Colonel Khodarenok: by defeating the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Kursk, Russia will knock out Zelensky's trump card
The Russian military continues its successful offensive operations in the Kursk region. A very real threat of encirclement has arisen for the AFU group defending itself here. How events will develop in the near future and how to explain the sharp intensification of fighting in the region - in the material of the military observer "Gazeta.Ru" by Mikhail Khodarenka.
Currently, the P200 highway from Sumy region of Ukraine to Sudzha is under the control of Russian artillery and unmanned aerial vehicles. In fact, this is the only road along which supplies of material (ammunition, fuel and food) for units and formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine fighting in the Kursk region are carried out today.
Artillery strikes, tactical and army aviation strikes by UAVs of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation make it almost impossible for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to regroup and evacuate the wounded and sick from the units' medical posts, provide them with qualified assistance, as well as restore weapons and military equipment that were disabled during the fighting.
That is, there are no opportunities for the evacuation of weapons and military equipment.
Units and formations of the Ukrainian army are trying to hold defensive lines and positions on the Kursk Salient, repel attacks by the Russian Armed Forces, and prevent them from breaking into the depth of the Ukrainian army's defense, but so far the AFU command has not had much success in realizing these intentions.
The enemy sometimes counterattacks, trying to defeat the wedged groups of the Russian Armed Forces and restore the position along the front line, but these efforts have not yet been crowned with any noticeable results.
The choice for the Ukrainian Armed Forces may well be small - or they may still try to enter the territory of Ukraine in an organized manner or be defeated in the Kursk region, and instead of an organized withdrawal, they will flee indiscriminately and leave heavy weapons to the enemy, that is, the Russian army.
According to TASS, since the beginning of the Ukrainian Armed Forces invasion of the Kursk region, the Russian Armed Forces have liberated 32 settlements in the region. On March 8-9 alone, the Russian military regained control of seven settlements: Malaya Loknya, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye and Kositsa, Lebedevka, Viktorovka, Nikolaevka and Staraya Sorochina.
Peace enforcement
How can we explain the sharp intensification of military operations of the Russian army in the Kursk region? Apparently, there are several reasons. At this stage, the Ukrainian military and political leadership does not demonstrate any particular desire to conclude any peace agreements.
In other words, there is no desire on the part of Kiev to end military operations. Only a series of severe defeats on the fronts of its military can motivate President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky to step up efforts to conclude peace. And the possible defeat of the AFU grouping in the Kursk region is one of the stages of forcing Kiev to peace.
In January 2025, Vladimir Zelensky called the seizure of part of Russia's territory by the Ukrainian Armed Forces a "strong trump card" for future negotiations. In February of the same year, Kiev claimed that they were ready to offer Russia a direct exchange of territories.
It can be assumed that the Russian military and political leadership decided in the near future to use an offensive operation in the Kursk region to knock this trump card out of the hands of Vladimir Zelensky and close the issue of any exchange of territories. In other words, to inflict a heavy defeat on the Ukrainian Armed Forces and sharply worsen Ukraine's possible negotiating positions at upcoming meetings on a peaceful settlement.
It is quite possible that the supreme Command of the Russian Armed Forces intends to achieve major successes in other sectors of the front in the near future.
On March 11, the American and Ukrainian delegations are scheduled to meet in Jeddah (Saudi Arabia). Washington stated that the goal is to create the ground for a peace agreement and an initial cease-fire. Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Ermak, Minister of Foreign Affairs Andriy Sibiga and Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov will fly from Ukraine to Jeddah.
The White House administration will be represented by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz and Trump's envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff.
Such a composition of the Ukrainian delegation does not imply any cardinal decisions on the part of Ukraine. Most likely, the possible terms of the ceasefire will be dictated to Kiev. I admit that Washington discussed and coordinated these theses with Moscow to a certain extent. Otherwise, the meeting in Jeddah doesn't make any sense at all. It is possible that a resource agreement will be signed between the United States and Ukraine as a first step towards a peaceful settlement of the armed conflict.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
