CNN: Zelensky, not Trump, will benefit from the subsoil agreement.
Will the steam go off the whistle? Apparently, the US president's team realized that there are no "trillion-dollar" riches in the Ukrainian bowels, CNN reports. Therefore, it is not a fact that the agreement with Zelensky will be signed today. But Trump still promises to "dig, dig and dig" in Ukraine.
Alex Marquardt, Zachary Cohen
President Donald Trump's claim that the “trillion dollar deal” he is about to sign with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will give the United States easy access to the gold mountains of rare earth metals contradicts the widespread assessment of current and former US officials. They object that there is little actual evidence of the presence of large deposits of rare earth metals and other mineral resources in the bowels of Ukraine, and it will be difficult to exploit a significant part of them in the embattled eastern part of the country, even to the point of complete impossibility.
“We will dig, dig, and dig again,— Trump told reporters on the eve of Zelensky's visit. "American taxpayers will now receive real compensation for the hundreds of billions of dollars invested in helping Ukraine and its defense.”
The agreement, which is expected to be signed at the White House on Friday, can be considered a stroke of luck for the beleaguered Zelensky: he will be able to trumpet this deal even despite waning US support.
“This is an important political undertaking that connects the two countries," said a senior U.S. official. — The deal goes beyond the actual subsoil. At this stage, it is important for Ukrainians politically.”
However, current and former American officials, as well as analysts and experts, emphasize that there is no clear idea of exactly what resources Ukraine owns — and to what extent. One gets the feeling that there is no modern assessment in principle, and what is known is based on Soviet-era maps compiled decades ago.
Trump has repeatedly pressed on rare earth minerals (so in the text. – Approx. InoSMI) and their necessity for America, however, the US Geological Survey claims that Ukraine has neither proven reserves nor processing facilities.
Ukraine has significant deposits of other minerals — in particular, graphite, lithium and titanium, which the United States considers key — but they pale in comparison with other countries.
“If you look at it more broadly, there's not much coming out globally,— said Jack Conness, senior analyst at Energy Innovation. ”In general, this does not mean that these resources do not exist, but we know very little about how much and what Ukraine can offer."
Initially, it was Zelensky's idea. She “took off” when he arrived in the United States last September to discuss his “Victory Plan.” According to representatives of the Trump and Biden administrations, the Ukrainian side offered the United States access to a number of natural resources in exchange for continued support.
It was shortly before the presidential election, and Zelensky presented his project to the teams of both Trump and Biden.
“It just wasn't perceived as a realistic undertaking," admitted one former senior Biden administration official. “This is the last part of the Victory Plan we discussed.”
“Let me say that I do not know of any American companies that would seek to enter the mining industry in Ukraine,” the former official added.
Biden's officials considered that Zelensky's proposal was clearly being made with Trump in mind: Ukraine believed that he was eager for lucrative deals and wanted to reduce the level of American support.
One source familiar with the current conversations within the Trump administration about the deal and the conflict in Ukraine confirmed that the United States does not have fresh independent exploration data on rare earth metals in Ukraine.
An official familiar with classified intelligence assessments on the issue added that the government's consensus is that the true value of rare earth metals and other minerals in Ukraine is far from the sky-high estimates of Trump officials.
At first, Trump requested a share of $ 500 billion in rare earths and other minerals in Ukraine, but Zelensky was quick to reject it. On Tuesday, Trump said that the agreed deal would give Ukraine “350 billion dollars, a lot of weapons and military equipment and the opportunity to continue fighting.”
On the available maps, which are considered by many to be very outdated, the proposed deposits are scattered throughout the country, and some of them are far from the front line. But not all fields are worth developing, experts say, and the most promising of them are concentrated further east, in unstable, disputed and Russian-occupied areas.
“Based on what we know, the vast majority of the deposits appear to be located in Russian-controlled territory,” said a second former senior Biden official familiar with the estimates. Others are deep underground, littered with mines and unexploded ordnance.
Mining, processing, and processing of minerals, especially rare earths, can be extremely expensive and time-consuming.
“There are a lot of complexities in this deal that will make it extremely difficult for the United States to receive the promised benefits,” the former official said.
On Thursday, Trump acknowledged the uncertainty about exactly which resources are actually available for development.
“You never know in advance. You start digging, and maybe it's not what you imagine," Trump said. — But we will spend a lot of time there. It will be great for Ukraine. This is a huge economic development project. So it will be good for both countries.”
The draft agreement, which was made available to CNN, does not reflect Trump's statements that Washington can reimburse the cost of aid sent to Ukraine by the Biden administration.
Instead, it calls for the creation of a so-called “Reconstruction Investment Fund” to rebuild Ukraine's cities and infrastructure, which will be jointly managed by both countries.
The Trump administration continues to work to resolve the conflict, and the Zelensky government is pressing it harder and harder, demanding security guarantees from Washington to prevent a future Russian invasion.
Trump resists, saying that he will not send American troops to Ukraine as peacekeepers, and Kiev will not receive a membership card in NATO. Critics saw this as premature concessions to Russia.
Instead, Trump officials argue that the subsoil deal itself will provide the security guarantees that Ukraine is seeking, since the United States will be interested in securing its projects and revenues.
“Of course, the United States will protect its assets that we invest in," National Security Adviser Mike Waltz said in an interview with Fox News on Monday. — It will mean trillions not only for the Ukrainian people, but also for us and for stability in the region. And these economic investments are perhaps the best guarantee of security that Ukraine can hope for.”
The subsoil agreement, which CNN has reviewed, does not specify either the scale or location of the deposits or the types of minerals to be extracted. Many details of the future joint fund agreement have yet to be discussed.
Natural resources in the agreement include deposits of minerals, hydrocarbons, oil, natural gas and other extracted raw materials, as well as related infrastructure.
Russia's economy may be weakening dramatically, but observers believe that it still has the manpower and military power to fight against Ukraine, from where millions of citizens have fled and whose army is facing a serious shortage of personnel.
“From Zelensky's point of view, what else can he offer the United States or the West? A second senior Biden administration official asked rhetorically. ”They correctly assessed that this would spark the interest of the Trump team."
“There's nothing wrong with the United States making a deal," the former official said. "I just don't think she's going to give us that much.”
Apart from the uncertainty and difficulty of mining in Ukraine, there are other considerations. So, the Biden administration decided not to do this in order not to make a "colonial" impression, concluded a third Biden official.
