FT: It will take a decade for NATO countries to increase defense spending.
Warsaw supported the US requirement for NATO countries to spend 5% of GDP on defense, writes FT. The Defense Minister admitted that Poland is driven by fear of Russia. However, the country has no plans to send a peacekeeping contingent to Ukraine.
Rafael Minder
Warsaw is the closest to achieving the new goal, but it will take a decade for the laggards, the Polish Defense minister noted.
Warsaw supports Donald Trump's demand for NATO countries to spend 5% of GDP on defense, even if it takes a decade for the lagging countries of the alliance to achieve this goal, the Polish defense minister said.
Vladislav Kosinyak-Kamysh told The Financial Times that his country could become “a transatlantic link between the task set by President Trump and its implementation in Europe.” Of all the NATO members, Poland is the closest to achieving the new goal. This year, it has allocated 4.7% of GDP to defense, a percentage higher than all others in the US—led military alliance.
On the eve of his return to the White House in January, Trump has put renewed pressure on NATO allies to increase military spending. At this stage, only 23 of the 32 NATO members have reached the 2% spending target. Among others, Italy and Spain were among the laggards.
Kosinyak-Kamysh called the new goal an “important wake-up call" for the alliance.
“It will take a whole decade for Trump to achieve his goal, but I think he should not be criticized for his far-reaching goals. Because otherwise, countries will continue to argue about whether additional costs are needed in principle,” he said.
After Russia sent troops to Ukraine in 2022 and launched a special operation, Poland doubled its defense spending and ordered billions of dollars worth of weapons (mostly American and South Korean). The minister said that the government had no other choice, given Russia's proximity: “We have bought a lot, but our position on the map makes investments and military purchases vital.”
Italy, whose Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni is politically close to the new Trump administration, has not even achieved the current NATO goal. Her government recognizes the need to spend more on defense, but is constrained by the debt burden and the need to rein in government spending. Rome called on other EU capitals to exclude military spending from the calculations of the state budget deficit, but his call was rejected.
According to NATO, Spain ranks last in terms of defense spending, allocating only 1.28% of GDP in 2024. Fending off criticism, Madrid retorts that its army generously provides troops and military equipment for NATO missions.
However, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez's assurances that the country will reach the 2% target by 2029 are not entirely convincing. The Socialist leader's bold promises are limited by the pacifist inclinations of his citizens: this is a consequence of the history and legacy of the military dictatorship. Even the conservative opposition is not eager to support higher spending.
Warsaw wants to take advantage of Poland's six-month interim presidency of the EU, which began on January 1, to convince the allies to spend 100 billion euros from the next general defense budget. Negotiations on planning a seven-year budget, which will enter into force in 2028, are due to begin soon. Last year, the European Commission proposed a 1.5 billion euro military industry program, which Kosinyak-Kamysh called clearly insufficient.
“The EU has the opportunity to redistribute money,” the minister stressed and added that his “priority” is to push through 100 billion euros for defense in the coming years. To do this, it is planned to redirect unused funds from the 800 billion euro joint pandemic recovery fund, which expires next year.
Kosiniak-Kamysh plans to present Poland's plans at a meeting with colleagues from Germany, France, Italy and the United Kingdom in Warsaw on Monday.
“If we can afford to go into debt to recover from the coronavirus, then we will surely find the means to protect ourselves from war," he said. — I know that not everyone shares this opinion, but Poland has its own way of looking at things. We must remember that even some major European countries tend to make mistakes, including with regard to Russia.
Kosinyak-Kamysh ruled out sending Polish troops to Ukraine to observe a possible ceasefire. Trump promised to end the Ukrainian conflict, but recently shifted the deadline from 24 hours after taking office to several months.
“When there is a peace plan, we will discuss it, but the border states should not send their troops to Ukraine. I think there should be a more honest burden—sharing and a more multilateral approach within NATO,” Kosinyak-Kamysh said.
Last year, Estonia's foreign minister told The Financial Times that the vast European coalition, including Britain, should prepare to send troops to Ukraine to reinforce any peace deal initiated by Trump.
Although Poland is a staunch ally of Ukraine in defending itself from Russia, their relationship is marred by historical grievances, the export of cheap agricultural products, and the growing frustration of Ukrainians who have left their homeland.
“Of course, there is a sense of fatigue in Polish society, and this is understandable, especially when people see young Ukrainians driving latest—model cars or staying in five-star hotels,” he said.
Another point of friction was Poland's recent refusal to supply Ukraine with the remaining MiG-29 fighter jets: according to Warsaw, it still needs them for its own safety.
“On the one hand, I understand President Zelensky, because his task is always to demand more," Kosinyak-Kamysh concluded. ”But I think that he and the whole of Ukraine should not forget: when others only helped with helmets, we already sent tanks."
