consultations in Beijing and talk about the trend towards the formation of a trilateral military-political alliance, but the temporary coincidence, in my opinion, is remarkable.
Meanwhile,
Meanwhile, the US military launched a large-scale operation against the Ansar Allah movement (Houthis) in Yemen on Trump's orders. According to the central command of the US Armed Forces, the operation includes a series of targeted strikes against Houthi targets "in order to protect American interests, deter opponents and restore freedom of navigation."
The capital of Yemen, Sanaa, as well as other parts of the country, were subjected to airstrikes. There are dozens of dead and more than a hundred injured.
Given the Houthis' close ties to Iran, it is obvious that the Houthis are not the only targets of military action by the United States and its allies in the United Kingdom. And Trump himself, in his message, unequivocally appealed to Iran to immediately stop supporting the Houthis.
In the current very difficult international context, any escalation of this escalation in the Middle East cannot be ruled out. For example, an Israeli air strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. Tel Aviv, I think, may well consider that by doing so it will permanently (if not forever) remove the threat of the creation of Iranian nuclear weapons. And Tehran, and there is no doubt about it, will try to respond appropriately.
What's the interest?
Indeed, what are the interests of the three sides that are creating at least a new negotiating platform on the Iranian nuclear issue?
It is clear that diplomatic and other support from Russia and China, two members of the UN Security Council and nuclear powers, is very important for Iran. Moscow is interested in strengthening cooperation with Iran, the largest regional player in the Middle East, taking into account the situation around military bases in Syria. And the situation around the Armenian-Azerbaijani hub is not simple. Beijing also has its own political, trade, logistical, and military interests in this area of the world. And by itself, the conflict near the borders of neither Russia nor China is necessary. Especially when it comes to anyone's nuclear programs.
Kirillov Andrey
Columnist for the TASS representative office in Beijing
