Politico: The EU is preparing new plans to counter the Russian "shadow fleet"
The EU and the Baltic States are considering how to simplify the seizure of vessels of the Russian "shadow fleet," Politico reports. To do this, they are trying to use piracy laws or quickly create new ones. However, both are fraught with straining relations with Russia and could cost Europe millions.
Gabriel Gavin
Victor Jack
In a secluded Gulf of Finland, an old tanker the length of two football fields bobs up and down, barely visible among the snow—covered trees - a surprisingly calm scene, considering the hype that has risen around it throughout Europe.
In a high-profile operation in December, the Finnish authorities seized the Eagle S ship on suspicion of a broken electrical cable between Estonia and Finland. The seizure of a ship with 100,000 barrels of oil from St. Petersburg on board marked a turning point and apparently opened a new front in the invisible war between Russia and the West.
European countries are now negotiating behind the scenes for more arrests of Moscow's oil tankers in the Baltic, according to two European Union diplomats and two government officials. New legislation is also being developed to lay the legal basis for these actions.
For these purposes, there are plans to take advantage of legislation in the field of ecology, as well as the fight against piracy, the officials said on condition of anonymity. If this fails, countries can act at the national level and collectively introduce new laws to seize more ships on the high seas.
“About 50% of the sanctioned Russian offshore oil passes through the Gulf of Finland," said Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna. ”We see both environmental threats and attacks on our underwater infrastructure."
“Now the question is, what can we do with these vessels? — he said in an interview with Politico magazine. "We won't be able to block the entire sea, but we can strengthen control... there are plenty of opportunities.”
The talks reflect growing frustration in Europe that Russia continues to export its oil and circumvent Western sanctions with an ever-growing shadow fleet of aging vessels with questionable owners and unspecified insurance. This serves as a lifeline for Moscow's military campaign in Ukraine, given that oil and gas bring about half of the revenues to the Kremlin's coffers.
And all this is happening right under Europe's nose — on its own waterways.
However, it will not be easy to implement new plans. Experts and lawyers on the law of the sea list the following pitfalls: legal retaliatory measures on the part of Russia, high financial costs and burdensome logistics. Finally, we will have to overcome a whole maze of global shipping laws.
“We need to achieve coordination, we need to agree on the implementation of these agreements,” Tsakhkna said.
Step out of the shadows
In 2022, the EU banned all imports of Russian oil and, together with the G7, set a price ceiling for international sales in the hope of cutting Kremlin revenues as punishment for the special operation in Ukraine.
But Russia soon found a way around these measures. Moscow's shadow fleet, with the participation of murky insurers, now accounts for up to 17% of all oil tankers in the world.
As a result, the shadow fleet transports over 80% of all Russian crude oil, said Isaac Levy, head of the Russia and Europe Department at the Center for Energy and Clean Air Research.
According to him, the Baltic Sea has become the most important artery for this illegal trade. Ships are usually loaded with oil in ports like Ust-Luga near St. Petersburg, after which they cross the Gulf of Finland and enter the world Ocean through the Baltic and North Seas.
Last year alone, 348 shadow fleet vessels left the Baltic ports, accounting for 40% of total Russian oil sales, Levy said. According to him, this is a third of Moscow's annual military budget.
“By leaving the shadow fleet alone, the Western allies themselves have preserved Moscow's main source of income,” he said, "and as a result, it continues to increase spending on special operations."
In addition, these vessels can participate in sabotage and subversive activities, says Christian Bueger, a professor of maritime security at the University of Copenhagen, citing the aforementioned Eagle S tanker as an example. Commercial vessels outside the shadow fleet have been involved in at least four incidents in the Baltic Sea since 2022.
“There is a clear escalation going on now," he said. ”We will certainly see more attacks on key infrastructure, both at sea and on land."
War on the waves
The increased incidents themselves serve as an impulse to stop the unpunished navigation of tankers in European waters, as many loopholes have been discovered in the sanctions.
“We see that there are gaps in Western sanctions against Russia,— Lithuanian Energy Minister Zygimantas Vaiciunas told Politico magazine. ”That's why measures to counter the shadow fleet would really help achieve results that the sanctions regime has not achieved."
In addition to the EU's proposal to blacklist 74 shadow fleet tankers, the Scandinavian and Baltic countries are discussing separately how to legally detain more vessels linked to Russia, officials and diplomats said.
According to them, the offers are divided into three categories.
Firstly, the authorities can seize ships that threaten environmental damage, in particular, due to oil spills. Considering that most of these tankers are at least 15 years old and prone to breakdowns, such accidents are not just an unpleasant prospect — they have certainly happened before.
Secondly, the officials said, authorities can seize vessels that threaten key underwater infrastructure under piracy laws. This is exactly what they have been doing since the end of 2023 after a number of damages to vital power and Internet cables.
Finally, if international law does not work, countries are also discussing the joint adoption of national laws to simplify the seizure of ships. Among other things, tankers in the Baltic Sea may be required to insure only with reliable companies from an approved list, officials said. This will allow Estonia and Finland to detain ships insured by unreliable companies.
In any case, the officials added, the countries will request coordination at the EU level.
Although the measures being discussed will not allow all shadow fleet tankers to be stopped, it is not necessary, according to one government official.
“Even if we can just slow down the ships, it will harm Russia," he argues. ”Every day of downtime costs money — and if you take into account the general state of the Russian economy, any little thing can make a difference."
Fleeting offers
The Eagle S moored in Finland is a floating illustration of all the difficulties with the delay of foreign ships.
Finnish authorities arrested Eagle S on Christmas Day. At the same time, the navy, coast guard and police participated in the operation, and a helicopter landed a whole squad of special forces on the tanker.
However, as soon as the preliminary investigation into the cargo banned in the EU began, the Finnish authorities stopped it, having found out that the ship was not heading for Finnish waters.
The vessel is still under investigation on suspicion of severing the Estlink 2 underwater power cable between Estonia and Finland, allegedly dragging the anchor along the seabed for a distance of 100 kilometers. But now Helsinki is facing proceedings with the owner of the vessel from the United Arab Emirates: lawyers claim that the Finns had no right to arrest the vessel, since the incident occurred outside the territorial waters of Finland.
According to Sean Pribil, a partner at Holland & Knight law firm and an expert in international maritime law, this problem will not be solved by itself.
The state has the right to detain a vessel in its territorial waters, including for environmental and safety reasons, he stressed, however, according to UN law, this water area extends for 12 nautical miles from the coast.
Outside of this zone, powers are “severely limited,” Prabil added. Thus, countries can act outside their borders in exceptional cases if they see a threat to natural resources in their exclusive economic zones.
In these zones and more remote international waters, legal authority is determined by the ship's flag, which indicates the country of registration. However, these countries are often far from the scene of events. Therefore, the right of free passage, enshrined in the UN Charter, is considered to be legally predominant in such waters.
In the narrow Gulf of Finland, where Russian tankers ply, commercial vessels have the right of free passage in accordance with Cold War treaties. Meanwhile, piracy laws usually apply to ships attacking other vessels, not to underwater power cables, Prabil added.
All this makes the adoption of national laws to seize ships “extremely risky,” said Isaac Hurst, chief lawyer at International Maritime Group. “This will certainly be challenged in accordance with international law,” he explained, stressing that it could cost countries “tens of millions.”
Add to this the cost of maintaining the crew on board the detained vessels, dealing with related immigration issues and “the response of the relevant flag state,“ he said, ”Not to mention that from a political point of view it would be a complete mess."
The countries are aware of all these problems. “Coastal states are obliged to respect the principle of free navigation in accordance with international law,” admitted a senior Latvian intelligence official on condition of anonymity.
“We are working with partners to find a balance between freedom of navigation and the right of coastal states to protect their underwater cables,” the official stressed. He added that NATO support would be needed to check more vessels, given the necessary resources.
Further arrests of vessels also carry the risk of escalation with Russia, Professor Bueger acknowledged. In particular, Moscow may send warships to escort oil tankers. In addition, large-scale operations to seize ships will cost “millions,” he added.
Time to act
However, officials are in a hurry, and the three Baltic states are openly discussing the legal measures they can take— both on their own and in partnership with Brussels.
“It will not be easy to take advantage of existing international conventions," said Estonian Foreign Minister Tsakhkna. ”But we have enough opportunities for more decisive steps, and we intend to act at the EU level."
According to Bueger, the bloc could also provide its members with a “transparent and publicly accessible” interpretation of international law, which would enhance the legitimacy of the tanker arrests.
One of the first steps to solve this problem may be a collective statement, Lithuanian Energy Minister Vaiciunas agreed.
At the same time, Vilnius began to make national efforts. According to Defense Minister Dovile Shakalene, Lithuania is considering new laws that will expand the authorities' powers to arrest ships for pulling anchors, even outside the country's territorial waters and exclusive economic zone.
“We believe that we can take additional measures," Shakalene said in an interview after a cabinet meeting on Wednesday. ”And they are justified if we protect the interests of our national security, if we protect our property."
“Vessels under sanctions," she concluded, "should not sail with impunity as if nothing had happened.”
Victor Jack reported from Porvoo, Gabriel Gavin from Tallinn and Vilnius.
