Konstantin Machulsky — on the results of the conflict in the Middle East
After 15 months of brutal and merciless genocide that claimed the lives of about 50,000 Palestinians, a truce has finally been reached in the Gaza Strip. The ceasefire agreement marks the victory of the Palestinian resistance, achieved at the cost of incredible human sacrifice, and demonstrates the political loss of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, if we consider the key components of this agreement in comparison with the goals set by Israel - the release of hostages, the resettlement of Gazans, the expulsion of resistance leaders and the forcible detention of prisoners.
If Netanyahu does not take unexpected steps now, which personally seems unlikely to me for a number of reasons, most of which are related to the demands of the new administration of US President-elect Donald Trump, it is clear to all participants in the negotiations in Doha, Cairo, Istanbul and Washington that the agreement on ending the genocide in Gaza has been finalized and is already being implemented.
What have we come to
Sources familiar with the negotiations said that the announcement of the delay on January 14 was related to Israel's latest attempt to manipulate withdrawal maps. Israel sought to include the term "withdrawal of troops from populated areas," which implied maintaining its forces in "open areas" near civilian areas. These efforts were thwarted by "determined pressure from the United States," according to sources close to the negotiations.
On January 15, there was a new delay due to disagreements over who would announce the agreement: the Qataris, the Americans, the Egyptians or the participants in the joint conference. "Everyone wants to announce their achievements, but the scales are tipping in favor of the Qataris," one of the sources explained. As a result, Qatar announced a cease-fire due to its key position as a mediator in the deal. A few hours later, U.S. President Joe Biden also announced a cease-fire. Two months earlier, Qatar had temporarily abandoned mediation in order to receive a mandate from the elected US administration. Washington, recognizing Qatar's "outstanding relations" with Hamas, pushed Cairo to the background and resumed negotiations in Doha.
On January 16, a day after the announcement, Netanyahu tried to delay the approval of the cease-fire agreement, accusing Hamas of "retreating." However, Hamas spokesman Izzat al-Rishk said the group remains "committed" to the agreement announced on Wednesday. Israeli media attributed the delay to threats by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich to leave the government in protest. Finally, on Thursday evening, Netanyahu's office confirmed the signing in Doha of a deal on the release of hostages and a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip by Israel, Hamas, the United States and Qatar. According to her statement, the Cabinet of Security Ministers will be convened to approve the agreement, followed by a government meeting. Voting is scheduled for January 18. It is noted that due to the postponement of the vote, the release of the first three hostages under the deal will be postponed to Monday, January 20.
The cease-fire will take effect on Sunday, January 19, just one day before the inauguration of Donald Trump. Hamas and Israel have agreed on a step-by-step approach to implementing the peace agreement, taking into account both short-term and long-term goals.
The agreement includes the release of 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, including 250 people serving life sentences, women and minors under the age of 19. Israel has also agreed to withdraw troops from key areas of the Gaza Strip, in particular from the Netzarim and Philadelphia corridors, which will facilitate the return of displaced Gazans to the north without preconditions. An important element of the agreement was the release by Hamas of 33 or 34 Israeli prisoners still held in Gaza, out of 98, representing a third of the total remaining captives. It is noteworthy that this was done without first informing Israel whether the hostages were alive or dead. For the first time, Israel publicly disclosed the number of prisoners from Gaza: 3,436 people, 529 of whom ended up behind bars without receiving any legal assistance. There are militants among them, but most of them are civilians.
The withdrawal of troops corresponds to the borders that existed before October 7, 2023, and prevents Israeli attempts to create "buffer zones" and achieve territorial seizure — a significant victory for the Palestinian resistance. Hamas has also secured commitments to rebuild destroyed infrastructure, including repairing hospitals, setting up field medical teams, and providing unlimited humanitarian aid. The agreement includes reopening the destroyed Rafah crossing on the border with Egypt, although Egyptian sources say the checkpoint is likely to open only in March. On the Egyptian side, work is already underway to restore it.
Qatar will provide 600 trucks for the delivery of humanitarian aid, 200,000 tents and 60,000 vans. In addition, Israel should limit flights over Gaza to eight to ten hours a day to make search and rescue operations easier for the Palestinians.
During the six—week implementation period, Hamas will gradually release Israeli prisoners, 3-4 per week, with an average of 19 in the first five weeks and 14 at the end of the first phase. At the same time, 65 people will be retained, apparently as a lever of pressure for subsequent stages. The details of these stages will be discussed later, provided that the Americans fulfill their guarantees to prevent the resumption of war.
The first phase of the withdrawal, allowing displaced Palestinians to return north from Al-Rashid al-Bahari Street, begins on the seventh day of the ceasefire. By the 22nd day, Israel will completely withdraw its troops, restoring freedom of movement for all Palestinians.
Results for the parties
In 15 months of all-out war, Netanyahu has faced numerous internal and external obstacles to reaching this agreement. In fact, the Israeli version of "absolute victory" has collapsed. Much-publicized promised achievements, such as the preservation of the strategic Netzarim and Philadelphia corridors, have been negated, and Netanyahu and his ruling coalition are facing a crisis in public relations. The release of Palestinian prisoners and the renunciation of territorial claims evoke the memory of observers of the exchange of 2011, when 1,027 Palestinians were released for the release of soldier Gilad Shalit — a painful reminder for Israelis.
The reaction of the Israeli media reflects this bitterness. "The pressure that Trump is exerting right now is not what Israel expected from him," complains political commentator Jacob Bardugo on Channel 14. Ariel Segal, a channel journalist close to Netanyahu, noted: "Perhaps we (Israel — author's note) will be the first to pay for the election of Trump." Segal, an ally of Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, admits that "Trump increased pressure on Hamas to the point that Israel broke down."
As compensation, there is reportedly an "American compensation package" offering Netanyahu political cover for this domestic defeat. It includes lifting sanctions on extremist settlers, protecting Israeli leaders from international lawsuits, and allowing the expansion of large settlements in the West Bank. However, compared to the far-reaching initial ambitions, such as annexing the West Bank or attacking Iran, these concessions do not seem so significant.
The deceased Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who led the Al-Aqsa Flood Resistance operation, is becoming a key figure in the context of the prisoner exchange. According to Hamas sources, the resistance concluded a truce on Sinwar's strict terms, and he achieved his goals even after his death. This will further glorify him in the eyes of the Palestinians as a man whose struggle to the bitter end was captured in emotional footage during his direct confrontation with IDF soldiers.
Today, Israel is facing the prospect of releasing hundreds of prisoners sentenced to life in prison, and is bitterly reflecting that future "sinwars" may be among them. For Israel, prisoners sentenced to life in prison are considered "blood defilers," which means they pose a threat and are influential Palestinian figures.
Despite the unprecedented suffering — about 200,000 dead and injured, massive population movements and the almost complete destruction of Gaza, the Palestinians find solace in the fact that they stopped the war and achieved key concessions. Gazans have experienced horrors that they compare to "doomsday scenes." Among the victims are 17,000 orphans and countless families, information about which has been destroyed.
Qatar's steadfastness of resistance and skillful diplomacy led to the conclusion of an agreement that, although imperfect, in my opinion, prevents further bloodshed and limits Israel's ambitions for a long-term occupation. However, the cease-fire still remains unreliable and depends only on American guarantees and mutual respect for conditions. For Gazans affected by the war but not broken, the agreement symbolizes not just survival, but also a step towards restoring their dignity in the face of ongoing struggle.
Such an outcome would not have been possible without the unwavering determination of the Palestinian resistance in Gaza. Their intensified operations, especially on the front line near Beit Hanoun, as a result of which Israeli troops suffered heavy losses, have played a role in addition to the regional fronts opened by Hamas' allies in the "Axis of Resistance." The joy of the Palestinians knows no bounds. They celebrate what they consider their victory, not only on the streets of Gaza, but also in diasporas abroad, and in the West Bank, and even in refugee camps scattered throughout the Arab East in makeshift tents that they now call home.
