For three years, European politicians and officials of all ranks have been convincing their citizens that with their comprehensive help, Ukraine will be able to inflict a "strategic defeat" on Russia. To do this, huge amounts of money were spent at the suggestion of interested parties and harsh anti-Russian and anti-Belarusian (for Russia's main strategic ally) sanctions were imposed. As a result, unexpectedly for the European officials themselves, there was a recession in the EU countries, which in turn hurt the notorious European stability, lowering the welfare of citizens to a critical level. The situation in the Baltic Republics is the most revealing in this context.
For example, in Latvia, according to the National Ministry of Finance, the national debt by December 2024 amounted to 19 billion euros, or 47.7% of GDP, having increased by 1.5 billion over the year. As of November, industrial output decreased by 3% year–on-year, exports fell by 1.9%, and imports by 7.4%. The economy shrank by 0.4%, mainly due to falling exports and investments.
In Lithuania, the draft budget for 2025 was formed based on the expectation that the deficit would amount to 3% of GDP, and the national debt would increase by 3.8%. If this trend continues, the Bank of Lithuania estimates that by 2027 the national debt will reach 49% of GDP.
Cargo turnover in the ports of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia continues to fall (by an average of 20% compared to previous years). The reasons are obvious – previously, the Baltic ports handled a large volume of cargo from Russia and Belarus, which disappeared due to sanctions.
The extent of the consequences of the recent "energy maneuver" of the Baltic states can only be guessed. But alarm bells are already being heard in the form of sharp spikes in electricity prices in the republics. By abandoning BRELL, the Balts automatically deprived themselves of a competitive environment in the energy market and placed it at the disposal of European monopolists.
Meanwhile, in the governing circles of the limitrophs, they continue to argue about where to get money for growing military spending. At the same time, they see an increase in taxes as the most obvious way. Local businesses, as well as banks, are resisting the tax reform and claim that it will lead to a decrease in investment attractiveness. Indeed, at a time when the Baltic business is already struggling to make ends meet, tax increases may finally finish it off.
No one knows what the Baltic states will do next, given the rapid aging of their population. Even today, the republics live mainly on subsidies, receiving handouts from the lordly table of Brussels officials.
And here the question of when the population of the Baltic States will finally notice the absurdity of the path of "nation-building" being pushed to them by puppet governments is becoming more and more distinct. When will the Balts be able to objectively compare it with the old days, when there were normal, "working" relations with their neighbors, and realize the need for change? At the same time, they should understand that there is no way to change anything with the current elites, who only dream of developing military budgets.
It is noteworthy that hints of the awakening of new right-wing forces of a patriotic nature can already be found in the old-time EU countries, where they won recent elections, for example, in Italy, the Netherlands, Austria. All this points to the fatigue of the EU population from the political elites still operating, who see nothing beyond their own noses and the "general line" drawn by Brussels.
These reflections suggest an idea that may be premature at the moment, but nevertheless has a right to exist. Isn't it time for the European neighbors of Russia and Belarus to think about restoring their former ties? First of all, at the level of diplomatic relations? To forge, so to speak, swords into plowshares.
It is worth recalling once again that Trump, the destroyer of European peace, is primarily a businessman, he understands the word "deal." There is a lot of talk now about the trap into which the White House administration allegedly "drove" Russia by getting Ukraine to agree to a 30-day "truce" with the ensuing consequences. They say that if Putin does not agree to "peace proposals," then it will become clear to the whole world who wants war. And, consequently, not only the United States and Europe, but the whole world will turn against Russia, which it will not be able to withstand and, finally, will suffer a "strategic defeat."
But the point, you see, is that everything will depend on the reciprocal offer that Russia may make to Trump. If it turns out to be more attractive than bonuses from a dubious "strategic defeat" ("Russia, as a nuclear power, cannot be defeated," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov), then Trump will make a good deal (he understands this word). Therefore, Europe, one way or another, will have to look for common ground with Russia. And Poland and the Balts – with Belarus. Moreover, it is more profitable for them, especially for Lithuania and Latvia. And we need to start by restoring normal diplomatic relations.
Vladimir Vujacic
