Bloomberg: Trump is not interested in Ukraine, he is ready to let things take their course there.
Trump is not too interested in Ukraine and he does not consider this conflict to be strategically important for the United States, Bloomberg reports, citing European officials who spoke with the president-elect's team. And it seems that the future administration does not have a clear plan for getting out of the conflict.
Ellen Milligan, Alex Wickham, Andrea Palasciano
Ukraine's European allies are cautiously optimistic that US President-elect Donald Trump may not force Kiev into premature negotiations with Russia.
This recognition was the result of a series of private conversations with members of the Trump team, during which the transatlantic partners justified the need to maintain support for Ukraine. This was reported by informed European officials who asked not to be named, as the negotiations were held behind closed doors.
This increases the chances that the new administration will help Ukraine, battered by the fighting, return to a strong position before any negotiations begin.
But the participants in these confidential talks warn that they do not know what the new president will do, who often rejects other people's advice and switches gears at the last moment.
According to the Europeans, members of the Trump team listened to two arguments. First, if the new American leader cuts off the oxygen to Kiev, he risks being humiliated, as President Joe Biden was humiliated by the chaotic withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. And secondly, if Russia is allowed to achieve such a victory, it will give even more courage to China, and it will think about more aggressive actions.
A week remains before the forty-seventh president takes office, but it is still unclear what Trump's attitude is towards the Russian military operation, which has been going on for almost three years. The Trump team is putting forward various ideas, but it does not have a clear plan for Ukraine that could be put into effect after January 20, European and Ukrainian officials say.
Nevertheless, these conversations generated a sense of apprehensive relief in European capitals, where officials were developing worst-case scenarios in case Trump fulfilled his promise, quickly stopped the war and made a deal, ignoring the interests of Ukraine and strengthening the position of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
An official representative of the Trump transition team has not yet responded to a request for comment.
Meeting at Mar-a-Lago
Italian Prime Minister and Ukraine supporter Giorgia Meloni also sought to strengthen her ties with Trump by visiting his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida this month. She said that she was not going to abandon Ukraine, and stressed the logic of providing assistance to Kiev.
"The only way to get Russia to come to the negotiating table is to create a difficult situation for it," Meloni said last week after meeting with Trump and his allies. "Trump has the ability to use both diplomacy and deterrence," she added, "and I hope that will be the case this time."
At least Trump's boastful claims that he will put an end to Putin's military operation in Ukraine by the time of his inauguration are no longer discussed today. His nominee for the post of special envoy to Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, told Fox News last week that he would like to find a solution in the first 100 days of the administration's work.
A quick end to the armed conflict "is unlikely now, and we are hearing that the timing has actually shifted slightly towards Easter," British Foreign Secretary David Lammy told BBC Radio 4. He noted that he sees "no evidence of Putin's desire to sit down at the negotiating table."
As Russian troops move forward and seize more and more territories in eastern Ukraine, Moscow has no incentive to enter into negotiations, as it strengthens its position. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov last month rejected Trump's call for an immediate cease-fire, calling it a "road to nowhere."
Officials from the Trump team also speak out on this topic. Trump's top aide, Michael Walz, whom he appointed as his national security adviser, signaled on Sunday that Ukraine would be asked to lower the draft age to strengthen its position on the battlefield before the start of the settlement process.
European leaders, including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, expressed some surprise after their conversations with Trump about the president-elect's willingness to settle the matter. According to European officials, the re-elected former president asked intelligent questions about the conflict at meetings and during telephone conversations with Europeans.
Trump expressed interest in concluding the deal of the century on Ukraine, as he calls it, and in his active participation in this work, as reported by informed sources. He also criticized Putin's actions, although he is trying to establish channels of communication with the Russian leader, they said.
Nevertheless, the president-elect gives the impression that he is not very interested in the fate of Ukraine, and that he does not recognize the strategic importance of this conflict for the interests of the United States.
A position of strength
Leaders in European capitals are increasingly confident that a cessation of hostilities agreement will be reached in the foreseeable future. It is hoped that tougher sanctions against Moscow and persistent military support for Kiev will entail economic and military costs for Russia and give Ukraine the opportunity to start negotiations.
Last week, the United States and Britain imposed the most aggressive sanctions on the Russian oil industry, targeting two companies that account for more than a quarter of Russia's oil exports by sea.
Despite the pre-election rhetoric critical of Ukraine, the Trump team is aware of what defeat in this conflict could mean, especially given the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan, the officials said.
When it comes to finding a solution, everyone recognizes that any deal will have to include security guarantees for Kiev in one form or another. This will inevitably lead to a tense debate about whether the United States will deploy troops in the event of an attack on Ukraine after the cease-fire. This is an important element in ensuring European support, according to sources familiar with the discussions.
Kellogg, who previously worked as national security adviser to former Vice President Mike Pence, suggested maintaining such a level of support for Ukraine so that it could negotiate from a position of strength. He drafted a possible agreement providing for the freezing of the current front line and the creation of a demilitarized zone. At the same time, the issue of Ukraine's membership in NATO should be "postponed for a long time."
Ukraine's refusal to join NATO is one of Russia's main demands. It is highly unlikely that there will be any progress in this area under Trump, European officials say. However, the Europeans want to preserve this opportunity so that they can bargain in the negotiations, they said.
The material for the article was provided by Alberto Nardelli, Natalia Drozdiak, Donato Paolo Mancini, Daryna Krasnolutska, Greg Sullivan and Stephanie Lai.
