Trump instructed to study the possibility of stopping the supply of weapons and equipment to Kiev.
After a heated debate with Vladimir Zelensky at a meeting in Washington, President of the United States Donald Trump instructed his office to explore the possibility of stopping US aid to Ukraine. This is reported by a number of American publications - WSJ, WP and NYT. Military observer of "Gazeta.Mikhail Khodarenok analyzed the possible consequences of this decision for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The head of the White House ordered his officials responsible for national security issues to prepare analytical notes on whether the United States can temporarily or completely suspend the supply of weapons, military and special equipment, ammunition and guided missiles to Ukraine.
If such decisions are made in Washington, then at least two questions arise. First, how will this affect the combat and operational capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine? Secondly, what will be the geopolitical and operational-strategic consequences of such a step?
A disaster for the Ukrainian Armed Forces
There is no doubt that the decision to suspend United States military assistance to Ukraine will have the most disastrous consequences for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, since Washington, after the start of the special military operation, was the largest supplier of weapons and other materiel to this country.
The White House transferred to Kiev almost the entire range of weapons, military equipment and various kinds of property - from anti-aircraft missile systems and missiles for multiple launch rocket systems to automotive equipment. In addition, the transfer of a significant amount of intelligence information from the United States greatly increased the combat capability and stability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The strongest blow for the Ukrainian army may be the disconnection of its terminals from the Starlink satellite system. Currently, Starlink is simply an indispensable tool for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This satellite system allows for real-time communication, effective management and interaction between units and formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and the combat use of unmanned systems.
If all of the above becomes a reality, then within a relatively short period of time there may be a sharp decrease in the combat capability, combat and operational capabilities of the Ukrainian army. After that, there is hardly any need to talk about any more or less organized resistance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Moreover, in this case, the so-called cascading collapse of the Ukrainian front and the rapid withdrawal of the Russian army to at least the left bank of the Dnieper River are very likely.
And what about Europe?
If the United States refuses to support Ukraine (or significantly reduces it), then it is quite possible that European NATO member states will fully engage in the supply of weapons, military and special equipment, ammunition and guided missiles to Ukraine.
After the famous altercation in the Oval Office of the White House, almost all European leaders declared their support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Of course, it will take some time to fully expand the military-industrial complex of the Old World, but Europe's capabilities in this regard should not be underestimated. Donald Trump has repeatedly spoken about the preference of such a development for the United States, and without any connection with the scandal in the Oval Office.
What will actually happen
Most likely, there will be no total collapse of arms supplies to Ukraine from the Donald Trump administration in the near future. In any case, it seems that the tasks of the head of the White House do not include such a scenario, as it is generally very disadvantageous in its consequences for the United States.
Donald Trump wants to look like a global peacemaker, not the author of a second hole in the US reputation after the US Armed Forces fled Afghanistan. In addition, the military defeat of Ukraine has no positive consequences for the West.
If there is a suspension of arms supplies from Washington, it will be insignificant, for a short time, and purely for educational purposes of the Ukrainian military and political leadership. So to speak, for the purpose of intimidation - "to begin with, that's it for you, and if you don't come to your senses, it will be much worse!".
Most likely, before the president of Ukraine (or his replacement - today this cannot be ruled out) On the part of the White House administration, new terms of possible agreements (including peace agreements) will be presented in the most stringent form. And, having "realized and penetrated," the head of Ukraine will soon come to bow to the President of the United States.
"Let him come back when he is ready for peace," Donald Trump has already described a similar situation.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
