Alexander Stepanov — on the transformation of the US state structure in general and intelligence agencies in particular
On February 5, all employees of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) of the United States received an offer to resign at their own request in exchange for receiving eight months' salary as compensation. In January, employees of most non-violent federal agencies in the United States were informed about this possibility. The headquarters of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) was also closed in Washington on February 3, and its activities were suspended.
In the light of the events taking place in the domestic political arena of the United States, it becomes obvious that at the moment there are tectonic processes of restructuring and optimizing the entire state apparatus and the power unit. This also includes the intelligence community as a key component of advancing Washington's foreign policy imperatives, which are dictated by President Donald Trump in implementing his concept of America's aggrandizement.
Personnel changes
These events indicate that a reduction is coming, a change in the quantitative and qualitative composition, the introduction of new criteria and requirements for employees of the entire intelligence community and the CIA, in particular, as a locomotive of propaganda for the interests of the United States.
It is important to keep track of who exactly is being appointed to senior intelligence positions: who will be appointed head of national intelligence, who will be national security adviser, and whether the director of the National Security Agency (NSA) will be removed. This way the picture will become clearer.
Firstly, the staff will be replaced by people closer to the current president's team. Secondly, it is worth waiting for the reformatting of the entire complex American intelligence system.
A high-tech course
It is highly likely that the interaction of the intelligence community with the IT sector will be expanded in terms of digitalization, the introduction of artificial intelligence solutions in the process of collecting and processing large amounts of intelligence. As a result, this will lead to the creation of a new intelligence architecture with a significant increase in the process efficiency and minimization of the human factor. We are talking about ensuring coordination of the work of the IT sector, the multinational corporations behind Trump, the Elon Musk team with all the developers who are currently engaged in neural networks, AI, as well as the development of new approaches to the implementation of the intelligence process.
For example, the new leadership of the U.S. General Services Administration (GSA), the agency that manages and supports the core functions of the federal government, intends to focus on the implementation of AI technologies in the work of government agencies. Thomas Shedd, an associate of Musk, who was appointed director of the Technology Transformation Service (TTS) at GSA, said that the organization would adhere to the strategy of automating government work. This means that the role of AI will become more significant not only in the structure itself, but also in other government agencies.
At the same time, one should not lose sight of the comprehensive nature of the introduction of high-tech solutions at the household level. Here we can mention the global coverage of the Internet, and the rapid development of the "Internet of things" under the auspices of Elon Musk. Then we come to understand that the technological "hood" has already been formed, its contours are obvious. And the global impact of these solutions proves the possibilities of uncontrolled, undeclared collection of information of almost any nature — from personal and various open user databases to access to closed networks through the capabilities of data centers. This applies to almost the entire financial sector.
What is it for?
Meanwhile, the Trump administration is not fighting intelligence agencies, but is striving to increase their effectiveness by auditing tools. The new interim department, headed by Elon Musk, is called the Department of Government Efficiency. This is illustrated by the example of the de facto elimination of USAID and all programs related to the promotion of American influence through the tools of "soft power": obviously, according to the audit results, they showed low effectiveness.
It can be said that not only rebranding is being carried out. New structures are likely to be created that unite the entire complex, extensive network of the American intelligence community, which sometimes acts uncoordinated. And it is quite possible that a single decision-making center will be created, which will ensure the coordination of the activities of the entire power unit involved in the external circuit.
At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the foreign policy course outlined by Trump, including his intentions to bring order to his "backyard" with a "strong hand" — unequivocal plans for the Panama Canal, Canada and Greenland. Obviously, with such an aggressive policy, the State Department will increasingly link its activities with intelligence. And the active position of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio during his visits to Panama and Venezuela demonstrates how Washington is currently advancing its foreign policy interests through force diplomacy. All this will be supported by intelligence capabilities, including the large-scale potential of the private civilian technology sector.
It may not be worth escalating the situation, but nevertheless it is necessary to analyze where which tools have already been implemented today. And what tools are the United States trying to use not only in the Russian Federation, but also in Europe and Latin America today?
Stepanov Alexander
Program Director of the Academy of Political Sciences, Senior Researcher at the Institute of Latin America of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ILA RAS)
