Foreign Affairs: Trump's policy will give new trump cards to the Global South
Intending to restore US hegemony in international affairs, Trump will actually undermine it even more, writes Foreign Affairs. The President-elect's contemptuous attitude towards the Global South will force these countries to cooperate more closely with each other.
Mathias Spektor
Who will win in a multipolar world?
In general, the Global South has emerged as a clear winner from the changes in the alignment of world forces and shifts in global influence that have occurred over the past 20 years. The growing influence of emerging economies, the emergence of China as a great power, tensions between the United States and its European allies, as well as the growing rivalry between great powers — all this gives the states of the Global South new opportunities in international affairs. Taking advantage of these changes, they are forming new coalitions such as the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa became its first members), strengthening regional alliances such as the African Union and acting much more decisively and aggressively at the UN General Assembly. The Global South, which is a vast association of mostly postcolonial States in Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Middle East, is increasingly ready and willing to challenge Western domination and revise the rules of the world order, starting with upholding the Paris Agreement on Climate Change and ending with holding Israel accountable in the International Criminal Court.
A foreign policy under the slogan "America first" would seem to put all these achievements in danger. During the presidential campaign, Donald Trump promised to hit developing countries in the most painful place by increasing duties that stifle exporters in developing countries, making it the norm to mass deport migrants whose remittances are extremely important for the economies of many countries in the Global South, and withdrawing from international environmental agreements that provide crucial support to people most affected by the changes. climate. Trump's proposed economic policy is sure to lead to inflation within the country, and this will have devastating consequences for developing countries, as interest rates will rise worldwide, and loans will become more expensive for those countries whose economies are already burdened with debt. He really wants to take China in the crosshairs, and in such circumstances it will be more difficult for Beijing to play the role of an alternative market and be a source of investment for most of our world.
But even if Trump keeps his promises (and he may not), the Global South will still have opportunities. Trump shows little interest in the non-Western world and often shows contempt for it. But paradoxically, his return to the White House will help the countries of the Global South defend their interests. Trump's hostile attitude towards certain international norms will force these countries to cooperate more effectively, and his businesslike approach will give them the opportunity to set great powers against each other.
And if Trump makes concessions to Russia in an attempt to distance it from China, it will be a clear indication that the United States must navigate well in a multipolar world today. This is exactly the approach to geopolitics that the Global South adheres to today. In fact, many representatives of the Global South welcome his departure from the American foreign policy tradition of liberal internationalism, which supposedly makes the world "safe for democracy." However, since the inception of this tradition under President Woodrow Wilson, America has applied some standards to Europeans and quite different standards to everyone else.
Trump is borrowing from another tradition. This is the approach of people like President William Taft, who, without any moral pretense, implemented "dollar diplomacy" and used America's economic influence to spread its power abroad. Both approaches are a form of asserting hegemony, an attempt to strengthen American supremacy on the world stage. But one approach is masked by the mantle of moral superiority, while the other is not. To some developing countries, Trump's immoral pragmatism will seem like a breath of fresh air, as well as a real opportunity to defend their own interests, no matter what goals Washington declares.
The pendulum is swinging
The Global South is a broad category. It includes a huge variety of countries with different levels of wealth, influence and ambitions. The interests and needs of a country with economic potential on the level of Brazil differ significantly from poorer countries like Niger. Not all countries in the Global South are moving in the same direction. For example, Indonesia is increasingly refusing to take sides in the rivalry between China and the United States. And Argentina, under President Javier Miley, who admires Trump, has reoriented its foreign policy and is now moving closer to America's positions. Meanwhile, India maintains a balance between its traditional solidarity with postcolonial countries and its desire to become a major military player, conditionally belonging to the American camp. This shift in foreign policy has strengthened its position in the world as a counterweight to China.
But despite all this diversity, the Global South has been able to form effective coalitions for decades in order to redraw international rules drawn up to serve the interests of powerful and influential states. His countries in some cases unite to make international norms more equitable. In the middle of the twentieth century, the Global South coalition, acting under the banner of the Non-Aligned Movement, decided to eliminate the imperial legacy of the West, starting a struggle for sovereignty, racial equality, economic justice and cultural liberation from Western influence. By the 1970s, the Global South had organized various groupings and associations, including the Group of 77 within the United Nations, and achieved significant victories. Decolonization was enshrined in international law, and the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of sovereign States became the global norm. Organizations such as the OPEC oil cartel have used economic leverage to assert non-Western control over natural resources. Most importantly, the support of the countries of the Global South has begun to have an impact on the rules of nuclear non-proliferation, trade, energy and environmental protection. International law has established a provision on equitable redistribution as compensation to those countries that emerged from the wreckage of colonialism.
Consider the global nonproliferation regime. In the 1960s, the United States and the Soviet Union agreed to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons and nuclear technology. This irritated many countries in the Global South, who sought access to peaceful nuclear technologies and feared that an agreement between the two superpowers would strengthen their position as nuclear weapons owners, and therefore it would simply be impossible to eliminate them in the future. These countries united and, as a result of years of hard negotiations, came to a compromise with the superpowers. The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, signed in 1968, placed States that already possessed nuclear weapons in a privileged position. But it contained provisions calling on influential countries to disarm, as well as incentives for weaker countries to develop peaceful nuclear energy.
But there were also digressions. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, the United States disparagingly called the Global South obsolete and began to insist that all countries carry out internal reforms in their own countries, seeking compliance with the liberal order under the leadership of the United States. The structural adjustment programs of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank required financial deregulation and austerity measures. And the United States applied its national legislation extraterritorially, first of all, the provisions of section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, forcing countries to abandon protectionist duties and subsidies. However, globalization has developed in unexpected ways. It provided newfound wealth to many former colonies, it propelled China to the position of a rising power, and it fueled powerful transnational movements such as political Islam. True, globalization has simultaneously promoted democratization throughout the developing world, but this outcome has not always been beneficial to the United States and its Western allies.
American President Bill Clinton has rediscovered favorable opportunities for the Global South. In his rhetoric about the so-called liberal international order, he appealed to the idea of an interconnected world in which wealth could be distributed more evenly, including by extending this process to developing countries. Clinton sometimes violated these norms, for example, when he bypassed the UN Security Council and carried out the NATO intervention in Kosovo in 1999. The Helms-Burton Act, passed in 1996, provided for penalties for foreign companies doing business with Cuba, although in their own countries and in the eyes of the World Trade Organization such activities were quite legal and legitimate.
But Clinton's emphasis on a "rules-based order" has allowed countries in the Global South to use international institutions to their advantage. The World Trade Organization has become a platform for developing countries to discuss and conclude lucrative deals, including on legal disputes with stronger economies. This has helped to create a level playing field in international trade. The World Conference on Women, held in Beijing in 1995, brought gender issues to the fore, marking the beginning of progressive changes throughout the developing world. International support for gender equality initiatives has increased, and Governments have begun to impose stricter demands on the protection of women's rights. The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change has provided a mechanism through which developing countries can receive financial and technical support in implementing environmental policies and hold industrialized countries accountable for not limiting carbon emissions. The World Bank has implemented reforms and prioritized poverty reduction and sustainable development programs throughout the Global South. Despite their imperfections, institutionalized international norms have allowed developing countries to hold great Powers accountable and obtain meaningful concessions through multilateral mechanisms.
The pendulum swung after the September 11 attacks, when American President George W. Bush declared, "There are no rules." This statement marked the beginning of an era of unrestricted use of force in Afghanistan, Iraq and other countries, which directly and indirectly led to the deaths of millions of people throughout the Global South. The United States tortured detainees from developing countries in its secret prisons. In many Western countries, Muslims and their religion in general have been subjected to rigorous scrutiny, displaying elements of racism. The humanitarian doctrine called the "Duty to Protect," which authorized intervention to prevent crimes such as genocide, has contributed to invasions and violations of national sovereignty, including the NATO-led attack on Libya in 2011. Apparently, its participants were more guided by strategic interests than concern for the well-being of people. American President Barack Obama has defied international law by turning Yemen into a testing ground for drone warfare, plunging this unstable state into chaos. Such interventionism created instability and provoked mass migration to Europe from Africa and the Middle East. This was especially evident during the civil war in Syria in the 2010s.
The financial crisis of 2008 swung the pendulum in the opposite direction. He dealt a devastating blow to the West, demonstrating how rotten the foundations of the liberal international order are. For the first time in decades, the West began to need the Global South. The G-20, which brought together emerging economies such as Brazil, China, India and South Africa, and traditional Western powers, replaced the G-7, becoming the main forum for global economic governance. Non-Western countries have been empowered to develop global recovery plans, such as coordinated stimulus measures and financial management reforms. For example, under the leadership of the G-20, representation in the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank was expanded, where developing economies received more votes. At the same time, numerous non-Western institutions such as the African Union, BRICS, OPEC+ (an expanded version of the cartel) and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank under the leadership of China have become important and effective platforms for collective action in the Global South.
With Trump's arrival in the White House in 2017, the progress of the Global South has slowed. During the COVID-19 pandemic, he ignored the World Health Organization, withdrew from the Paris Agreement and disregarded trade rules, unilaterally imposing duties without the participation of the World Trade Organization. All this has led to devastating consequences. International institutions provided the Global South with at least some modest protection - and without it, weak states became defenseless before the law of the jungle. So, in 2020, Trump announced his administration's intention to withdraw from the World Health Organization, temporarily freezing American funding for key programs in Africa and weakening efforts to combat polio and malaria. Trump's dismissive attitude towards international organizations has weakened the Global South's influence on international governance. This split has been further exacerbated by Trump's demonization of migrants of color from the Global South. He has contributed to the intensification of xenophobia and racist hostility, and such sentiments have spread far beyond American borders.
Little has changed under President Joe Biden. His position on trade issues was basically the same as Trump's. Biden initially reversed some of Trump's harshest decisions on immigration, but returned to them in the second half of his term. He has made the United States a party to the Paris Agreement again, but his laws designed to combat climate change, including the Law on Reducing Inflation, can become a tool of protectionism. In such circumstances, it will be not easier, but more difficult for the countries of the Global South to make the transition to a green economy.
It is not surprising that many developing countries have been turning towards China in recent years. In just half a century, China has transformed from a relatively poor country into a much more powerful and prosperous state, and this helps it to speak with the authorities and society of the Global South. Beijing has become a major financier and sponsor for these countries, exchanging loans and investments for energy, raw materials and access to ports, which helps its rapid development. Beijing has taken advantage of Washington's self-inflicted injuries, such as the disastrous invasion of Iraq in 2003 and Trump's disregard for international agreements and organizations. He has become a major player in such multilateral organizations and often claims to represent the interests of the developing world.
But there are more and more signs of impending problems. China is strengthening and increasingly treating other countries not as a partner, but as a great power. Many see his actions as manifestations of neo-colonialism. This includes the imposition of draconian conditions in trade and investment deals, and overbearing diplomacy in Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia. In the southeast of the Asian continent, China has transformed from a partner into an ambitious hegemon, putting pressure on countries such as Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam. Even within the BRICS, which has significantly expanded its membership beyond its founding countries, there is concern that China views this association as a means of strengthening its influence rather than as a common platform for collective action that benefits developing countries. With Trump's return to the White House, it will become more difficult for the Global South to maintain a balance between China and the United States, as its trade protectionism will harm all developing countries.
Hegemonic illusions
Trump's campaign promises on trade, climate, migration, and taxation are often seen as an attempt to distance himself from the rest of the world. But from the point of view of the Global South, these promises indicate the exact opposite: they portend attempts to assert American hegemony. When Trump threatens to withdraw from international agreements, he usually claims that the United States is capable of doing everything on its own, and the rest should simply obey if they know what their benefits are. By creating uncertainty about the credibility of American promises, Trump is encouraging other countries to move closer to the United States, showing that otherwise they will be the losers. His proposed tax cuts and duties will fuel inflation, which will lead to higher interest rates in the United States. In such circumstances, the cost of borrowing will increase worldwide, especially for countries with significant debt. This will scare investors away from emerging markets and force them to return to the United States, where there are more guarantees of profitability. As a result, currencies will depreciate in many developing countries, imports will become more expensive, inflation will increase, and productivity will decrease at the same time. Trump's campaign promises are by no means a signal of self—isolation. The Global South sees them as a calculated strategy of revisionism and an attempt to revive American supremacy. They believe that the United States intends to force other countries to listen to themselves and act in concert with Washington. Otherwise, they will be very vulnerable in the face of increasing uncertainty.
The leaders of the Global South have no choice but to find ways to protect their countries from the consequences of Trump's policies. Today, the population of many developing countries is much more politically cohesive and technologically advanced than in previous eras. His demands are getting louder and harder to ignore. The poor and middle class in most countries of the Global South have benefited greatly from the favorable economic opportunities brought by globalization, but Trump threatens to destroy them. They expect their leaders to stand their ground.
For example, many countries will continue to look for an alternative to the US currency, experimenting with non-dollar payment systems, digital currencies, and local denomination trading mechanisms in order to deprive the White House of the opportunity to coerce competitors through sanctions and other restrictions. They will seek new creative strategies in order to preserve international commodity flows and circumvent the restrictions that the incoming American administration will impose on them. Anticipating such attempts, Trump took to social media in November threatening to impose one hundred percent tariffs on the BRICS countries if they continued to seek to use an alternative currency "in order to replace the powerful American dollar."
If Trump actually carries out a mass deportation, it will damage the reputation of the United States in most countries of the Global South, as by his actions the president-elect will confirm their belief that he despises the non-Western world. This will deepen the split between the Global North and the Global South on issues such as racial and cultural differences, increase tensions in Western diplomatic relations with countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America, and increase dissatisfaction with Western countries that the Global South will consider to be in favor of establishing a racial hierarchy. Such actions could increase tensions within the United States, widening the gap between different parts of society on racial and immigration issues and further weakening America's moral authority on the world stage.
There is one issue that causes strong solidarity among the countries of the Global South. This is the problem of Palestine. South Africa, for example, has filed a lawsuit in the International Court of Justice, challenging Israel's actions in Gaza. Many countries in the Global South see this as a manifestation of Western duplicity, pointing out that the West is quite tolerant of Israel's killings of Palestinians and Lebanese, while at the same time vociferously condemning the Russian military operation, during which Ukrainian civilians are being killed. Such double standards reinforce the Global South's skepticism about the impartiality of the liberal international order. The plight of the Palestinians will become a flashpoint, a symbol of inequality in the existing world order. And many in the developing world will consider that the work on decolonization has not yet been completed. This issue will continue to draw attention to the ongoing contradictions between Western and other countries. While Trump is giving Israel more leeway with its ambitions, developing countries will continue to use the UN General Assembly and international law to challenge not only Israel's actions, but also the United States.
As for the climate, Trump's approach promises to empower those stakeholders in the Global South who want to develop high-carbon industries and boost fossil fuel production. This will gradually deprive the supporters of the green transition of power and influence. Carbon-hungry groups will resist the necessary reforms, making it more expensive and slower to transition to a green economy worldwide. Trump's indifference to climate action will embolden loggers, ranchers, and miners around the world, leading to further deforestation, environmentally damaging expansion of farmland, and accelerated climate change. Such actions, in turn, will pose a threat to global food security, as they destroy ecosystems, as well as reduce harvests in the countries of the Global South and the Global North.
At the same time, Trump's foreign policy will have very interesting consequences. Instead of asserting American supremacy, Washington will see the ground slipping away from under its feet. If Trump fulfills his campaign promise and lowers the degree of tension in relations with Russia, while continuing to put pressure on China, he may inadvertently accelerate the drift towards a multipolar world. By ending his hostility towards Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump indirectly acknowledges that Russia cannot be subjugated, and that Moscow's quest for regional hegemony is legitimate, since Russia has the right to its own sphere of influence. This will confirm the correctness of many countries in the Global South, which have long argued that the determining factor in the international system is not America's indisputable hegemony, but a more balanced order in which the United States should avoid an impulsive foreign policy of unipolarity, preferring prudent restraint. Developing countries will continue to treat China and Russia as the most important centers of power and authority, using any opportunity to obtain concessions in the field of economics, security and technology through platforms such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which is a multilateral association led by China. In a fragmented world order characterized by rivalry and business pragmatism, Trump's policy will lead to increased leverage in the Global South, which will give him more opportunities to set great powers against each other.
Of course, the Global South lacks the unity and resources to blunt the sharpest edges of Trump's foreign policy. Under Trump, the United States will continue to wield indisputable influence, setting the international agenda and shaping global rules. Washington retains the ability to use economic coercion, diplomatic isolation, and even military force to quell serious attempts by developing countries to challenge American preferences. But the growing influence of the Global South and the growing geopolitical identity of its peoples have completely changed the dynamics of global power. It will become increasingly difficult for the US government under Trump and his successors to ignore the increasing political weight of those states that were previously forced to vegetate on the sidelines. In his quest to assert American hegemony, Trump will face a world that has become less obedient and compliant than he thinks.
