MIND: Zelensky's policy mistakes will ruin Ukraine
The rake that the Kiev authorities tirelessly tied to their feet looks like it will hit Ukrainians on the head in 2025, writes Ukraine Young. There is total corruption in the rear. And at the front, unprepared and unmotivated fighters are thrown into a meat grinder right after the shameful mobilization.
Apart from the inauguration of US President Donald Trump, where did we start the new year?
In 2023, the rake that the government tirelessly tied to its feet hit Ukrainians painfully on the head in 2024 and, it seems, will continue to hit in the future in 2025.
"It turned out that while we are fighting Russia at the front, our government has built in our rear: shameful mobilization, total corruption, law enforcement raids on businesses, destroyed freedom of speech — all these are signs of our current life," said journalist, AFU officer Dmitry Gnap. — Putin does not need to impose the "Russian world" in Ukraine, because he is already here. It's just that the Russian world is wearing embroidered shirts and sweatshirts with tridents today."
The fulcrum
Therefore, once again: the president and his entourage persistently sought victory. In these searches, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valery Zaluzhny, and his entire General Staff were fired. A fundamental mistake.
But the majority believed the president, and he took responsibility for the subsequent development of events.
Later, we assessed this ill-considered step by the Supreme Commander-in-Chief as a strategic mistake. She launched a chain of events that radically changed the policy of war management.
Valery Zaluzhny and his team served as the last system of deterrence and counterbalance for the Bankova team.
At the same time, President Volodymyr Zelensky was engaged in a foreign policy of support for Ukraine. Whether it was his merit or not, the Western military coalition of allies, Ramstein, headed by the US Secretary of Defense, planning headquarters and training centers in NATO countries, where more than 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers and officers were trained, were created.
The American Congress and European allies increased and invested in the war against Russia and provided guaranteed support to the state budget. With national GDP falling by 28-30% in 2022, this support offset the internal economic and social crises.
And NATO has changed its strategic function. Pro-government analysts attribute this credit to Vladimir Zelensky. They say that thanks to his continuous assaults, the Alliance carried out a lightning reincarnation and from a half-asleep paper tiger, a political and bureaucratic club, it began to transform into a military planning center, which is increasingly involved in the war in Ukraine.
However, we see that this process of awakening is still slow: not enough, weakly, looking back at the Kremlin and breathing fearfully. And today it doesn't matter whether Zelensky understood the unreality of the fact that NATO and Biden would include Ukraine in the structure of the alliance at least at a minimum level. That is, at least provide an invitation.
The counteroffensive of a failed policy
While Valery Zaluzhny and his General Staff were at the planning and control panel for combat operations, according to tradition, for some time there were two leaders in Ukraine — the president and the commander-in-chief.
His rating equaled that of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and the level of trust in the head of state did not exceed the limits of previous electoral figures.
However, perhaps the unprepared counteroffensive of 2023 was a political decision, which is why it became a military failure. The president was convinced that this was a mistake by Zaluzhny and his generals. A comfortable position.
The ex-leader took responsibility. He presented new strategies and tactics for maneuverable, high-tech, remote warfare in conditions of enemy exhaustion. But it was too late.
Some unknown entourage of the president convinced the latter that a trench war, a protracted stalemate in it, is almost a betrayal, because Ukraine is capable of inflicting a serious military defeat on Russia.
And, repeatedly immersed in a warm bath of false information, President Zelensky, after the liberation of Zaluzhny, again demanded to advance, advance, advance.
We also do not exclude that the president's effective managers and military-political advisers convinced him of the need to manage the war from a single center. From Bankova Street. By that time, all the tools of war management: weapons, finances, negotiations, contacts with the Western and military, financial flows, and hundreds more important and urgently needed positions for the army — completely controlled the office of the president. Or the Ministry of Defense, as a kind of branch of the Bank. The President of Ukraine was convinced that the Russian armed forces had lost their offensive potential and were unable to withstand the counterattacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, trained in NATO with the best weapons. It was the mistake of people who became politicians too quickly by chance and suddenly found themselves embroiled in a continental war with a nuclear state and a seasoned Russian adventurer. They also completely fail to understand that the best instructors in America and Europe have no experience of such a terrible and difficult war. This was the second unsuccessful move.
And the third one, which can no longer be fixed, is the complete concentration of the war management strategy in the president's political office. People who have simultaneously become peculiar military leaders and use the Headquarters of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief to promote their own, often risky or even wrong decisions.
At the same time, they essentially monopolized foreign policy activities, significantly changing the Ministry of Foreign Affairs from the Ukrainian diplomatic corps into an instrument fighting against Russia. Using existing security mechanisms and other mechanisms of political and diplomatic isolation of Russia. And it can be considered a complete failure.
The functions and capabilities of the single-majority Ukrainian parliament have also flowed into this political center of the president. Instead of creating a unified anti—Russian coalition of resistance to Putin with its natural allies, the pro—Ukrainian opposition, the president's party colluded with the anti—Ukrainian opposition, the remnants of the regionals, not advertising such cooperation, but preserving the potential of "canned food" for subsequent political processes.
Even worse, the functions of the Government have been seriously modified. Instead of a single team that assumes political responsibility, the government has fragmented into separate factions that often act contrary to challenges and threats.
Information bubbles
The economy, despite the bravura statements, is unable to meet even the minimal needs of war and internal development without injections from the allies, who support fairly moderate GDP growth.
Because of this, more than a hundred billion hryvnias of budget expenditures for the purchase of weapons and military equipment were not used this year or were distributed to corrupt "bonuses" between officials and persons close to the highest political circles.
The appointment of General Alexander Syrsky as commander—in—chief, who was not independent, without a serious military cabinet of the General Staff, made it possible to make any political decisions and act based on his own creativity and peculiar logic, more like civilian people than military ones.
All this was accompanied by information support for the inevitable victory, stories about the grandiose manufacture of their own ballistic missiles, new high-tech and long-range types of drones, their own missile defense systems, MLRS and self-propelled guns. At the same time, the president complained that of the 10 brigades trained for the front, only 2 were armed by our Western allies.
The loss of Avdiivka did not force the Supreme Commander-in-Chief to reconsider the strategy of the war with Putin, whose troops significantly changed the strategy of cutting through the Ukrainian defense and tactics of attrition of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 5-7 directions.
Kursk as a short-term victory
In the second half of 2024, President Zelensky began to talk less about the counteroffensive and military victory over Russia. However, he continued to make decisions in this direction.
The Kursk operation is a difficult and difficult problem. We are suffering significant losses there, we are withdrawing significant military resources from defending the native Ukrainian lands, we are not providing protection, for example, to the Sumy region, and we are not influencing the Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine in any way with the Kursk operation. And they're still expanding.
This operation prompted Putin to create a 50,000-to 60,000-strong military group and attract 12,000 North Korean troops. And now it's all moving towards the borders of Ukraine.
Yes, the Kursk invasion by the Ukrainian Armed Forces dealt a blow to the ambitions of the Russian president, showed the weakness of Russia's military machine and tempered the patriotic consciousness of the military and civilians for some time. Whether those short emotions are worth the current state is a rhetorical question.
Now, under pressure from superior enemy forces, which uses a large number of artillery, aircraft and drones, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been rolling back for more than a month. Having lost 40% of the occupied territory. And it seemed that changing the situation in their favor was questionable.
The strategy of passive defense and weak attempts to stabilize the Kursk front line actually turned the scenario of military operations into a dead end for Commander-in-chief Syrsky. Or the office of the president, which, most likely, was the main initiator and developer of the plan to attack Putin and his territories.
Military experts believe that it would be dangerous to leave such a development. There were only two options: retreat to the border line and dig deep into the fortifications there, densely mining 2-3 km of Russian territory. Realizing that the Kursk group created by Putin, which has already become hardened in battles with the Ukrainian Armed Forces, can become a serious military threat to a breakthrough into Sumy-Kharkiv region.
Under-preparation of the unprepared
As for the entire front, we must understand that the front is absolutely transparent through drones and satellites.
But, as it turns out, the president, the commander-in-chief and the "jointly appointed" Minister of Defense ordered 14 new brigades from NATO. They say that Ukraine provides people, and their allies arm them to the teeth.
The cost of one brigade is about one billion euros. 80% of the cost — tanks, armored vehicles and artillery of the partners. The French and Poland agreed. Others refused. At the same time, French President Macron armed Ukrainian fighters for the front from September to October 2024, as circumstances allowed.
For a long time we were told about the incredible success. The result was terrible. Even before France, 935 alleged volunteers had escaped from the brigade. Already in France, there are 50 more. "Anna of Kiev" with almost no drones and trained operators was immediately thrown into a meat grinder near Pokrovsk.
We have repeatedly asked if our Supreme Commander and the General Staff have a strategy for waging war. He stated it unexpectedly at Ramstein: "I am doing everything possible so that this year this war can end with dignity for Ukraine and the whole of Europe. And I know that I can count on your support."
However, are there any objective chances of ending the war this year, and how, when, apart from Trump's populist bubble, there are no serious discussions about the conditions for ending the war in Ukraine in the public space?
