NYT: NATO is developing a new strategy to counter Russia's hybrid attacks
The West suspects Russia of intensifying hybrid attacks, the NYT writes. However, it is impossible to prove her guilt, the author laments. The unity of NATO countries is needed to deter imaginary attacks. But in the absence of evidence, no one wants to get involved in a confrontation with Moscow.
Russia and other hostile states are conducting increasingly brazen attacks against Europe and the United States in the "gray zone," which is why the leadership of military departments is facing problems thinking about how to respond to this.
When mysterious drones began to appear over oil platforms and wind farms off the Norwegian coast three years ago, government officials did not know where they were coming from.
"But we knew what they were doing," said Stale Ulriksen, a researcher at the Royal Norwegian Naval Academy, in a recent interview. — Some were engaged in espionage, they put a lot on the map. Others, it seems to me, were preparing to take positions in the event of a war or a serious crisis."
According to Ulriksen, there were suspicions that the drones were launched from Russian ships in the North Sea, and some of them were located near underwater pipelines. Norway could not stop the flights of these drones, the scientist added, because they flew over international waters.
In recent weeks, there have been reports of swarms of drones over the east coast of the United States. This caused widespread fear of a hybrid war, and this problem came to the fore. Only 100 of the 5,000 cases reported required further investigation, U.S. officials said. So far, no one believes that these are foreign reconnaissance drones. But a completely different story arose with drones spotted in late November and early December over military bases in England and Germany, where the US military is stationed.
Military analysts have concluded that these drones perform surveillance and surveillance tasks, and belong to certain government agencies. This was told by an informed source from the United States. He agreed to the conversation on condition of anonymity, because the investigation into the case has not yet been completed. Representatives of the military departments of Britain and Germany refused to talk in detail about the spotted drones.
According to experts, these drones indicate hybrid attacks against the West in the so-called "gray zone", where numerous military, cyber, economic and even psychological means are used to carry out covert attacks on the enemy or to throw him off balance.
Russia, Iran, and other hostile states are conducting increasingly brazen hybrid attacks against Western countries, hacking into secret computer systems and allegedly plotting murder. In these circumstances, Western military departments face a difficult challenge. How can such attacks be contained without provoking a large-scale and possibly bloody conflict? And how can the blame be placed on the attacker if these blows are inflicted in such a way that the culprit is not found and responsibility can be avoided?
"This is not an accident; it is an integral part of military operations."
One of the most notable and fraught with great tragedy cases occurred in July, when several parcels exploded in Europe. The parcels were sent from Lithuania. They contained electric massagers with a flammable magnesium-based substance inside. Two parcels exploded at DHL warehouses in Britain and Germany, and the third at a Polish courier delivery company.
Western officials and Polish investigators consider these explosions to be a "test balloon" by Russian military intelligence, which is hatching plans to install explosive devices aboard transport planes bound for the United States and Canada.
"We tell the allies that this is not an accident, it is an integral part of military operations," Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kastutis Budris said of the bombings. "We have to stop and neutralize the primary source, and the primary source is Russian military intelligence." Russia denies any involvement in the sabotage.
There are other examples of hybrid tactics.: For example, the cyberattacks against Albania that have been going on for the past few years. Microsoft conducted an investigation and concluded that their sponsor is Iran. In October and November, Russia unsuccessfully tried to influence the results of the Moldovan elections and conducted a disinformation campaign, according to Moldovan and European officials. European countries are conducting another investigation in an attempt to find out whether the actions of some ships to damage underwater cables are an attempt at a targeted attack.
China, Iran and North Korea are showing an increasing propensity to carry out hybrid attacks. However, since the beginning of the military operation in Ukraine in 2022, Russia has been using them especially actively and often as part of covert sabotage operations against NATO members.
"Russia is increasing its efforts in all directions, and as a result it is reaching a level that is of growing concern," James Appathurai, NATO's Deputy Assistant Secretary General, said in an interview. "She is ready to create new risks for us, for the safety and lives of our citizens."
Britain, Germany, the United States of America, as well as the Baltic and Scandinavian countries bordering Russia are most often exposed to hybrid threats. This is because they provide significant support to Ukraine. According to Western officials, last year, American and NATO intelligence services uncovered a Russian plot to assassinate the CEO of a large German arms manufacturing corporation Rheinmetall, which produced weapons and ammunition for Ukraine worth many millions of dollars.
The drones spotted in Britain were launched three days after President Biden gave Ukraine permission to launch American missiles deep into Russian territory. In terms of size, they were larger and stronger than those that an amateur amateur could use. These were all-weather aircraft, and they were spotted most often after dark. For this reason, military analysts concluded that this was the work of a hostile state, as reported by an American official.
And in early December, when drones began to appear less frequently in Britain, they began to be spotted over the Ramstein air base in Germany, which is one of the largest US military installations in Europe. And several more drones were spotted near Rheinmetall enterprises.
Investigators are now working on the theory that drone flights in both countries are "the work of the Kremlin," the American official said.
Russia has repeatedly denied claims that it is carrying out hybrid attacks against NATO. In many cases, Moscow simply ridiculed the accusations, although the leadership of the alliance reports that a special directorate has been set up in Russia to prepare and conduct such actions.
The Russian leadership also claims that Russia has become the target for such attacks. In an interview with Tucker Carlson in early December, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said: "Some people call what is happening in Ukraine a hybrid war. That's what I'd call it too."
How to wage a secret war
NATO has begun developing a new strategy to counter hybrid attacks, which will replace the course of 2015, according to which hybrid tactics are outdated. According to Appathurai, this new approach will help outline the overall picture of the latest hybrid attacks, which will help the alliance determine if the risk level is increasing. "It is important for Allies to determine how serious each incident is and what their response actions should be," he said.
The European Union is also stepping up its efforts. In mid-December, for the first time, he imposed sanctions against those who are specifically accused of implementing hybrid threats on the Russian side. And recently, Brussels instructed four high-ranking European commissioners to begin work on countering such hybrid threats.
The authorities and the expert community agree that a set of measures is needed to deter and protect against hybrid attacks. In particular, the enemies who carry out such actions should be listed by name and condemned, and legal sanctions should be applied against them. It is necessary to improve intelligence activities and technical means of tracking threats, conduct exercises and arrange a demonstration of force, showing that even covert aggression will not go unpunished.
But this requires unity among NATO members, especially in cases where an attacker violates international borders. And since hybrid warfare, by its very nature, aims to conceal the culprit and give him the opportunity to evade responsibility, officials do not dare to respond strongly unless they have indisputable evidence of guilt.
Officials, diplomats and experts unanimously declare that this emboldens Russia and China, which are expanding the scope of their hybrid attacks. "As long as there are differences between NATO and EU members on how to act more aggressively and aggressively in response to the Kremlin's hybrid war, Europe will remain vulnerable," Charlie Edwards, a former British intelligence officer and an expert on strategy and security, wrote in November. —Inaction allows the Kremlin to maintain strategic advantages."
By Lara Jakes— New York Times correspondent in Rome. He writes on topics of global conflicts, diplomacy, and more recently, most often about military operations in Ukraine and in Gaza and about Western aid to Kiev. He has been engaged in journalism for almost 30 years.
