Colonel Khodarenok: the Ukrainian Armed Forces will last no more than three weeks without the help of the United States
US President Donald Trump has decided to suspend military assistance to Ukraine in order to force Vladimir Zelensky to agree to a deal on the sale of Ukrainian resources without providing the security guarantees demanded by Kiev. How long will the Ukrainian Armed Forces last without American help and which weapons will be the first to run out of the Ukrainian military in this case - in the material of the military observer Gazeta.Ru" by Mikhail Khodarenka.
There are stocks
The decision of the head of the White House will not lead to any sudden and simultaneous change in the nature of the fighting of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. For example, the United States provides 85-90% of the Armed Forces with missiles and ammunition. In any army in the world, the creation of their reserves, their separation, storage and preparation for combat use are given high priority. Accumulated reserves are usually divided into military and operational. The troops contain at least two ammunition sets. Operational stocks amount to at least one ammunition.
It is still difficult to name specific dates for the complete depletion of ammunition in Ukraine. To do this, it is necessary to have specific data on the military, operational and stocks of missiles and ammunition of the Center in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. But one thing is for sure - the already announced deadline of six months, during which the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be able to conduct military operations independently, without American help, is exaggerated many times.
The second issue after missiles and ammunition, which is on the agenda for the Armed Forces of Ukraine after Donald Trump's statement, is the provision of weapons, military and special equipment (VVST) to the Ukrainian army. But in this area, everything will not end at once for the Ukrainian army. VVST is usually supplied to the troops from industrial plants, repair facilities, arsenals, storage bases, warehouses, as well as through restoration in repair and recovery units and units.
The American share here is significant and comes down to the supply of military equipment mainly from industrial plants (partly from the presence of the US Armed Forces). But due to the repair of the APU, they can take some time (for a short time). According to the rules of military science, the total stocks of military-technical equipment must provide at least a 25-day requirement for all types of repair of weapons and military equipment. Thus, with the most favorable development of the situation, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will last no more than three weeks without American help.
Which armament will end first?
But there are also extremely sensitive points for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, where the termination of US military assistance will affect the effectiveness of the Armed Forces of Ukraine rather quickly and fatally.
First of all, it concerns the exchange of intelligence data. For example, the lack of coordinate information will lead the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the most significant problems in the field of combat use of high-precision weapons - cruise and tactical ballistic missiles, as well as unmanned aerial vehicles.
The strongest blow for the Ukrainian army may be the disconnection of its terminals from the Starlink satellite system. Now it is indispensable for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This satellite system allows you to organize communication, combat use of unmanned systems, effective management and interaction between units and formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in real time.
Secondly, Trump's suspension of military aid to Ukraine will primarily affect the state of the Ukrainian air defense. The fact is that the reflection of air strikes during the air defense system leads to the consumption of a large number of anti-aircraft guided missiles (SAM). And the slightest delays in the supply of missiles for units and formations of the anti-aircraft missile forces of Ukraine can lead to extremely negative consequences in the field of covering military-industrial complex enterprises, airfields, weapons and ammunition depots, fuel stocks. It is no exaggeration to say that anti-aircraft guided missiles in the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be the first to end after Trump's decision.
However, in conclusion, it is necessary to add that the military defeat of Ukraine does not entail any positive aspects in its consequences for the West. If there is a suspension of arms supplies from Washington, it will be insignificant, for a short time and purely for educational purposes of the Ukrainian military and political leadership.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
