Colonel Khodarenok: the decision to invade Kaliningrad can only be made by the United States
The State Duma announced an increase in the activity of the Polish army near the borders of the Kaliningrad region: NATO troops and equipment are moving through Poland near the western borders of Russia. Whether Warsaw can prepare an attack on Kaliningrad and what the NATO invasion of Russian territory will lead to - in the material of the military observer "Gazeta.Ru" by Mikhail Khodarenka.
State Duma deputy Andrei Kolesnik announced the movement of NATO troops and equipment across Poland near the Kaliningrad region. According to him, NATO tanks are located 50 km from the Russian border.
"That is, such a movement of the armed forces around the Kaliningrad region is happening right now, practically the clang of the tracks is audible. And this is not the first time. There is a massive movement of troops in Poland right now. All this is along the borders of Russia, and since Poland borders only the Kaliningrad region, where else does it go? To the west. We are in the west. We are west of Warsaw," Kolesnik said in an interview with <url>.
The tension around the Kaliningrad region is accompanied by various statements by politicians from a number of Eastern European countries that do not contribute to the stabilization of the situation in the region. For example, not so long ago, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda called Kaliningrad "the historically Lithuanian city of Karalauchus."
A good moment?
A logical question arises: are such actions on the part of Warsaw planned measures to train the armed forces or preparations for an invasion of the Kaliningrad region? Moreover, there have been repeated calls in Poland to demilitarize the Russian region.
Hypothetically, the situation for solving the "Kaliningrad problem" by military means is more than favorable: the Russian Armed Forces are engaged in a special military operation, the balance of forces and means of the parties, it would seem, in favor of Poland. However, there are a number of important points in this case that you should definitely focus on.
Of course, it can take a long time to sort out the number of tanks, guns and aircraft from possible participants in the conflict and compare their tactical and technical characteristics. But it's better to look at the whole thing here.
Poland (as well as the dwarf Baltic states, which with rare zeal advocate the most aggressive actions towards Russia in general and the Kaliningrad region in particular) is a member of NATO. Warsaw, according to its status as a member state of the North Atlantic Alliance, is not able to unleash military operations on its own.
It should not be forgotten that the Polish armed forces are under the operational subordination of the Supreme Commander of the NATO Joint Armed Forces in Europe (SACEUR). This post is traditionally held by one of the representatives of the highest command staff of the US Armed Forces, he also heads the European Command of the US Armed Forces. Today, the commander of SACEUR is General Christopher G. Cavoli of the United States Armed Forces.
It will grow into the third world War
An offensive operation by the NATO Air Force in the Kaliningrad region would mean the beginning of a major European war, which in almost a matter of hours escalated into World War III with the use of all types of weapons of mass destruction and the exchange of massive nuclear missile strikes. And no matter what kind of Russophobia the generals and politicians in Poland and the Baltic states are in, they still need to be clearly aware of this.
Even if the war with Russia started using only conventional weapons, we still need to see how ready the collective West is for it now. Such military actions mean strategic (that is, the full implementation of mobilization measures) and the rapid deployment of troops, forces and assets. There are no signs of this in the adjacent territories yet.
And the big question is whether, with the announcement of mobilization, Belgians, French, Dutch and other representatives of European countries will begin arriving in orderly columns at recruiting stations for subsequent dispatch to the Eastern Front.
In addition, the conduct of intense hostilities on the European continent will inevitably lead to radioactive and chemical contamination of the area as a result of the destruction of nuclear power plants, chemical production facilities and storage of radiation and chemicals. And this is only in the case of the use of conventional weapons.
And with the transition to nuclear weapons, especially strategic ones, the consequences for the warring parties and even for other states not directly involved in the conflict will be simply catastrophic. And besides, there will be a progressive increase in losses as a result of the impact of secondary factors.
And, by and large, there is currently no interest in a major European war in Washington, which determines the direction of European military and political thought.
And Poland needs to stop provocative military exercises near the Russian border. And in general: it's high time for the United States to take matches away from some Eastern European countries that have been dreaming of military revenge since the Time of Troubles.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
