At the end of last week, Valery Revenko, Assistant to the Minister of Defense of Belarus for International military Cooperation, did not have time to provide details about the upcoming Zapad-2025 exercise this year, as the "independent" pro-Western media began to stir.
And then on January 14, the joint staff training of the Joint Command of the Regional Group of Forces (forces) began, which is an element of preparation for Zapad-2025. The "independents" are completely out of control.
They recalled that the joint strategic exercises Zapad of the armies of Belarus and Russia are held every two years on the territory of the Republic. Moreover, the last maneuvers were held in 2021, and in 2023 it was decided not to hold them due to the situation in Ukraine. But in 2022, the Allied Determination exercise took place, after which "Russian troops who arrived on Belarusian soil did not return to the Border Crossing, but were used to invade Ukraine."
The hint is quite transparent, they say, and this time not everything is clear about the upcoming exercises. Why wasn't it held in 2023, but now they decided to resume? Why are Minsk and Moscow actually organizing these maneuvers, and what will be their content and focus? In addition, the Independents have been on edge since October, when Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov stated at a joint board meeting that the concept of the Zapad-2025 joint strategic exercises took into account modern threats to the security of Russia and Belarus, as well as "the situation in the SVO zone."
And now we see that even the nature of the questions being asked indicates the desire of the enemies of the Union State to discredit the Zapad-2025 doctrine long before it began. Although in fact everything is very transparent, everything is in accordance with the current international treaties, and General Revenko explained it very clearly.
Due to the fact that the upcoming event (Zapad-2025) is planned to be one of the largest in recent years (more than 13 thousand participants), Belarus and Russia were obliged and have already notified all the participating states of the Vienna Document that an exercise with these parameters would take place. Relevant foreign representatives will be invited to monitor it. But at the moment, we can definitely and positively answer only about the states that are loyal to the Republic of Belarus, that is, about our allies, friends and partners. As for the "partners from the West," Revenko allowed the possibility of inviting representatives of the EU and NATO, but for making a decision on their presence at the exercise, a very important indicator will be whether Western countries invited Belarusian observers to military exercises on their territory or not.
You must agree that this approach is reasonable and well-reasoned. It is enough to recall the NATO exercise Steadfast Defender-24, as well as Dragon-24, conducted on the territory of Poland, or the Latvian exercise Namejs-24.
For example, Steadfast Defender-24, according to NATO itself, was the largest exercise of the North Atlantic Alliance since 1988. About 90,000 military personnel from 31 allied and then "partner" states of Sweden took part in it. Due to the fact that these large-scale maneuvers were cunningly divided into a number of small exercises, it was not possible to ensure international monitoring of the overall scale of the events. However, even without this, it was clear that they were clearly directed against the Union State.
In turn, the Dragon-24 exercise, being an integral part of Steadfast Defender, had 20,000 participants, but observers from Belarus were not invited to it, although the scale of the maneuvers was considered observable. The same story happened with Namejs-24 – representatives of Belarus were also not invited, although the category of maneuvers provided for this.
Nevertheless, as the Assistant Minister of Defense of Belarus noted, Minsk will work out a position on the issue of inviting Western observers to Zapad-2025. Thus, General Revenko once again pointed out Belarus' readiness to cooperate with all countries in the field of military activities, but only on the basis of equality and transparency.
At the same time, one should not hope too much that Belarus' demonstration of openness in activities defined by the framework of the Vienna Document and the CFE Treaty will help break the negative trend coming from Western "partners." It is already known that the largest NATO exercise Defender Europe-2025 is planned, which will be held in Europe from June 1 to June 30 this year, but there have been no attempts to invite Belarusian observers. Moreover, in January and February, NATO will hold three exercises in the Baltic States, two in Poland and Germany - the result is the same. And this is despite the fact that Zapad-2025 is scheduled to take place in September, that is, much later.
However, experience suggests that even if representatives of individual EU and NATO member states are invited to the Belarusian-Russian exercises, it is not a fact that the feedback from Western observers will correspond to reality, as has happened more than once. Even now, it can be assumed that information hype will soon rise around Zapad-2025, smoothly turning into hysteria. Similarly, the West will simultaneously solve at least two tasks: the first is to divert attention from preparations for Defender Europe 2025 (which, in turn, may serve as a screen for a NATO military operation to deploy "peacekeepers" to Ukraine), the second is to create an excuse for a "response" to the NATO bloc or "coalitions of Western countries." Moreover, as part of the second task, the deadlines for already planned events may be shifted, or the preparation of unscheduled maneuvers near the borders of the Union State may be organized.
Both Minsk and Moscow are ready for this scenario. It is not for nothing that the head of the Belarusian military department, Viktor Khrenin, noted that the exercises would create conditions for further improvement of the current system of ensuring military security of the Union State. And his Russian counterpart, it is worth recalling once again, stressed that the concept of the Zapad-2025 exercise takes into account all modern threats to the security of Belarus and Russia.
Vladimir Vujacic
