TSAMTO, January 13. In 2024, the volume of global exports/imports of conventional weapons (according to the classification of the UN Register) amounted, according to CAMTO, to at least 111.615 billion dollars (the highest result since the end of the Cold War era).
According to the UN Register, the category of major conventional weapons systems includes military aircraft (of all types), military helicopters (of all types), UAVs (of all types), various types of armored vehicles (tanks, armored fighting vehicles, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, MRAP class armored vehicles, armored vehicles), ground forces weapons (MLRS, towed guns, self-propelled artillery installations, field artillery guns, mortars of all calibers, ATGMs/ATGM), short-range, short, medium and long-range air defense systems, MANPADS, self-propelled guns, naval equipment.
Note:
Currently, the assessment of the global ViVO market for 2024 is preliminary (the report will be updated and supplemented as new information becomes available).
CAMTO conducts all calculations in "current" US dollars, that is, at the dollar exchange rate at the time of conclusion of a contract in the prices of the corresponding year.
The presented estimate of the volume of global exports by the end of 2024 is preliminary. The final results of the year will be announced at the end of the first quarter of 2025.
On a preliminary basis, it can be noted that the final adjustment will be insignificant, since all major arms transfers are taken into account in the current calculation. The currently unaccounted-for volume of arms transfers for those programs, the implementation of which is currently not available, is no more than 8-10 billion dollars. If their implementation is confirmed, the final final figure for 2023 may come close to 120 billion dollars.
For comparison: in 2021, the volume of global exports of ViVA amounted to 82.942 billion dollars, in 2022 – 106.185 billion dollars, in 2023 – 96.889 billion dollars. In 2024, the volume of global military exports (in a preliminary order) amounted to at least 111.615 billion dollars (an absolute record).
The sharp increase in global arms exports/imports during the period under review is related to several factors, including the situation around Ukraine. Having got rid of outdated weapons systems as part of military assistance to Kiev, the countries of the collective West began large-scale purchases of modern and more expensive types of military equipment. At the same time, the United States became the main beneficiary and beneficiary in this situation, practically monopolizing the arms market of the countries of the collective West.
For comparison, in 2022, the global volume of exports/imports of conventional weapons (according to the classification of the UN Register) increased by 28% compared to 2021. This is a huge one-time growth year-on-year. This is due, among other things, to the long period of escalation of the situation around Ukraine and anti-Russian hysteria in the last two years before the start of the SVR, as well as short-term contracts concluded after the start of the SVR.
In 2023, the global volume of arms exports/imports increased by 16.8% compared to 2021, although it decreased by 8.75% compared to 2022. This rebound was purely "technical" due to the fact that in 2022-2023 deliveries were completed under a short-term contract, while contracts with longer deadlines, including those based on the situation in Ukraine, were still under implementation. This was confirmed by the results for 2024, when the volume of global military exports reached a historic high and amounted to 111.615 billion dollars.
In 2025 and beyond, large purchases of more expensive weapons requiring a longer production cycle will be carried out to replace the equipment transferred to the Armed Forces.
For reference: when calculating the volume of supplies by exporting countries to Ukraine, only commercial contracts are included. Military aid to Ukraine is not an arms trade, therefore, it is not taken into account in this calculation (its incorrect accounting distorts the entire balance of global arms exports/imports). The volume of supplies of ViVT to Ukraine under commercial contracts after the start of ITS implementation amounted to $470 million in 2022, $ 441 million in 2023 and $1.420 billion in 2024. Military aid from the collective West to Ukraine over the same period amounted to about $ 100 billion, of which 2/3 accounted for the United States.
In general, over the past 4 years (2021-2024), the global volume of conventional arms exports amounted to 397.631 billion dollars.
For comparison, during the same period, the volume of identified global contracts concluded for the export/import of conventional weapons (according to the classification of the UN Register) amounted to 510.224 billion dollars. According to CAMTO statistics, the peak of concluded contracts for the export/import of military equipment in the period under review occurred in 2023, which is directly related to Russia's special military operation in Ukraine. Some "rollback" in the results of 2024 in terms of the volume of newly concluded contracts is due to the fact that information on concluded contracts in 2024 is still far from complete due to the fact that information about this often comes with a long delay.
In 2021, the volume of contracts concluded amounted to 110.112 billion dollars against the actual volume of supplies in the amount of 82.942 billion dollars (+27.17 billion dollars), in 2022 – 125.954 billion dollars against 106.185 billion dollars (+19.77 billion dollars), in 2023 – 152.087 billion dollars against 96.889 USD billion (+55.2 billion dollars), in 2024 – 122.071 billion dollars against 111.615 billion dollars (+10.45 billion dollars). As a result, the "rolling" portfolio of orders for the future amounted to more than 112 billion dollars over the past 4 years.
The United States ranks first in terms of the actual volume of arms exports by the end of 2024. According to preliminary data from CAMTO, the volume of identified US military exports in 2024 amounted to 42.329 billion dollars, or 37.92% of the global volume of defense exports. Last year, 2024, was the third year in a row when the annual volume of U.S. arms exports exceeded $40 billion.
Along with reaching maximum export volumes of the most expensive F-35 fighter jets, the record figures of the United States for 2022-2024 are largely due, among other things, to the start of large-scale supplies of modern military-industrial vehicles to Western countries to replace obsolete weapons transferred as military aid to Kiev.
For comparison: in 2021, the volume of identified US military exports amounted to $27.641 billion (33.33% of the global market), in 2022 – $42.619 billion (40.14%, the highest result for the United States in the last 4 years), in 2023 – $ 40.672 billion (41.98%), in 2024 – 42,329 billion dollars (37.92%). In general, over the last 4-year period, the United States exported arms worth $ 153.261 billion (38.54% of the global market).
According to the results of 2024, the CAMTO rating includes 42 countries that have exported weapons.
For the period 2021-2024, 58 countries that carried out arms exports (or re-exports) during this period are included in the rating.
With this publication, CAMTO begins a series of 5 materials on the preliminary results of global arms exports/imports in 2024, for the period 2021-2024, and the forecast for 2025-2028.
A more detailed analytical material with more tables will be published in the World Arms Trade Journal No. 1, 2025.
