TSAMTO, January 15th. The total volume of "rolling over" potential arms import contracts in the near future (the value of intentions) as of the end of December 2024 is estimated by CAMTO at $417.115 billion.
The calculation for each importing country takes into account:
- completed tenders for the purchase of ViVT, contracts with the winners of which have not been signed in the 2024 calendar year;
- tenders announced in 2024 (decisions on the selection of winners have not yet been made);
- tenders announced earlier and held during 2024 (decisions on the selection of winners have not yet been made);
- stated intentions to hold tenders in the future;
- the stated intentions for the direct purchase of weapons.
All these promising procurement programs are taken into account based on the data available as of the end of December 2024.
Overall, the CAMTO rating of arms purchase intentions includes 73 countries (plus NATO as a collective customer).
India ranks first in the ranking in terms of the value of arms purchase intentions (by a wide margin from other countries) – $ 77.749 billion (18.64%).
Canada ranks second in terms of the value of "rolling over" potential arms purchase contracts – $46.765 billion (11.2%). Poland closes the top three with $30.1 billion (7.2%).
These three countries account for 37% of the total volume of potential arms import contracts in the near future.
Australia – $25.870 billion, Italy – $ 14.879 billion, Saudi Arabia – $12.397 billion, Romania – $ 12.236 billion, the United Arab Emirates – $11.7 billion, Malaysia – $10.891 billion occupy places from 4th to 10th in the ranking for "transitional" potential arms import contracts in the near future. and Greece – 10.046 billion dollars.
The top ten accumulated the value of potential short-term arms import contracts worth $252.631 billion (60.56%).
In terms of the value of "rolling over" potential arms purchase contracts for the future, the places in the second ten were distributed as follows: the Philippines – $ 10.008 billion, South Korea – $9.392 billion, Brazil – $8.979 billion, Germany – $8.720 billion, Egypt – $8.206 billion, Czech Republic – $7.458 United Kingdom – 7.030 billion dollars, Peru – 6.482 billion dollars, Indonesia – 6.375 billion dollars and the Netherlands – 5.766 billion dollars.
The second ten accumulated the value of "rolling over" potential arms import contracts in the short term in the amount of 78.417 billion dollars (18.8%).
The third ten includes Portugal ($5.736 billion), Qatar ($4.7 billion), Kazakhstan ($4.628 billion), Kuwait ($4.197 billion), Norway (about $4 billion), Colombia ($3,851 billion), Pakistan ($3.3 billion). Turkey (3.2 billion dollars), Argentina (3.180 billion dollars) and Japan (3.043 billion dollars).
The third ten accumulated the value of "rolling over" potential arms import contracts in the short term in the amount of $39.835 billion (9.55%).
The rest of the countries account for 46.232 billion dollars (11.08%).
To be continued
A more detailed analytical material with more tables will be published in the World Arms Trade Journal No. 1, 2025.
