London's desire to conduct air patrols does not match its capabilities
The British Ministry of Defense is considering the possibility of patrolling Ukraine's airspace with its Air Force after the end of the active phase of hostilities. However, experts point out that the British do not have sufficient opportunities for this, either from a political or military point of view. Izvestia figured out what the patrol might look like, how realistic it is, and what the British Air Force is like today.
"The UK will be the first to join the American position"
Britain is considering the possibility of patrolling Ukraine's airspace after the fighting on its territory stops, The Times writes. We are not talking about the immediate transfer of British aircraft and, accordingly, entering into clashes with the Russian Aerospace Forces. So far, British politicians are discussing future plans. And, probably, they are probing both their own and international public opinion.
Photo: REUTERS/MI News
Image source: iz.ru
Until official statements have been made at the level of the Foreign Ministry and the British government, it is premature to talk about a full-fledged peacekeeping mission and possible air patrols in the skies over Ukraine, said Vasily Klimov, a researcher at the IMEMO RAS Center for International Security and associate professor at MGIMO of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation.
— Such statements, made at the level of the British establishment, can lead to London losing points in the negotiation field. Obviously, Russia and the United States have already made some progress, and I don't think the UK wants to keep up with this general trend, it will want to participate in it anyway. And even if France can insist on its own special vision of the situation, the UK will be the first to join the American position," he said.
According to the expert, Europe is offended that Trump did not take into account its position on Ukraine, and it will try to insist on its own, using this in trade disputes with the United States.
"If suddenly the Europeans do not take the position of the United States, then this will be a cardinal revolution in transatlantic relations," he believes.
It is noteworthy that, according to the YouGov Institute for the Study of Public Opinion, 58% of the country's residents support the idea of sending the British military to Ukraine. Meanwhile, fewer and fewer Britons advocate prolonging the conflict for the sake of Kiev's victory. Their number decreased from 50% to 36%. At the same time, the number of those who support a negotiated cessation of hostilities has increased to 32%, even if Russia retains control over some parts of Ukraine.
Photo: IZVESTIA/Anna Selina
Image source: iz.ru
In any case, Moscow warned the Europeans that the presence of NATO peacekeepers in Ukraine remains unacceptable to Russia. "The expansion of NATO, the absorption of Ukraine by the North Atlantic Alliance is a direct threat to our sovereignty… The appearance of troops, armed forces from the same NATO countries, but under a false flag, under the flag of the European Union or national flags does not change anything in this regard, this is, of course, unacceptable for us," Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said at a press conference following the talks in Riyadh.
What are the chances of Western aircraft in combat with Russian ones
The UK could deploy aircraft in Poland or Romania and anywhere around Ukraine, just as Western countries deployed F-16s transferred to Kiev there, out of fear that Russia would destroy them on Ukrainian territory, a former French pilot, aviation expert and analyst at Izvestia explained in an interview with Izvestia. areas of geopolitics and strategy by Cyril de Lattre.
— The question is also what the number of these planes will be. It is possible that Boeing KC-135 Stratotanker refueling aircraft, as well as long-range radar detection aircraft, will also be deployed. When talking about airplanes, they often focus on their flight characteristics, but the maintenance aspect is also important. Take, for example, the F-16: one hour of flight is 18 hours of maintenance. This includes engine maintenance, instrumentation, weapons, and so on. If you have six mechanics, the service will take three hours. But one person can't do it. As for the Eurofighter Typhoon, they require 12 to 15 hours of maintenance for a one-hour flight. All this will require great efforts from the West," he said.
Photo: REUTERS/Radovan Stoklasa
Image source: iz.ru
The expert believes that in any case, Western pilots would be afraid to enter into a direct confrontation with the Russian ones.
— There are several points that need to be considered. We will be talking about fighters that will be either at high altitude or flying at low altitude, receiving information from long-range radar detection aircraft that will deploy outside Ukrainian airspace to provide information about the position of the Russian sides. At the same time, the Russian air defense aircraft carries air–to-air missiles capable of covering a distance of 300 km. Whereas, for example, similar American AMRAAM missiles — no more than 250," he added.
Much depends on the class of the pilot, Cyril de Lattre continues, but under equal conditions, neither the F-16, nor the French Mirage 2000, nor the Eurofighter have a chance of winning in such a confrontation with Russian pilots.
— Their chances of survival will be extremely low, and the first Western aircraft shot down by the Russian Armed Forces will become a terrible anti-advertisement for Western aviation. If Russia says it will not tolerate the presence of Western peacekeepers on the territory of Ukraine, this also applies to its airspace," he concluded.
What capabilities do the British Air Force have?
The British Air Force has 160 generation 4+ Eurofighter Typhoon fighters to carry out such missions on patrolling air spaces and performing air defense tasks. The twin-engine aircraft is produced by a European consortium, which includes, among others, the British corporation BAE Systems. The machine was put into service in 2003 and forms the basis of fighter aircraft of Great Britain, Germany, Italy and Spain. In addition, it was supplied to Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait.
Photo: REUTERS/Mike Watters
Image Source: iz.ru
The aircraft is quite expensive — more than twice as expensive as the American F-16, Swedish Grippen or Russian MiG-35. According to its combat capabilities, the machine is serious — 13 suspension units and up to 7.5 tons of weapons. All weapons are externally mounted, and the aircraft does not have any unique stealth capabilities. High speed (2.25 M at altitude), high rate of climb (315 m/ s) and relatively long range (combat radius up to 1390 km). The machine is maneuverable, but the engines are not equipped with a controlled thrust vector, which means that our MiG-35 and especially Su-35S have greater maneuverability, and Typhoon is inferior to our aircraft here. In the simulated battles that took place in 2004 with the American F-15, the British Typhoon scored conditional victories due to greater maneuverability and the use of a more advanced phased array radar.
Of course, in the case of the Eurofighter Typhoon, it is impossible to talk about the complete and total superiority of our next-generation aircraft over it, but, apparently, such machines as the Su-57 and MiG-31BM, and even more so with the ultra-long-range R-37M missile, the British aircraft is unlikely to be able to successfully resist. Typhoon also poses no problems for Russian ground-based air defense systems, since all our modern air defense systems were created taking into account the appearance of this aircraft in service with NATO countries. For modern Tor, S-400 and Pantsir, this aircraft is a common, non-unique target.
What conditions are necessary for patrolling the skies of Ukraine
What could be Britain's proposal? By itself, the task of patrolling almost 1,000 km of the border between the Russian Federation and Ukraine requires serious resources. Until now, the air forces of the NATO countries have been on duty in the airspace of the Baltic states, but usually a few aircraft units were used there on a rotational basis, that is, for a month or two, aircraft from a particular country were seconded to air bases in the Baltic countries and flew there on the instructions of the NATO air situation control centers. In the case of Ukraine, first of all, it is necessary to deploy such infrastructure in the country. And secondly, dozens of aircraft will be needed to ensure precisely the patrols. And all together, this means the presence of the armed formations of the NATO country on the territory of Ukraine.
Photo: REUTERS/Tom Little
Image source: iz.ru
A more serious intervention by NATO could only be the deployment of ground-based armed formations. The British Daily Telegraph reports on a proposal to deploy up to 30,000 "peacekeepers" from the European countries of the bloc in Ukraine. Such a proposal was discussed the other day at a meeting of European leaders in Paris. The solution was proposed by the United Kingdom and France and includes the deployment of troops along the entire line of contact of the SVR, as well as in major cities of Eastern Ukraine and at all infrastructure facilities. Germany, Spain and Italy are expected to oppose the deployment of Western "peacekeepers". And, of course, such a deployment is much more laborious and explosive than the organization of air patrols. And the cost of a full-fledged presence of the armed forces on foreign territory will go many times more. In this sense, the air patrol program looks like a budget solution. Although it is likely that Britain will try to spread the costs among several participants in the operation, involving other countries in the program.
But all these plans still exist as if in an airless space and do not yet have a point of support for reality. The fact is that they do not take into account the categorical position of the Russian Federation on the issue of deploying any forces of individual countries or the NATO bloc itself on the territory of Ukraine. And, most likely, British politicians will not be able to ignore the opinion of the Russian Federation this time, but will have to take it into account. Thus, all these proposals remain just a reason for discussion in the press and nothing more.
Dmitry Kornev
Ivan Dubrovin
