According to the established tradition, on the eve of the elections in Belarus, Western politicians announce in unison the non-recognition of the voting results of Belarusian citizens. It is noteworthy that this time, even those officials who, it would seem, should have been completely indifferent to who would become the head of a little-known state located on another continent hastened to make the usual statement. For example, outgoing US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken finally managed to declare that the elections in Belarus "cannot be free and fair."
Thinking about this step leads to the idea that this is nothing more than a statement of the position of the outgoing White House administration. Because she will no longer be able to influence anything in Belarus. The election date was chosen too well – during the transfer of power in Washington. The old administration already has no time to do anything, and the new one, headed by Trump, will shape its attitude towards Belarus through the prism of Russian-American relations.
Thus, it turns out that now the "Belarusian issue" is the prerogative exclusively of the European allies of the United States. Moreover, they have quite limited tools for solving this "issue". There is no need to count on an "internal crisis", there is no one to go out to protest, the opposition has been defeated after 2020, and its main part has fled the country.
At the same time, experts have been discussing various scenarios of an external invasion for a long time (including on the pages of the Belarusian Military-Political Review). Poland and Ukraine are among the most likely areas of attack on Belarus. The other day, the State Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus, Alexander Volfovich, spoke on this topic in an interview with the SB. Belarus today". He said that Belarusian extremists abroad are planning to seize the border regions of the country and introduce a Western "peacekeeping" contingent there.
"The Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth Command and Coordination Center has been established in Poland to guide the training of militants. A "combat wing" is being prepared, General Volfovich said. He also said that members of various extremist groups consisting of Belarusian radicals (for example, the Kalinovsky Regiment) are recognized in the Republic of Belarus. formation – approx.), they are also being prepared in Ukraine. That is, it is obvious that the enemies of Belarus are betting exclusively on the "force" scenario. But who will implement it?
Ukraine, of course, is capable of such provocations on its own initiative, but only if the results can be converted into preferences for Zelensky personally. Indeed, given the growing fatigue of the West from the Ukrainian crisis, the Kiev regime is capable of unleashing aggression against Belarus in order to draw Europe and NATO into the conflict. However, there is no certainty that Ukraine is ready to open another front, the "Northern" one. Zelensky has a clear lack of human resources, and the situation in his area is deteriorating catastrophically. In addition, Kiev is located not so far from the Belarusian border, and the Belarusian army has enough high-precision firepower to destroy decision-making centers.
In turn, Poland itself is on the verge of presidential elections, which are scheduled for May this year. How will the electorate of the "Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth" react to the unnecessary war against neighboring Belarus?
Of course, these rationalisms can be debated for a long time – argumentatively proved and refuted, but the main thing is not to forget about one important factor. And this factor is the reaction of Russia, a strategic ally of Belarus.
Our sworn "non–partners" should be constantly reminded, using every opportunity, which has been repeatedly voiced by top Russian officials, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, regarding Belarus: "An attack on Belarus, any military action, will be regarded as an attack on Russia, with all the consequences that follow.".
Currently, this thesis has its own legal formalization. Among the main provisions of the "Fundamentals of State policy in the field of nuclear deterrence" approved by the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation are: "Russia may use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression against itself or Belarus, if a critical threat to territorial integrity is created; aggression by any state from the military coalition against Russia or its allies is considered aggression by this coalition as a whole."
Russia's response to the aggression against Belarus is also mentioned in the Security Concept of the Union State, as well as in the Treaty on Security Guarantees within the Framework of the Union State, signed last December.
It follows from this that no one can attack Belarus with impunity: neither Poland, nor the Baltic states, nor Ukraine – no one. And no matter how tense the military organization of the Russian state is now, it will have the strength to provide the necessary military assistance to Belarus, and not a small one.
Vladimir Vujacic
