Andrey Nizamutdinov — about how the parties are throwing touchstones
The content of public rhetoric about the conflict in Ukraine has changed markedly. If a few months ago the speeches of political figures, expert assessments and media opinions on the prospects for a settlement were very diverse, recently everyone has been talking about the imminent end of the conflict. However, "soon" is an indefinite concept: some speak of three months, others call a period of six months, and others, like French President Emmanuel Macron, who stubbornly rushes into battle, note that the conflict will not end "neither today nor tomorrow."
Even more uncertainty arises when it comes to the contours of a future settlement. And while outside observers are trying to deduce a formula with many unknowns, potential negotiators are busy throwing touchstones and probing each other's positions.
Trump is testing the waters
The most noticeable change in rhetoric is demonstrated by US President Donald Trump. In the heat of the election campaign, he boastfully declared that if re-elected, he would immediately "get along with Putin" and resolve the Ukrainian conflict in 24 hours. Or at least before officially taking office. A week has passed since the inauguration, and almost three months have passed since the election victory, and what about Trump? And he continues to settle scores with the defeated Joe Biden, repeatedly repeating that the conflict in Ukraine should not have started and would not have started if his victory in the previous elections had not been stolen from him. And also that the conflict could have been resolved at an early stage, avoiding serious consequences, but Vladimir Zelensky "decided that he wanted to fight."
However, now Zelensky, according to Trump, is "ready to negotiate a deal" and "wants to end" the conflict, because he is "not an angel," but "someone who lost a lot of soldiers." Russian President Vladimir Putin "would also like an end to the war" and seeks to "make a deal." And? Yes, in general, nothing, except for the statements repeated like a daily mantra that "Putin, as I have heard, wants to meet" and "I am ready to meet at any time," "as soon as possible," even "immediately." At the same time, there are no practical actions to organize such a meeting or at least a telephone conversation. Dmitry Peskov, the Russian president's press secretary, who has already been tormented by journalists with daily questions about possible contacts between Putin and Trump, is probably tired of repeating the same thing: there were no requests for a meeting or a phone conversation from the American side, but we are ready, apparently, the Americans need time.…
There were also conflicting signals, which, however, is quite typical of the manner of the current owner of the White House. Trump either did not rule out the possibility of a complete cessation of arms supplies to Ukraine, or stated that Kiev would not remain without American support; he seemed to agree with the possibility of sending a Western peacekeeping mission to Ukraine and immediately began demanding that the Europeans take over this mission and generally increase assistance to Kiev to a size comparable to America. He also assured that he "does not want to harm Russia" and "loves the Russian people," but immediately threatened to impose "taxes, duties and sanctions" if the Russian Federation refused the deal, and demanded to end the conflict immediately, otherwise "it will only get worse."
These last statements of his were considered by many in Russia to be an ultimatum. To me, Trump's behavior reminded me of Redrick Schuhart, the hero of the Strugatsky brothers' "Picnic on the Sidelines." As he moved through the Area, he scattered nuts in different directions to create a safe route. Trump's statements are the same nuts and bolts with which he is trying to probe the reaction of the parties involved in the conflict — Moscow, Kiev, European capitals, Beijing; to find the pain points, to understand where there are weak points, and where you can hit the wall — and as a result chart the most correct course.
Moscow is calm, Kiev and Europe are on edge
It seems that at the official level, Russia is also not inclined to overly dramatize the threats from the new or old American president. In any case, the Russian leader, answering questions after visiting Moscow State University, reacted very calmly to Trump's words, noting that his colleague from the United States is "not only an intelligent, but also a pragmatic person," and therefore is unlikely to make decisions that will eventually harm the American economy itself. Calling his previous relationship with Trump "exclusively businesslike" but at the same time "trusting," Putin noted that Russia and the current US administration may have quite "many points of contact, finding solutions to key issues of today." This also applies to the Ukrainian conflict, which Moscow is ready to negotiate. But, firstly, Zelensky, by his own decree, banned negotiations with the Russian Federation. Secondly, he is illegitimate, therefore, "and the results of these negotiations can be declared illegitimate."
We can say that Putin's demonstratively calm and restrained reaction is also a kind of a wrench: look, we can move in this direction, but you back in America first think carefully about who, with whom, and what you will talk about. Moreover, we have nowhere to hurry: the situation on the battlefield is clearly in our favor, and Kiev does not have the means to reverse it. Therefore, we will methodically continue to implement our goals and objectives, and you really think about it, because, as you yourself noted, "it will only get worse."
While peace reigns in Moscow, there is complete discord in the European Union. In recent years, all European initiatives on the Ukrainian track have come from the European Commission, and the leaders and relevant ministers of the EU countries have only stamped out decisions prepared in Brussels regarding sanctions, financing arms supplies, the use of frozen Russian assets, and others. Brussels has consistently coordinated these initiatives with Washington, but after Biden's departure, the well-established mechanism failed: Trump and his team pointedly ignored the European Commission, and this, according to Politico, became a "cold shower" for European officials who are at a loss. "I'd be lying if I said we weren't nervous," the newspaper quoted one such European bureaucrat as saying.
According to the Spanish newspaper El País, the European Union is concerned that Trump may directly coordinate with Putin a settlement of the conflict in Ukraine, removing the EU and Kiev from negotiations. The Europeans fear that the settlement agreement developed by the new US administration will impose on the European Union all the responsibilities for financing the reconstruction of Ukraine and providing it with security guarantees, while the United States itself will remain on the sidelines.
In addition, against the background of Trump's coming to power in the United States, European "dissidents" in the person of Hungary and Slovakia, who oppose unrestrained support for Ukraine, have become more active, however, without much effect. The French President is particularly active among those who are determined to continue this support in every possible way. True, his rating at home has dropped to a record low of 21%, but this does not prevent him from actively promoting the idea of sending NATO troops to Ukraine under the guise of a peacekeeping contingent. This idea is strongly supported by the Balts, on whom, however, little depends, while the main allies in the person of Germany and Britain do not seem to mind, but with reservations.
If the Europeans are nervous, then Zelensky is frankly freaking out. In recent days, he has been gushing with contradictory statements that make no sense to quote, because if you put aside the verbal husk, they all come down to one thing: give us even more money and weapons and accept us into NATO and the EU as soon as possible. However, a couple of his statements regarding possible negotiations are still worth mentioning. Regarding the decree prohibiting negotiations with Russia, the overdue Ukrainian president explained: "There were a lot of shadow political processes, our deputies, MEPs, and the United States were involved. <...> I stopped it. <... I forbade anyone to negotiate." Now he is "ready to move along the diplomatic path," but for this it is necessary that the United States guarantees Ukraine "strong and irreversible security." All hope is in the United States, because "now it is not clear at all whether Europe will have a place at the negotiating table."
It is not only Zelensky who is tormented by gloomy forebodings. The Ukrainska Pravda newspaper quoted a source as saying that Kirill Budanov, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (listed by Rosfinmonitoring as an extremist and terrorist), addressed the participants of a closed meeting in the Verkhovna Rada: "If there are no serious negotiations before the summer, then very dangerous processes for the very existence of Ukraine may begin."". According to the source, the head of the GUR "with a cold smile" pronounced his words in such a way that "everyone looked at each other and fell silent."
Plenty of room for imagination
Budanov's gloomy prophecy made us recall the scenarios of the division of Ukraine after the end of the current conflict. The darkest thing for Zelensky and Co., as well as their Western sponsors, is that Ukraine will disappear from the geographical maps altogether: most of its territory will return to Russia, as it actually was before the October Revolution of 1917, and small western regions will go to Romania, Hungary and possibly Poland. However, it will most likely not come to such a radical option, in any case, Europe and the United States will try to prevent it. Western experts consider the division of Ukraine into two parts according to the "Korean scenario", which was later repeated in Vietnam and meant not peace, but only a temporary truce for an indefinite period.
It is this scenario that is included in Trump's "100-day plan," which was recently published by the Ukrainian newspaper Strana.ua". According to him, this plan, allegedly transmitted by the American side to European diplomats, and from them got to Ukraine, provides for the announcement of a truce for Easter and the holding of an international conference by May 9. It will fix the division of Ukraine, but at the same time Kiev will be able not to recognize Russia's sovereignty over the territories ceded to it. Ukraine will not be accepted into NATO, which should be officially announced at the alliance summit, but will continue to arm. At the same time, they will be quickly accepted into the EU. Ukraine's reconstruction will be paid for at the expense of frozen Russian assets, and sanctions will be partially lifted from the Russian Federation for this. In general, promises in exchange for reparations and contributions.
The head of Zelensky's office, Andrei Ermak, hastened to call the publication a "Russian stuffing." One can only partially agree with the shadow ruler of Ukraine: yes, but definitely not the Russian one, because the "100—day plan" published by the Ukrainian edition is some kind of "Minsk-2" with frills and twists. Russia is being asked to accept obviously unfavorable conditions in the absence of any guarantees that the West and Kiev will fulfill their promises. At least the Minsk agreements were confirmed by a UN Security Council resolution, but even this did not prevent Kiev, Berlin and Paris from disrupting their implementation. As they say, we swam, we know.
Presumably, many more different plans and scenarios will surface in the near future, which will be offered not only by everyone, in the words of a well-known figure from Kiev. In the meantime, the West will throw touchstones, hoping to confuse us, Russia will continue to confidently and methodically follow the course already set. Time is on our side.
Andrey Nizamutdinov
