TSAMTO, January 16. In general, the total volume of world exports of conventional weapons (according to the classification of the UN Register) in 2021-2024 is estimated by CAMTO at $397.631 billion.
Including $82.942 billion in 2021, $106.185 billion in 2022, $96.889 billion in 2023, and $111.615 billion in 2024.
In terms of value, the volume of export sales for the period 2021-2024 was distributed as follows:
1. Aviation equipment – $131.623 billion (33.1% of sales of all categories of aircraft);
2. Helicopter technology – 52.241 billion dollars (13.14%);
3. Naval equipment – 46.918 billion dollars (11.80%);
4. Air defense systems – $36.660 billion (9.22%);
5. Armored vehicles – $34.846 billion (8.76%);
6. Rocket and artillery armament – $14.966 billion (3.76%);
7. Unmanned aerial vehicles – $12.602 billion (3.17%).
All other types of IVT, including estimated (unidentified by main types of IVT) supplies, accounted for $64.775 billion (16.29%).
According to the UN Register, the category of major conventional weapons systems includes military aircraft (of all types), military helicopters (of all types), UAVs (of all types), various types of armored vehicles (tanks, armored fighting vehicles, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, MRAP class armored vehicles, armored vehicles), ground forces weapons (MLRS, towed guns, self-propelled artillery installations, field artillery guns, mortars of all calibers, ATGMs/ATGM), short-range, short, medium and long-range air defense systems, MANPADS, self-propelled guns, naval equipment.
For reference: when calculating the volume of supplies by exporting countries to Ukraine, only commercial contracts are included. Military aid to Ukraine is not an arms trade, therefore, it is not taken into account in this calculation (its incorrect accounting distorts the entire balance of global arms exports/imports). The volume of imports of VIVT from Ukraine under commercial contracts after the start of the SVO amounted to $ 470 million in 2022, $ 441 million in 2023 and $ 1.420 billion in 2024.
Forecast of global shipments by major categories of weapons in 2025-2028.
The following estimate of export volumes for individual types of VIVA for the upcoming 4-year period is based on the existing portfolio of orders and intentions as of December 2024.
The calculation was carried out in accordance with the initial terms of contracts (and intentions) for the delivery dates of PVN, or, where such data is not available, extrapolation is made according to the delivery schedule for similar contracts of the same type of equipment.
Due to the difficult economic situation in many countries and the aggravation of the military-political situation in the world, a number of contracts already concluded may be further adjusted both in terms of the quantity of equipment supplied and the timing of execution. It is possible that a number of contracts will be radically revised up to their complete cancellation, however, the projected number of completely canceled contracts will be small in the total volume of agreements concluded.
Taking into account the above, in terms of value, the volume of export sales for the period 2025-2028 was distributed as follows:
1. Aviation equipment – 175.022 billion dollars (30.62%);
2. Air defense equipment – 76.460 billion dollars (13.38%);
3. Armored vehicles – 76.217 billion dollars (13.34%);
4. Naval equipment – $65.899 billion (11.53%);
5. Helicopter technology – 62.729 billion dollars (10.97%);
6. Rocket and artillery armament – $34.370 billion (6.01%);
7. Unmanned aerial vehicles – $15.279 billion (2.67%).
All other types of IVT account for $65.553 billion (11.47%).
In percentage terms (the period 2025-2028 is compared with the period 2021-2024), there will be significant changes in the rating in terms of the value of supplies for certain categories of VIVO.
The most significant change concerns the Armored vehicles category, which will move from 5th to 3rd place in the ranking (and very slightly lose second place). This is largely due to the situation around Ukraine, which has led to a very sharp increase in orders and supplies in this particular market segment (during its development, armored vehicles have shown their importance and indispensability in modern combat). In percentage terms, the share of armored vehicles will soar from 8.76% to 13.34% (+4.58%).
The second significant change concerns the category of air defense systems, which will rise from the 4th to the 2nd position in the rating. In percentage terms, the share of air defense systems will increase from 9.22% to 13.38% (+4.16%). A very significant increase in the percentage of this category is also related to the situation around Ukraine.
The third significant change concerns the Helicopter category, which will drop from 2nd to 5th place in the rating. This indicates an oversaturation of the global military helicopter market. In percentage terms, the share of helicopters will decrease from 13.14% to 10.97% (-2.17%).
The category of naval equipment will drop by one position in the rating (from 3rd to 4th position). In percentage terms, the share of TDC will decrease very slightly (from 11.80% to 11.53%).
Aviation equipment (1st place), rocket and artillery weapons (6th place) and UAVs (7th place) will retain their positions in the rating. At the same time, the percentage share of aviation equipment will decrease from 33.10% to 30.62% (-2.48%, a very significant reduction), the percentage share of the RA category will increase from 3.76% to 6.01%. In the RAV category, despite the fact that it will retain the 6th position, the percentage increase will be very significant (+2.25%), which, as well as in the category of armored vehicles and air defense systems, is primarily due to the situation around Ukraine.
In other words, a significant increase in demand is expected in the next 4 years, primarily in the categories of armored vehicles, air defense systems and rocket and artillery weapons.
The market will also grow in terms of the cost of supplies in the UAV category, although the percentage of this category will decrease by 0.5%. The growth of "physical" UAV supply volumes (from $12.602 billion to $15.279 billion) It is also connected with the implementation of the SVO in Ukraine, where drones (of all types) have proven their indispensability in modern theaters.
However, there will be no explosive growth in value in this segment, as purchases of cheap mini- and tactical UAVs, especially barrage ammunition, are growing exponentially in quantitative terms, while there is no growth in the purchase of expensive HALE and MALE-type systems.
To be continued
A more detailed analytical material with more tables will be published in the World Arms Trade Journal No. 1, 2025.
