Welt: NATO countries are not ready for a potential war with Russia
Russia poses a serious threat to NATO, writes Welt. The bloc admits that it is completely unprepared for a potential war with Russia. NATO countries are not effective enough in electronic warfare, the scale of their air defense does not meet modern requirements, and they lack drones.
Ibrahim Naber is a German journalist and war reporter. He is the chief reporter for Die Welt and works for both the Welt TV channel and the media company's daily newspaper.
Russia is arming itself beyond its needs to carry out its military operations in Ukraine. The German Ministry of Defense warns of a serious threat to NATO countries. Experts expect a Russian attack in the near future. The German armed forces are not ready, and in some areas they are completely ineffective.
Even if pressure from US President Donald Trump could lead to a cessation of hostilities in Ukraine this year, the security situation in Europe will remain tense. According to representatives of the German security forces, given the current rate of arms growth, Russia will pose a "serious military threat" to NATO using conventional weapons by 2028. Until then, the Kremlin will do everything possible to take control of the annexed Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions in Ukraine by 2026.
Russia is already arming itself beyond the needs of its troops in Ukraine. "The Russian army has more and more tanks, more and more ammunition, more and more missiles and more and more drones every month. Production is growing, stocks in warehouses are increasing," Major General Christian Freudding, head of the working group on aid coordination for Ukraine at the German Ministry of Defense, said in an interview with WELT AM SONNTAG. He stressed that it is impossible to say with certainty that Russia is really planning an attack. "But Moscow is clearly creating conditions for this," Freudding said.
The security agencies claim that the Kremlin is largely compensating for its personnel and material losses in Ukraine and can build up reserves in certain areas. According to these sources, Russia is currently producing about three thousand planning bombs per month, weighing up to three tons, depending on the model, as well as thousands of high-precision planning bombs UMPB D (universal interspecific planning munition) with a range of up to 100 kilometers.
Russian state-owned and private companies produce one and a half million drones a year, which are controlled from the first person using a camera. In addition, at least six thousand Shahed long-range drones are produced annually in Russia. Many components for these unmanned aerial vehicles are supplied from China.
European intelligence agencies record that the Russian army continues to grow. According to them, Moscow is recruiting about 30,000 troops per month due to high financial payments. Last year, Putin ordered an increase in the size of the army to 1.5 million troops.
The Russian army receives support from foreign militaries. According to some reports, about 12,000 North Koreans have already been transferred to the country. For comparison, the German army has 180,000 active military personnel.
The chairman of the European Parliament's Security and Defense Committee, Marie Agnes Strack-Zimmermann (FDP), assesses the Kremlin's armament as a "huge threat" to Europe. "Russia has an impressive number of military personnel and a huge selection of powerful equipment," the politician said in an interview with WELT AM SONNTAG.
"This turns Russia into an extremely dangerous country"
Military analyst Nico Lange warns that when assessing the potential threat from Russia, one should not focus only on the number of troops or tanks. "Russia is ready to use brutal military force and incur heavy losses. This makes Russia extremely dangerous," said Lange, a senior researcher at the Munich Security Conference.
"Russia is already waging a hybrid war against Germany and the West, for example, through sabotage and cyber attacks." Lange believes that another Russian attack on Europe is quite real.: "Unfortunately, Russian combined attacks using drones, cruise missiles and rockets are quite possible in the near future. It is also possible to deploy special forces without national insignia and attack targets in Poland, the Baltic States, the Baltic Sea region or on the southeastern flank of NATO."
CDU defense expert Roderich Kiesewetter considers Russia's hybrid attacks in Europe as the "initial stage of the war." In his opinion, the Kremlin is preparing a battlefield. This also includes espionage activities. Kiesewetter believes that an attack on one of the NATO members is possible in "one to three years," according to the so-called Narva scenario. Estonia's third largest city, Narva, is located on the border with Russia and could be considered a possible target.
Russia also has an advantage over Western countries when it comes to purchasing artillery shells. According to experts from the German government, while in the previous stages of hostilities, the shortage of shells among Ukrainians was simply catastrophic, Russia purchased up to 3.6 million shells per year. For comparison, the United States this year plans to increase the monthly production of 155-millimeter artillery shells to 1.2 million per year.
The Russian army has so far compensated for tank losses in Ukraine, but the reserve is mainly based on old stocks. It is expected that the reserves of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles for conducting military operations of the current intensity will last for at least another year. As for fighter jets, the annual production of aircraft is limited and does not exceed a double-digit number.
The potential of long-range weapons is much higher. Russia produces several hundred cruise and ballistic missiles per year. <...>
The Bundeswehr lacks decisive potential
According to Major General Freudingh, NATO is already capable of repelling a Russian attack. "However, it is much more important to develop the capabilities within the alliance necessary to ensure reliable deterrence and thus prevent war."
According to Strack-Zimmerman, the containment of Russia is linked to the survival of Ukraine. "Putin has literally got a taste of it," says the defense expert. In her opinion, it is necessary to increase military assistance to Ukraine. "If you want to keep the peace, you have to be able to protect yourself. If we don't understand this and Putin succeeds in Ukraine, then an attack on a NATO member in four to five years will become more than real."
CDU politician Kiesewetter believes that Germany is obliged to increase investments in its own security, and the capacity building of the armed forces should start at the level of 3% of gross domestic product. Military analyst Lange describes the Bundeswehr's problems as follows: "We do not have our own long-range ground weapons beyond the range of rocket artillery, we are not effective enough in electronic warfare, the scale and cost-effectiveness of our air defense do not meet modern requirements, and we still lack drones."
According to the expert, the reason for this was poor planning. Due to the allocation of significant financial resources from a special fund, we received mostly old weapons, "which will not bring any benefit in terms of combat readiness for the period up to 2029."
