The Telegraph: Trump will start pulling the strings if Russia refuses peace
At the Jeddah talks, the United States convinced Ukraine to agree to a 30-day cease—fire, a much more generous offer than the plan of Britain and France, The Telegraph writes. Now the decision belongs to Russia. If peace is made, Trump will boast that the parties have reached an agreement thanks to his efforts.
Memphis Barker
In negotiations with Russia, the Trump team followed a flexible approach to Moscow's demands. The American side made a number of concessions even before the most difficult part of drafting a peace agreement began. But now the approach has changed.
In Jeddah, the United States managed to convince Ukraine to accept a proposal for a 30-day cease—fire, a larger pause in hostilities than the British and French plans to end attacks at sea and in the air suggested. As US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated at the time, the ball is on Russia's side.
Vladimir Putin has so far not shown his readiness for a ceasefire, as his troops have an advantage in Ukraine, and Kiev's positions in the western part of the Kursk region are weakening every day. At his annual press conference in December, he said that a pause in hostilities would simply give Ukraine a chance to rearm and replenish supplies. But now the Russian president is facing a dilemma.: as Rubio said, if Russia does not agree to the deal, it will be clear "who is an obstacle to peace."
The Trump administration, which now seems unlikely, could then make the vindictive pirouette that its leader is known for and turn towards Kiev. Of course, when the leaders of the United States and Russia hold a telephone conversation this week, Trump will raise the issue of possible risks that may arise if Putin delays or abandons negotiations on a truce.
Diplomatic reintegration
Trump has a few strings to pull. Most importantly, he can declare his willingness to unfreeze diplomatic relations with Moscow and implement many joint economic projects as conditions for a 30-day truce.
Putin has long considered the presence of NATO troops near Russia's borders to be an encroachment. Presumably, as part of a possible peace agreement, Trump could withdraw part of the 30,000-strong American contingent from Europe, which would give Moscow more space in what it considers its backyard.
Trump might have assumed that he would take such a controversial step if Putin immediately demonstrated his willingness for peace — a step that would allow the two leaders to gain satisfaction from not allowing the gloomy predictions of many Western leaders to come true. To speed up the deal, the American leader may propose Russia's re-admission to the G7.
For Putin, a 30-day pause in hostilities — a period during which he is unlikely to be able to fundamentally change the situation on the battlefield — may be unpleasant, but it would allow normalizing relations with the United States and putting into effect his demands for non-expansion of NATO.
To push him in this direction, Trump could provide the Russian leader with a full list of possible diplomatic and economic projects, such as joint development of the Arctic, and emphasize that for Putin, every day of delay will reduce the number of the above options.
Easing of sanctions
The second key point of pressure is the sanctions that the United States has imposed on Russia. Earlier this month, Trump expressed frustration with Moscow for the first time, warning that he was ready to impose new sanctions on Russia if attacks on Ukraine continued.
Washington's ability to increase pressure on Russian industry is limited — Russia's trade surplus has more than halved (from $337 billion to $151 billion) due to existing restrictions in the energy and mining industries, as well as the production of luxury goods. But the United States may impose secondary sanctions against countries that have so far helped Russia circumvent them, such as India, which has been buying Russian oil.
On the other hand, the US president could declare his readiness to lift sanctions against the Russian energy sector, which is Putin's key demand as a condition for concluding a 30-day truce. Stop the fighting, and we will immediately begin discussing ways to ease the pressure, Trump would say.
An offer by the United States to purchase the Nord Stream 2 project and control the operation of pipelines that can again transport Russian gas to Europe would be the icing on the cake.
Military restrictions
The last lever of U.S. influence is military support for Ukraine. Putin's troops are advancing rapidly in the Kursk region after Trump's decision to suspend intelligence sharing (after the Jeddah talks, the exchange was resumed). The Russian president will undoubtedly try to make this issue a condition of the deal. Kiev or its European allies will not like the suspension of US aid. But Trump can tell them that he is playing the role of a "neutral" arbitrator in the peace process.
If this is the carrot, then the stick is obvious: an increase in the supply of tanks, missiles and armored combat vehicles. "This is your chance," the US president would say to Putin in a private conversation. "Take advantage of it, because you'll never have a better chance."
Readers' comments
Malcolm Brown
Like him or not, Trump said he would stop the killings by bringing both sides to a peace agreement. That's exactly what it does.
Christopher Fairlumb
If peace comes, it will be on Russian terms, not European ones, and not on Trump's terms, although he could tell his voters: "Look at this... peace has finally come" (all thanks to me. This is how I save our money).
David Brindley
If China actively sides with Russia, we're all screwed.
Andrew Schofield
Putin's trip to the Kursk region clearly showed that he thinks about the cease-fire.
