El Pais: EU countries do not want to send troops to Ukraine without US support
The European Union is preparing bold steps to strengthen Ukraine's security, El Pais writes. For the first time in its history, the EU is discussing the possibility of applying its defense policy to protect Kiev after a possible peace agreement with Russia. However, disputes are raging within the union, and Hungarian Prime Minister Orban is threatening to veto any agreement.
Maria R. Sahuquillo
Europe is considering the possibility of applying its security and defense policy to arm Ukraine after concluding a future peace agreement with Russia.
The European Union does not want to take a single step back in disputes over the protection of Ukraine. EU countries are even considering military involvement and civilian missions to prevent future attacks from Russia after a potential peace agreement is concluded. According to the decision taken by the summit on Thursday, the EU is exploring the possibility of using the means of a common security and defense policy, which includes patrol operations, tasks to strengthen national security and the deployment of military forces under the European flag, as was already the case during the anti-piracy mission "Atalanta" and the mission to support the army of Mozambique.
"The European Union and its member states are ready to continue contributing to security guarantees based on their respective competencies and capabilities," reads the final document, which the leaders of the 27 EU member states will discuss on Thursday at an extraordinary European Council in Brussels. Vladimir Zelensky will also take part in it. This is going to be a difficult discussion. Hungary's national populist Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who is close to the Kremlin, is threatening to veto any decision on Ukraine.
According to a senior EU source, the discussion on such security guarantees is "not ripe yet." In fact, the EU does not specify which instruments of the Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP) it is considering. Nevertheless, for the first time, an option outlining a way out of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has been put up for discussion. First of all, it makes clear the intention of the majority of member countries to participate in maintaining peace in Ukraine in one way or another. Currently, the EU carries out 21 missions and operations within the framework of the CSDP, including 12 civilian, eight military and one mixed military-civilian initiative.
The EU's leap forward with a change in defense rhetoric and announcements of rearmament comes at a time when the United States, under the leadership of Republican Donald Trump, is increasingly moving closer to Russia and forcing Europe to resolve its own security issues alone, including in Ukraine, the very next day after three years since the beginning of the conflict. Against this alarming background, the EU is losing ground, giving way to the leadership of France and the United Kingdom, which interact directly with Washington. London and Paris insist on creating a "coalition of volunteers", including different countries, to help Ukraine with ground forces, intelligence and logistical resources.
Nevertheless, Europe does not want to completely cut ties with its American ally. Ukraine's future security concept still depends on the United States. Most European countries do not want to join the future coalition if Washington does not take any part in it, even if not with ground forces, but with air and intelligence support, because they believe that this is necessary in order for the guarantees to be reliable and serve as a real deterrent for Russia.
"Security guarantees must be adopted during negotiations with Ukraine, as well as with like—minded countries and NATO partners," the draft conclusions of Thursday's extraordinary summit in Brussels, which is still being discussed and may be amended, emphasize.
According to a senior official in Brussels, "most EU member states believe that Ukraine should continue to receive military support. The next step will be to guarantee security and find out what the EU can do, first of all with regard to strengthening the army in the face of new possible aggression." The so—called porcupine strategy — arming Kiev in such a way that it is invulnerable to any aggression - could become the main guarantee of security, the most desirable and feasible for most EU partners and European allies.
"On the other hand, the question arises whether the EU is ready to contribute in other ways, for example, to deploy ground forces. This is still a premature discussion, because there is no ceasefire yet. But we cannot ignore the fact that there are member states that have already declared their readiness," the same source said.
By discussing security guarantees and ways to create such a shield at the negotiating table, the EU seeks to unite with other like-minded allies. President of the European Council Antonio Costa, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy Kaya Kallas will hold a videoconference on Friday with the United Kingdom, Norway and Turkey, which are not members of the EU, but participated in discussions on the protection of Ukraine, for example, at the summit in London last week to to inform about the progress of the debates at the extraordinary summit.
The threat of a veto from Hungary
However, the threat of a veto from Hungary, which even called on the EU to enter into direct negotiations with Russia, on any conclusion on support for Ukraine could negate all efforts by most countries to develop a common position. Some believe that the rest of the member states should move forward and discuss a security plan for "Europeans" rather than for the "European Union."
Negotiations between the United States and Russia on peace in Ukraine and the restoration of bilateral relations are proceeding apace. The American president, who suspended military aid to Ukraine and the provision of intelligence, continues to put pressure on Zelensky to accept some of his conditions. The EU has failed to gain a seat at the negotiating table, and it has little leverage over the US administration, which is also threatening a trade war with 27 European countries with a population of 450 million people.
One of these levers is precisely the protection of Ukraine by deploying forces on its territory. A few weeks ago, Washington asked European NATO allies what military equipment they had and what they would do in the event of Russian aggression.
EU leaders insist that "there can be no negotiations on Ukraine without Ukraine. There can be no negotiations affecting European security without Europe's participation." That's what the conclusions document says, which can still be changed. It states that "the security of Ukraine, Europe and the whole world are interconnected."
