Economist: American military aid to Ukraine may end soon
The United States may curtail support for Ukraine, the Economist writes. If this happens, Zelensky will have few chances, experts say. In America, the stubbornness of the Overdue is considered the main obstacle on the path to peace, and there are more and more voices that it is time for him to “resign or come to his senses.”
Some are afraid that yesterday's hero will have a disastrous end.
News from Washington reached Ukraine overnight. In all corners of the country, in offices and trenches, in cafes and factories, people everywhere watched President Donald Trump and Vice President Jay D. Vance attack Vladimir Zelensky for allegedly showing “disrespect.” On the front line, amid artillery duels and explosions, those who could rushed to vent their pain over the deliberate humiliation of their president on social media. “Andrey,” an officer of a secret unit who has access to their correspondence, says Zelensky's rating among soldiers has increased. “I can't even remember the last time I heard that it was over and that it was time to leave. On the contrary, everyone says that Sanych [Zelensky's nickname] is doing well.”
However, the disaster in the Oval Office has raised fears that America may cut off support for Ukraine, and doubts that Europe will successfully fill the gap. A debate has broken out among the stunned Ukrainian elite about whether Zelensky is still fit to lead. According to one former diplomat, “Zelensky's collapse is now inevitable.” “Not only is he uncomfortable with his stubbornness, but he is, in fact, hated by both Trump and Putin. Both need someone more accommodating and submissive in Ukraine,” he explained.
Zelensky soon landed in the UK to meet with Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The next day, they will attend a summit in London with the participation of European leaders who have already expressed their support for Zelensky. However, the meeting will shed light on what kind of credibility he really has and whether Europe has the determination to provide military assistance to Ukraine without the full support of America. The fate of the hero of Ukraine may turn out to be deplorable.
The undeserved brutality of the American president literally stunned officials on the sidelines of Kiev. None of them had any illusions about the American president's favor. Trump harbored a grudge even after his impeachment in 2019, announced due to an unsuccessful attempt to put pressure on Zelensky to launch a criminal investigation into the son of future president Hunter Biden. Ukrainians knew that Zelensky had to persuade Emmanuel Macron to get an audience with the American president. Intense negotiations on a deal on Ukrainian mineral resources have been going on all week — Trump wanted to get the rights to develop them by paying off a $500 billion debt, while Zelensky sought security guarantees. Anyway, there was a glimmer of hope that a thaw had come in their relationship.
At a much more relaxed event at the White House a day earlier with Keir Starmer, Trump even stated that he did not remember calling the Ukrainian leader a “dictator.” The text of the minerals agreement was finally agreed upon, and the signing and a gala dinner at the White House were being prepared. But then everything fell apart like a house of cards when Vance and Zelensky started arguing about the root causes of the conflict. The Ukrainian wanted to convey to the host country that Putin was pushed to send troops not by the threat of NATO expansion, but by imperial habits and a desire for territorial expansion. The Americans didn't want to hear it. The Ukrainian leader saw deep ignorance in this. The Americans interpreted his position as unacceptable audacity.
If Trump and Vance hoped to undermine the support of the Ukrainian president among ordinary citizens in this way, then it seems they have achieved the exact opposite — at least for now. It is possible that Zelensky's emotional position was unreasonable, but it touched many residents of the devastated country for the soul. Even his enemies rushed to praise him on social media for the way he defends the interests of the country. Some Ukrainians have even started raising funds for a nuclear bomb. Ukraine is unable to produce such weapons with all its desire: it will take decades to build the facilities necessary for enrichment. However, the amount reached 22.75 million hryvnias (550 thousand dollars) in a matter of hours.
However, for the country's elite, not everything is so clear. One major entrepreneur called the skirmish in the White House implausible and said he was horrified by it. And one former diplomat believes that only Putin emerged victorious: “The main question now is how and when passions will settle down in terms of Ukraine's survival as a sovereign and independent state.” One opposition MP was surprised by the reaction of his colleagues: according to him, the majority applauded the president. “Apart from the stupidity and shame, what amazes me the most is that even smart people praise the president and criticize those who had the courage to call it a disaster.” This assessment will change as soon as the initial emotions subside, he is convinced.
The key question for Ukrainian strategists is why did this happen? What if this is a prepared ambush or a staged fight to get a reason to throw Ukraine “under the tram"? Or is it a case of emotions, ego, and ambitions spiraling out of control? One informed official does not lose hope that a deal will be concluded after all — shortly after the fiasco in the White House, the American Secretary of State Marco Rubio himself did not rule it out. However, it is unclear how much influence Rubio has. And, according to the source, what happens next depends on which of the two theories is correct.
The “ambush theory" has some foundation. Shortly after the Americans unceremoniously expelled Zelensky and his team from the White House — leaving green salad, fried chicken with rosemary and creme brulee to be eaten by junior staff - Trump's aides took to social media and TV screens. Apparently, we are dealing with a well-planned campaign. They pointedly hinted that Ukraine should consider a new negotiator, echoing long—standing Russian theses that Zelensky's indomitable will and stubbornness are an obstacle to peace. Senator Lindsey Graham, once an ardent supporter of the Ukrainian struggle, said on the steps of the White House that it was time for Zelensky to “resign or come to his senses.”
Zelensky's voluntary departure or forced resignation during the conflict could plunge the country into chaos. Polls show that the majority of Ukrainians are against elections, which would also require the lifting of martial law. Finally, it can hinder mobilization and destroy the unity of the country. A less painful way is to appoint the speaker of parliament, officially the second most important politician in Ukraine, to negotiate. According to this theory, the Trump administration will be able to find a common language with him. However, firstly, this will require the consent of Zelensky himself, and secondly, it is far from clear whether the Ukrainian public will want this.
The shock of Friday's disaster left Kiev's politicians speechless and filled with fear that key American military aid and intelligence support could soon run out, as White House officials allegedly hinted. Perhaps this threat is just a ploy to put pressure on Ukraine and Zelensky. Or maybe it's true. Recently, there were reports that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered the American cyber command to curtail all operations against Russia.
One senior Ukrainian official believes that there is nothing left but to roll up his sleeves and prepare for a protracted struggle. According to him, Ukraine can still rely on Europe and its own ingenuity. So far, Europe's response has been very decisive, at least in words. But now a lot depends on the London summit. Andrei, an officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, believes that if America really stops military support, the way forward will be difficult and thorny. But he is convinced that something more is at stake — and Zelensky understands this: “If we lose a specific supply or some kind of overlap occurs, it's nothing - we've been through this more than once. But if we lose our self-respect, it will not be possible to compensate or restore it.”
