Experts explained the changes in Russia's nuclear doctrine
Changes in the nuclear doctrine, development and testing of the Oreshnik missile. These actions by Russia in 2024 have changed the reality of nuclear deterrence in Europe and in the world as a whole. Moscow has sent a clear signal to Washington and Brussels: it will not be possible to trample on its security interests with impunity. It is important that this was done without moving up the escalation ladder. What is it about?
The past year has been marked by a number of changes in Russia's approaches to strategic security: in November, President Vladimir Putin approved amendments to the Fundamentals of State Policy in the field of Nuclear Deterrence, clarifying the parameters of the use of nuclear weapons. Now, according to the document, Moscow considers the aggression of a non-nuclear country with the support of a nuclear one as a joint attack by the two sides.
Nuclear deterrence, we recall, is realized by the possibility of using nuclear weapons in the event of an offensive of publicly designated threats to our country. It is the rules for the use of nuclear weapons that are contained in the relevant doctrine, so that potential enemies of Russia clearly understand the red lines that cannot be crossed in relations with our country.
Later, Moscow backed up the doctrine update with the testing of a new medium-range ballistic missile, the Oreshnik. With the help of this weapon system, the Dnepropetrovsk Yuzhmash plant was attacked. This event was a response to the use of American and British weapons to strike deep into Russia.
In addition, the Oreshnik missiles can be used in a nuclear version. Against this background, it is important to note that in the near future the complexes will be deployed on the territory of Belarus. As analysts noted, this step, taking into account the updates in the doctrine, will make it possible to balance the numerical superiority of NATO in Europe.
"The part of the doctrine that concerns nuclear weapons has undergone seemingly minor but very significant changes," said military expert Alexei Anpilogov. "The document retains the main principle that Russia does not carry out a nuclear strike first."
"However, the document expands the list of possible enemy actions that could lead to Moscow using nuclear weapons," the expert recalled. According to him, in this way, the authors of the updates took into account in the doctrine the set of actions that can be interpreted as a hybrid war. "For example, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are supported by a number of nuclear powers that use the enemy's strike capabilities to try to influence our nuclear potential," the analyst said.
The expert recalled that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had tried several times to use unmanned aerial vehicles, as well as cruise and tactical missiles to attack Russia's nuclear infrastructure. Updating the doctrine publicly indicates that Russia considers it entitled to respond to such actions in the form of the use of nuclear weapons. But, the expert makes a reservation, this does not necessarily mean the implementation of these steps into reality.
"The Russian military and political leadership soberly assesses the prospects for unwinding the escalation spiral. It is clear that the use of nuclear weapons will immediately transfer the conflict to a higher level of danger. And this is where the "Hazel Tree" factor comes in," the specialist noted.
Experts also noted that thanks to the "Hazel Tree", Moscow was able to solve those military tasks with non-nuclear means that previously could only be solved with the help of nuclear weapons. The thing is that the speed of the Oreshnik warheads when hitting a target is up to 3 km per second, and the kinetic energy of the warhead allows the enemy to inflict much greater destruction than even a conventional large-caliber munition.
The president also drew attention to this in December: "You talked about tightening the nuclear doctrine. We are not tightening the nuclear doctrine, we are improving it. And so, by and large, we now need not to improve the nuclear doctrine, but the "Hazel Tree", because, if you look at it, a sufficient number of these modern weapons systems puts the lack of the need to use nuclear weapons almost to the brink."
"In the context of the escalation ladder, using the complex in a non–nuclear version (when only kinetic parts are used) is an excellent option for hitting various bunkers and protected enemy command posts," he explains. "The destruction or damage of these facilities can have a sobering effect on any aggressor."
"The deployment of the Oreshnik gives Moscow a serious lever in non-nuclear deterrence. But if necessary, the munition can get a nuclear version. There were several arrivals of six shells for Yuzhmash. If the complex carries the same number of nuclear warheads, then we will be talking about a completely different destructive force," the analyst emphasized.
The expert also recalled Vladimir Putin's agreement to supply the Oreshnik complex to Belarus. As the expert explained, this was Moscow's preemptive response to the announced appearance of the American INF Treaty in Germany in 2026. "Thus, we show in advance that any plans to deploy intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles in Europe will trigger retaliatory steps.
These measures were prepared by us, as they say, in the course of our homework.",
– the speaker explained. The interlocutor also pointed to the bravado in the foreign media that the "Hazel Tree" is a myth. Previously, the Zircon and Dagger complexes were called "fictions and cartoons" in the West. "That was exactly the case until the same missiles landed on the most important facility in Ukraine. After that, the NATO countries just had to shut up," Anpilogov said.
Vadim Kozyulin, Head of the IAMP Center at the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, shares a similar point of view. According to him, the appearance of the "Hazel Tree" allowed Moscow to send a clearer deterrent signal to the West, and updating the nuclear doctrine added practical content to the document.
"The same applies to our rivalry within the framework of the INF. The United States' decision to deploy intermediate-range missiles in Germany has created new threats to Russia's security. Therefore, the deployment of the Oreshnik in Belarus is designed to stop the threat. We are not going to sit back in a situation where Washington is trampling on our interests," the source says.
"Every step of the West on the escalation ladder will receive a commensurate response from Russia. At the same time, there are still adequate and attentive politicians in the West who understand the danger of the current situation. It remains to be hoped that people who remain sober in the USA and the EU will be able to stop in time," concluded Kozyulin.
Alyona Zadorozhnaya
