On Wednesday, February 26, a four-day launch window opens, during which it is planned to launch a Falcon 9 launch vehicle. On board will be a NASA lunar probe, a private lunar rover and an Odin device the size of a microwave, which will go into deep space. His goal is to study an asteroid, possibly containing trillions of dollars worth of metals. If the mission succeeds, humanity will take the first step towards extracting resources beyond the Earth. If not, the dream of space wealth will be postponed for decades again.
The idea of mining minerals on asteroids has long excited the minds of scientists. In the 2010s, when Elon Musk was just starting to launch SpaceX rockets and private missions beyond the Moon seemed like a fantasy, startups like Planetary Resources and Deep Space Industries promised a revolution. They planned to mine platinum, gold, and rare metals on space rocks in order to bring down prices on Earth. But back then, technology couldn't keep up with ambition. Investors became disappointed, the projects were closed, Deep Space Industries was sold in 2019, the company's probe never reached the asteroid.
California-based startup AstroForge, with attracted investments of $ 55 million, is going to challenge the skeptics. The company plans to be the first in history to organize the extraction of resources outside the Earth. The step has already been taken: the Odin research vehicle, which weighs less than a washing machine, is about to go into space.
In April 2023, AstroForge launched the first Brokkr -1 spacecraft into space. He was supposed to test the technology of processing asteroid matter in Earth's orbit. But the mission failed: the probe burned up in the atmosphere. The company took into account the mistakes and developed a new device, Odin, and "from scratch" using its own components.
The mission of the spacecraft is to fly to the asteroid 2022 OB5, the size of a football field (up to 100 meters in diameter) and determine if there are metals in it. This space object was chosen for a reason. Observations using the Lowell and Large Binocular Telescope in Arizona have shown that 2022 OB5 belongs to the M-type, a rare and poorly studied class of asteroids that are believed to be five percent metal. Such objects may be potential sources of iron, nickel, and possibly platinum.
"If there are platinum group metals there, one kilometer asteroid will yield 117,000 tons of platinum. This will be enough for humanity for 680 years. Even a thousand tons is enough for half a century of smartphone production," explained Mitch Hunter-Scullion, head of Asteroid Mining Corporation.
2022 OB5 is moving in an orbit around the Sun similar to Earth's. It is planned that Odin will arrive to it 300 days after launch. The device will not land on the object. Instead, it will fly past the asteroid, at a distance of about a kilometer, and photograph the surface using two black-and-white cameras.
AstroForge employees with the Odin spacecraft during the final assembly
Image source: AstroForge
It is assumed that the rendezvous of the spacecraft and the asteroid will last 5.5 hours. However, the last 10 minutes of shooting will be the most important: the probe will receive high—quality images that will indicate whether the surface of the asteroid is shiny - this is a sign of metal.
In addition, AstroForge experts will monitor the deflection of the probe to calculate the density of the asteroid. High density is the presence of metals.
Throughout the flight, AstroForge engineers will continuously measure Odin's speed and position using radio signals and data from gyroscopes. The closer the spacecraft is to the asteroid, the stronger the gravitational effect. Even microscopic deviations in the motion of the probe (at the level of millimeters per second) will be detected by ground stations in India, South Africa, Australia and the USA.
The Large Binocular Telescope in Arizona, which helped the AstroForge science team obtain some data on asteroid 2022 OB5
Image source: Getty Images, McNally
Using Newton's laws, scientists will calculate the mass of the asteroid. The formula is simple: gravity depends on the mass of the asteroid and the distance to the probe. Knowing how the speed of Odin has changed, it is possible to determine the mass of 2022 OB5. Mass is only half of the equation. To find the density, you need the volume of the asteroid. It will be calculated based on Odin camera images and previous observations from Earth.
But not all experts believe in the success of a private mission. They believe that the photos will not provide accurate information about the composition. In 2010, the Rosetta probe found itself in a similar situation: it flew past the asteroid Lutetium (M-type), but found no obvious traces of metal.
Platinum, palladium, and iridium are key elements for electronics, catalysts, and medical equipment. Their production on Earth is becoming more expensive, and reserves are being depleted. Space can become a new source.
But even if asteroids are rich in metals, it is difficult to deliver these elements to our planet. There is, of course, an alternative — to use resources in space: to build stations, ships, refueling stations for missions to Mars. However, from a technical point of view, it is very difficult to implement this.
AstroForge is not the only player. The British Asteroid Mining Corporation is planning research on the Moon, TransAstra is developing a "giant bag" for capturing asteroids. NASA is also participating in the race, but with government funding. The US National Aeronautics and Space Administration has spent $1.2 billion on the Psyche mission to the asteroid of the same name. Scientists believe that this object is the metal—rich core of a protoplanet. But the results are expected only by 2029.
The advantage of AstroForge is speed. Odin will reach the asteroid in 300 days, NASA's Psyche probe in six years. If the mission of the private research vehicle proves successful, it will determine the future of the private space industry. If OB5 metals are present on asteroid 2022, startups will receive a green light from investors. If not, other missions like Psyche will continue the search. But it will take them much longer to explore asteroids.
