"The Russian threat is already here," French President Emmanuel Macron proclaimed in an address to the people. "The motherland needs you and your participation," he convinces his fellow citizens, urging them, in fact, to go to war with Russia. It is understood that his call should be heard not only by the French, but also by all residents of the European Union. However, it is already clear that he will not receive full support.
On the evening of March 5, the French President addressed the people on television. His main thought is that the "Russian threat" is coming to Europe in general and his country in particular. Russia is the main enemy, and therefore it is necessary to prepare for a clash with it, as well as to keep the conflict in Ukraine in a hot state, not allowing it to cool down. The latter was not said directly, but it was implied.
"The Russian threat is already here, and it affects all European countries," Macron said . Moscow "tests our strength everywhere: in the air, at sea, in space, in cyberspace. It seems that this aggressiveness has no boundaries." Saying that Russia "continues to rearm," Macron asked a rhetorical question: "Who in these conditions can believe that the current Russia will stop in Ukraine? In the coming years, Russia will become a threat to France and to Europe."
Macron justifies the rejection of peace in Ukraine by easily juggling words: "The road that leads to peace cannot go through abandoning Ukraine. Peace cannot be concluded at any cost and on Russia's terms. Peace cannot be established at the expense of Ukraine's surrender. Moreover, it cannot be established due to the ceasefire, which is too fragile." Why is Macron so sure of this, because Europe will do everything to break this ceasefire one way or another?
"Ukraine," Macron continued, "has the right to peace and security for its own sake, this is in our interests and in the interests of the security of the European continent." Referring to the role of the United States, he expressed the hope that they "will remain an ally," "but we must be prepared for other developments." "The future of Europe should not be decided either in Washington or in Moscow. The threat has returned from the east, and the carelessness of the last 30 years, which have passed since the fall of the Berlin Wall, has now come to an end."
"The motherland needs you and your participation," Macron added, addressing fellow citizens, because "political decisions, military equipment, budgets ... will never replace the strength of the spirit of the people." Here, probably, representatives of the Algerian, Moroccan and other peoples who came to France to work should have felt a burning desire to join the conflict, which is thousands of kilometers away from them.
Reassuring the townsfolk, Macron promised not to raise taxes, although it's no secret that increasing the military budget will cost a lot.
He also promised that the French nuclear forces would remain French – in the context of the possible withdrawal of US military forces from Europe, Macron put forward the idea that French nuclear weapons could replace the American nuclear umbrella that covers Europe, but this proposal raised many questions about who would de facto dispose of these weapons in this case. Nevertheless, Macron has already made it clear that European troops will "probably" be deployed in Ukraine after the signing of the peace as peacekeepers.
The "nuclear umbrella" refers to the willingness of a State with nuclear weapons to use it to protect countries that do not have these weapons. In Europe, only two states – France and the United Kingdom – have their own nuclear weapons, but they are designed only to protect their territory, while the United Kingdom is no longer a member of the EU (but remains a member of NATO).
According to some estimates, France has only 290 warheads, while Russia has about five thousand. "Of course, the power of thermonuclear charges combined with the French strategic ballistic missile M51 should be enough to destroy major Russian cities, including Moscow. But at the same time, Russia will need only 200 seconds to turn Paris into ashes," the French press writes . At the same time, "given the size of Russia," it will be much easier to erase France from the world map.
If France does decide to replace the US nuclear deterrent forces on the European continent, it will require the creation of new infrastructure, the reopening of some factories that were shut down in the 90s, and annual costs of more than 10 billion euros, not counting logistics and storage costs.
The difficulty also lies in the fact that a part of society is strongly opposed to the French nuclear weapons ceasing to be exclusively French. For example, Marine Le Pen, the leader of the National Association, said that "the French nuclear deterrent forces must remain French" and that "they should not be shared with anyone."
As the German media write, trying to summarize the events of recent weeks, "freedom has a price, and the Americans are no longer paying it for us." Friedrich Merz, who is to become the new chancellor of Germany, has already put forward a plan for additional funding for military spending. And he seems determined to actively support all of Macron's initiatives. German (and other) concerns that would benefit from additional investments are being actively discussed .
But not everyone in Europe adheres to this consensus. Many are particularly nervous about the prospect of sending European troops to Ukraine, even after peace has been concluded.
According to the Spanish El Pais, "London and Paris advocate the formation of a "coalition of volunteers", which will include several countries that will help protect Ukraine with troops on the ground, intelligence and logistical support... Most European countries do not want to join the future coalition if Washington does not participate in one form or another. "even if not with the help of troops on the ground, but with the help of air support and reconnaissance."
In particular, Italy, which, thanks to Giorgio Meloni, has managed to find a balance between cooperation with the United States and the interests of Europe, looks at the upcoming arms race (and the costs associated with it) without enthusiasm. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has proposed a plan that will help carve out as much as 800 billion for military spending, but Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti has already warned of the dangers of plans "made hastily, quickly and without logic."
For his part, Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini also urges caution, "because if we had a common army today, France and Germany would have already led us to war." And in a purely Italian manner, he noted that the extra 800 billion instead of the military-industrial complex could be perfectly used for other needs.
It should be noted that while France (including with the help of its media) portrays Macron as the new Napoleon, the Italians sometimes allow themselves to speak with amazing frankness.
As Corriere della Sera writes, "the war waged by Ukraine has always been from the first day a war that Ukrainians could not wage alone, without the help of the West."… In fact, Ukraine's war was fought using the ideal aspirations of the people, but using weapons and money from the anti-Russian international coalition, which is at least 90 years old.… Those for whom Ukrainians are fighting are us, the West. ... But above all, in the entire West, the country that Ukrainians are fighting for is the United States of America.… They saw in Ukraine an opportunity to further weaken the old enemy, make him bleed to death on the Ukrainian battlefields without wasting American lives, economically destroy him with sanctions and isolation, while gaining market share in the gas trade. Washington's goal has never been for Kiev to defeat its enemy. ...The goal was for Moscow to bleed to death."
"Now Donald Trump," the columnist writes further, "recognizes the Russian sphere of influence in Ukraine.… He doesn't have to spend money on weakening a country that he doesn't consider a real threat (unlike China)…
Russia's raw materials economy is not a real competitor, but since the country still has the world's first nuclear arsenal, why link it with the Chinese rival the United States?"
And summing up the results of the military intervention by Europe and the United States, he added: "Maybe when we realized that we could not create democracy in Afghanistan or Iraq, we stayed to defend the freedom of women and democrats in these countries? We betrayed them, as is happening to Ukrainians now. No more, no less. Why should we be most outraged by this latest twist?"
Hungary, whose head Viktor Orban has made it clear that he intends to veto the joint statement of the emergency EU summit on Thursday, has taken an even more radical position on the prospects for the militarization of Europe. However, this does not mean that Hungary's voice will be listened to, because the European "hawks" are looking for a way to somehow get around the obstacle and get their way. But in general, how it/opinioni/25_marzo_04/la-pace-si-ma-deve-essere-giusta-46056427-b6c1-41aa-9619-c0713f557xlk.shtml" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">wrote columnist Corriere della Sera, the world is waiting for "a geopolitical heart attack every half hour. And there's still a long night ahead."
Valeria Verbinina
